General Election 2016- Kildare South

paulie21

Candidates declared:

Martin Heydon FG
Mark Wall LAB
Sean O'Fearhaill FF
Fiona O'Loughlin FF
Fiona McLoughlin Healy FG
Patricia Ryan SF
Mary Kennedy REN
Declan Crowe IND
Joanne Pender IND


I'd expect Heydon, Wall and a fight between the two FFs for last

L1011

Paddy Power's odds which are partially based on the deeper data from the polls they commission and partially from bets being made have Heydon a dead cert, O'Fearghail of FF at 1/3 and Wall at 4/6 with the other FF at 10/11 so they're being cautious enough on who'll get the third

n97 mini

Anyone know anything about the Renua candidate? Unlike the KN candidate I haven't heard of her before.

H.E. Pennypacker

Is Joanne Pender running?

L1011

Going on her Facebook, no. Candidates have until tomorrow to declare I think

glued

paulie21 wrote: »

Candidates declared:

Martin Heydon FG
Mark Wall LAB
Sean O'Fearhaill FF
Fiona O'Loughlin FF
Fiona McLoughlin Healy FG
Patricia Ryan SF
Mary Kennedy REN
Declan Crowe IND
Joanne Pender IND


I'd expect Heydon, Wall and a fight between the two FFs for last

I think Wall probably won't get in. Monasterevin and its environs are gone so Wall will be relying heavily on Athy. Sean O Fearghail and Heydon are certainties to get back in with the remaining seat between Wall, McLoughlin-Healy and O'Loughlin.

I think both McLoughlinn-Healy and O'Loughlin will both out poll Wall. Both are well known in Newbridge and Kildare. I'd say Jack would have been in trouble if he was running too. Can't see Labour picking up the transfers to get in.

Sinn Fein have made a complete mess of the election by trying to get Sorcha O'Neill to run over Mark Lynch, the local counciller. In fighting and a lack of an agreement has led to Patricia Ryan running who hasn't much of a hope of getting in.

I'd be shocked if Heydon and O'Fearghail aren't neck and neck at the top with Heydon likely to top the poll. Then I'd say O'Loughlin will get in.

2 FF and 1 FG for me.

Ken.

H.E. Pennypacker wrote: »

Is Joanne Pender running?

Joanne is a county councillor. She's up for re-election in 2 years time.

glued

ken wrote: »

Joanne is a county councillor. She's up for re-election in 2 years time.

She originally declared but must have changed her mind. I think it's a good decision. She needs to build up more of a reputation. McLoughlin-Healy has a massive social media presence and that may be not be enough to get her in against a good veteran counciller in O'Loughlin who topped the poll in the local council elections in 2014.

Badly Drunk Boy

This is the list of candidates for Kildare South, according to the RTÉ website:

Martin Heydon FG
Mark Wall LAB
Sean O'Fearhaill FF
Fiona O'Loughlin FF
Fiona McLoughlin Healy FG
Patricia Ryan SF
Mary Kennedy REN
Declan Crowe IND
Suzanne McEneaney GREEN

Badly Drunk Boy

Has anyone seen the Fine Gael campaign Video for Marty McHeydon?

I know who I'll be voting for! (Hint: Not him)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6FkRjjGsBM

paulie21

Heard that Susanne McEneaney on the radio this morning. A Belfast woman living in Dublin with no Kildare roots. She said she won't be knocking on doors either not sure where she expects to get votes from.

L1011

Greens are putting up an expensive and likely pointless show of having a candidate in every constituency to try justify their existence. They're going to fail to get expenses in most of them and if they get hit with the costs for the ridiculous RTE court case I could see the party having to go bankrupt.

Nokia6230i

Friend of mine in Kilberry says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

n97 mini

http://www.oireachtas.ie/members/default.asp?housetype=0&HouseNum=30&disp=const

Badly Drunk Boy

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Friend of mine in Kilberry says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

Probably. About 7000 votes were transferred to the new Laois constituency (Laois and Offaly have split up), although 5000 were transferred into Kildare South from Kildare North.

A friend of mine from Monasterevin didn't realise that he was in the Laois constituency until I told him. "Oh! I was wondering why I didn't recognise anyone on the posters."

Nokia6230i

Badly Drunk Boy wrote: »

Probably. About 7000 votes were transferred to the new Laois constituency (Laois and Offaly have split up), although 5000 were transferred into Kildare South from Kildare North.

A friend of mine from Monasterevin didn't realise that he was in the Laois constituency until I told him. "Oh! I was wondering why I didn't recognise anyone on the posters."

Think this happened in 2013 was it?

Shows importance of being politicised as it would've been well flagged by County Council notices etc. in local paper and on local radio too.

When asked to make submissions it's so important to do so & things like e-Petitions, actual tangible ones too and ones own views are so important in the process.

Too late now to reverse the issue but if I was ignorant of the issue I'd be hopping both with the situation and scarleh' for myself!

I'm in a different, neighbouring constituency; we weren't consulted about East Carlow being brought back in but there is talk of us taking Graiguecuellen and, I think Killeshin back from Co.Laois and possibly Crettyard too.

The trade-off seems to be losing South Kilkenny to Waterford; along with the Roscommon-Westmeath issue there's ructions on basis of both rates, roots & GAA over these boundary changes.

I'd also question wtaf a Laois TD like Brian Stanley or Charlie Flanagan knows or cares about Kilberry etc.; I doubt they're overly happy either.

L1011

I don't think the boundary commission take public submissions in to account really. They needed to reduce the numbers in Kildare North by a fair bit and South a little - but not enough to get an 8th TD in the county. Little else they could do.

The council boundary changes proposed are handled entirely differently

StupidLikeAFox

glued wrote: »

I'd be shocked if Heydon and O'Fearghail aren't neck and neck at the top with Heydon likely to top the poll. Then I'd say O'Loughlin will get in.

2 FF and 1 FG for me.

Looks like you nailed it glued

glued

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

Looks like you nailed it glued

Still not there yet but pretty close. O'Loughlin performed a lot better than I expected but she really done well considering it's her first time running. McLoughlin-Healy didn't do as well as I thought and Wall losing Monastervin undoubtedly cost him a lot of votes.

Still not there yet but I expect both FF candidates to get there.

paulie21

Looks like O'Fearhaill will be 1300 votes ahead of Wall after final count. Disappointing for Wall, is it the first time Athy has no TD