House Prices

Glen_Quagmire

Currently saving for a house and looking around at houses and getting a flavour for prices in certain areas.

What are economists saying regarding house prices at the moment and in the future? Are they still rising or have they leveled off?

Is there any expectation for house prices to fall over the next year or two or will they stay where they are or continue to rise?

snubbleste

johnnyskeleton

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

Currently saving for a house and looking around at houses and getting a flavour for prices in certain areas.

What are economists saying regarding house prices at the moment and in the future? Are they still rising or have they leveled off?

Is there any expectation for house prices to fall over the next year or two or will they stay where they are or continue to rise?

Bertrand Russell said that the problem with the modern world, or in this case the housing market, is that the ignorant are filled with certainty while the wise are paralysed with doubt.

Most estate agents, property supplement journalists etc will say that houses outside dublin are set to rise a fair bit while dublin will increase slowly. Ive never heard an estate agent say prices will go down though.

As for independent economists, I would imagine its hard to tell and they will have differring views. If the economy is generally on the downward slope and the last 2-3 years have been due to panic buying, one would expect prices to decrease.

My take is that the highly coveted 3 bed semi d in a nice dublin suburb will decrease a bit as that has seen ridiculous increases in the lasft few years. I couldnt bet safely on other property types though.

riclad

The price rises in dublin seem to be over ,or slowed down by the 20 per cent deposit rule.
if you wanna buy in the next 3 years just save up as much as you can.
Look at the price register website for the area.s you want to buy .
http://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices/news/

prices may rise in some rural area,s as many people cant afford to buy in dublin.
THE Boom is gone ,eg banks will only lend 3-4 times salary minus 20 per cent .
we have a regulator who is doing his job ,re control of bank lending.if prices go up they,ll probably go up slowly ,due to lending rules by the banks .

MarkAnthony

Unless it's the height of an unprecedented boom - it's not - just go for it and forget about it.

Butters1979

You're asking a very difficult question. It depends as much on where you want to buy and what price bracket you are in.

Are you in a position to buy now and are wondering to go for it? If not it doesn't really matter. I don't think house prices will fall much as demand is still there. Those who have been pushed back by the new rules could well come back in a year with the extra savings needed but the 3.5x salary should stop any large increases again.

If you are ready to go do you think the money you might save by waiting a couple of years will offset the cost of renting for now? Also your mortgage will start, and therefore likely finish, a few years later.

In my opinion if you're good to go, can afford the mortgage and find somewhere you can be happy in for many years (not short term) then just go for it.

Glen_Quagmire

I know it's a difficult question to answer, maybe impossible but I was just looking for people's opinions on this as they may be in the know more than I am.

I'm particularly interested in what economists are saying, I remember reading an article by some English economist in the height of the boom, maybe 2005 and he predicted that the property bubble would burst and thousands of Irish home owners would be in negative equity and end up homeless. I'm sure he wasn't alone in this prediction but the people in power did not listen and we all know what happened.

However, back to today... To answer your question I am not ready to buy yet I'm about 2 years of saving left to do so I'm just trying to gauge if houses I am looking at today in North Dublin and Meath are going to be more or less expensive in 2 years time.

I am planning to get a mortgage on my own so 3.5 to 4 times my salary leaves little choice in today's market.

MarkAnthony

North suburban Dublin is a tough one. I think there are some areas here which are still good value, but then I strongly believe that some areas like Raheny have some bonkers askinging prices. I have to say I think JohnnyS has it right on the button. As for economists, I'll dig out some google terms (my wife works with a load of the TCD ones). However personally I'd just see post #2.

whiskeyman

MarkAnthony wrote: »

but then I strongly believe that some areas like Raheny have some bonkers askinging prices. .

Why you think that?

It's supply and demand and Raheny is a much sought after area.
Well serviced by public transport, good schools, nice village, St Annes Park nearby and also near the coast.
Also seen as a 'good' area, so I think the price is justified.

MarkAnthony

Example:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/179-foxfield-grove-raheny-dublin-5/3344984

This is about 3 streets over from me. My place was c.270k at 1100sqft. turn key condition. Down the road there was a 4/5 bed detached in even better condition that sold for 360K (5th bedroom was an attic conversion so technically a 4 bed).

If you look at some of the asking prices in Bettyglen, IIRC 700K for a 4/5 bed bungalow thing that was looked after but hadn't been redecorated since the 70s. That sort of money in almost any area is silly money and is bubble territory.