Accumulators v Singles

Charity10k

For the sake of argument lets agree that any bet that requires more than one thing to occur is an accumulator.

Some bookies offer a bet that requires two things to happen in the one game for you to win but this is a special offer and in effect is a double (accumulator).

I am firmly of the opinion that in the long run you will make more money betting singles versus accumulators but I don't bet enough to have a really statistically relevant sample size (there are very few people who do).

If you were to try to convince someone that they could actually make a profit long term by sports betting and the two most important changes that they would have to make would be to bet singles only and use good bankroll management how would you go about trying to convince them to switch away from their weekly 5 fold accumulator?

diomed

Each bet is a separate event. If the odds in the accumulator are generous then I would do singles and an accumulator.
The accumulator just multiplies your advantage or disadvantage.
I once won €2,850 for €10. The bet was two €20 singles at 25/1 and 10/1, and a €10 double 25/1, 10/1. (€10 at 25/1=€260; €260 at 10/1=€2,850)

Charity10k

I doubt for that bet you used proper bankroll management as you would need to have a large betting bank to allow a €10 bet on that accumulator.

The point is that you hit a large payout on the accumuator that time but you would have lost a lot of similar bets so your profit much less.

The question is if you bet singles on all your selections over the the last 3 years instead of some singles and some accumulators would you have a bigger or smaller loss?

Now take out that one double that won and look at your profit or loss. Probably doesn't look too good if you like those type of bets.

I understand the point of view that its only a tenner and its a bit of fun but if you are taking the time to read this forum you must have more of an interest in making a long term profit than the average punter you see in a bookie shop.

Which is the smarter play bearing in mind that you can risk a larger percentage of your betting bank on a 1/2 shot than you can on a 20/1 shot?

diomed

I have few bets. I've been betting for 40+years.
Most of my bets are singles on Betfair. I seldom do accumulators/multiples.

When I got downloads from Paddy Power and Betfair I was in profit on both covering the full period supplied (many years.)
My reading about successful gamblers is most of their profit comes from exotic bets / multiples / accumulators.

From memory my near misses / wins
€20 win 25/1, €10 win 10/1; €10 double 25/1 and 10/1 <-successful €3,550
7 horse small stakes Canadian (?); first 6 won, 7th lost <- a few hundred € won
£20 four horse accumulator: first 3 won; 4/7; 12/1; 14/1. 9/4 fav lost in 4th leg - possible €19,700 win
£50 double: first horse won 20/1; 2nd horse 11/1 beaten a head. (also had £40 at 25/1 on the first horse.)
€20 four horse accumulator: three won, one lost - possible €66k
€30 three horse accumulator won <-paid €1,100+
€20 four horse accumulator - three won, the loser became European sprint champion that year!
€100 win double 4/1, 9/4 won <- €1,525 profit (I was certain the 9/4 horse would win and I wanted a decent bet on it - €500 rolling on to it was that bet.)

If all odds are good in the bet it is a bet. If one is bad odds I will trim my bet or put in another choice. I will work out the accumulator using the odds from different bookies to calculate the best return (or the smallest stake). And I will check the maximum payout.

I understand some people will say e.g. if you do a €20 double at 20/1 and 20/1 it is bad bankroll management.
Their idea is you have €420 from the first win, and you would never put €420 on a horse at 20/1 in a single to win (i.e. you would not do the second half of the bet).

I have put €1,000 on a horse. It won.
I've put €715 on a horse at 16/1. It lost.
I've put €182 on a horse at 75s. It won.

It is not my practice to fill out multiples slips in bookies, but if I think I have an edge I will try to get paid.

My bets will be on horses where I know something others do not know (and I have no inside information.)

No I have not worked out if I make a profit on all my doubles, om all my trebles, on all my fourfolds and so on. I make a profit.

Charity10k

It sounds like what you are doing works for you. Hope Paddy Power does not close your account or Betfair does not hammer you with a massive premium charge - the price of success.

Good luck with your future bets. We have a slightly different approach but so long as we end up profitable at the end of the year that is the important thing.

I only bet on events that I can price up myself which excludes horse racing as there are too many unknown variables for me to place a sizable bet as I can't really form an opinion on the value in the market from the resources that are publicly available but there is a lot of money there to be made for a select few.

diomed

Luckily I do not feel an urge to bet, and only have a small number of bets a year. This contrasts with years ago when I went to a race meeting every Saturday and Sunday throughout one flat season, about 30 weekends in a row. Now I am not as enthusiastic and happily never worry about bets. I worry before a bet, but when I place it I accept the result without much emotion.

Horse pedigree are my hobby. I spend an incredible amount of time on it. The only advantage is it helps me lose interest in a few horses in a race, and reducing the field improves your chances.

mountai

I remember many years ago having a conversation with John Corcoran who was (and still is ) a partner in PPs. "The gambler we fear most are the Chinese , they never do multiple bets"

Charity10k

When you see pretty much every bookmaker trying to get you to place a 5 fold accumulator with the carrot of getting your stake back as a free bet if 1 selection loses you know they are making ridiculous money from accumulators.

This in my opinion is the single biggest reason that only 2% of sports bettors are profitable. More than 25% of them have enough knowledge to to beat the bookmaker if they changed their betting habits and had a bit of discipline.