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Hurricane Alex

  • 13-01-2016 8:59pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭


    What the-??? :eek:

    So the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season is six months away, and yet we have the first named storm of the year already. Subtropical storm Alex (which as an invest, was actually producing hurricane force winds until its trajectory changed slightly yesterday and carried it over cooler waters) has just been classified by the NHC.

    203340W5_NL_sm.gif

    This is the first time a tropical or subtropical system has existed in January since 1978. That season was above average for activity due to a receding El Nino - parallels to be drawn with this year, given that El Nino 2015-16 has peaked and some are suggesting the Spring Unpredictability Barrier be damned, that a La Nina may be on its way.

    Regardless, the track of this storm is very interesting. It looks like it's going to end up making a beeline for Greenland (it'll be post-tropical by that stage) - what kind of effects can we expect on our weather here if that happens? I seem to remember that paradoxically, a hurricane remnant making landfall over Iceland a few summers ago led to some incredibly settled and clear weather for us in Ireland. Certainly if this hits Greenland, it throws a spanner or two into the works for those of us rooting for a nice Greenland block and some wintry weather here :/

    Interesting stuff nonetheless!


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ruL9EvG.gif

    Best Track now has Alex at 75 knots so should be classified as a hurricane soon. January 14th. Amazing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    quite amazing to see this sitting in the atlantic at this time of year. Maq, with its current trajectory, would this have any influence on the atlantic mild pushing back in over us early next week i.e. pulling in the mild southwesterlys as it passes north or causing some sort of blocking to the atlantic:confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    quite amazing to see this sitting in the atlantic at this time of year. Maq, with its current trajectory, would this have any influence on the atlantic mild pushing back in over us early next week i.e. pulling in the mild southwesterlys as it passes north or causing some sort of blocking to the atlantic:confused:

    The models show it heading north and getting absorbed by low pressure south of Greenland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
    1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

    Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
    A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
    of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
    trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
    center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to
    have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
    upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
    C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The
    resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
    tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these
    changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
    of the Azores islands.

    The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
    analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional
    intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
    over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,
    the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
    extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
    at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
    its identity after 48 hours.

    The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is
    being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
    around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the
    cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
    over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very
    similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
    of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.

    Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
    1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
    1955.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    On Netweather

    "On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning.

    The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores.
    Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
    Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭B17G


    An out of season hurricane (Pali) passed westwards to the south of the Hawaiian Islands in the last couple of days. Now only a tropical depression.

    Covered by the CPHC. It's hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

    http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭B17G


    Alex seems to have a very offset circulation. Appears almost open to the south of the eye. IR image 9pm.

    374968.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭RandomAccess




  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,288 ✭✭✭mickmackey1


    Shouldn't this be in the Snooker thread?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Have a look at the new track forecast, showing a very sharp westward hook just south of Greenland, before it gets absorbed. How would this affect Ireland's weather, the polar vortex, etc? Might we still get some clear weather as a result of Alex?
    Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
    motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
    slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
    there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
    reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
    northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
    in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
    the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
    the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
    central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
    regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
    scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
    consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭B17G


    Image at 12pm. Just about maintaining hurricane status. Winds 75 mph.

    375050.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Alex has weakened to a tropical storm and will transition to extratropical soon.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    NOAA Projected track.

    hrRQOC4.jpg?1


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,141 ✭✭✭Stealthfins


    Will Alex send in a ground swell to the west coast of Ireland ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,300 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Its likely but not really any impact as tides are median at present. Maybe some big waves.

    Last Christmas may have been a different kettle of fish.


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