Hurricane Alex

hatrickpatrick

What the-??? :eek:

So the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season is six months away, and yet we have the first named storm of the year already. Subtropical storm Alex (which as an invest, was actually producing hurricane force winds until its trajectory changed slightly yesterday and carried it over cooler waters) has just been classified by the NHC.



This is the first time a tropical or subtropical system has existed in January since 1978. That season was above average for activity due to a receding El Nino - parallels to be drawn with this year, given that El Nino 2015-16 has peaked and some are suggesting the Spring Unpredictability Barrier be damned, that a La Nina may be on its way.

Regardless, the track of this storm is very interesting. It looks like it's going to end up making a beeline for Greenland (it'll be post-tropical by that stage) - what kind of effects can we expect on our weather here if that happens? I seem to remember that paradoxically, a hurricane remnant making landfall over Iceland a few summers ago led to some incredibly settled and clear weather for us in Ireland. Certainly if this hits Greenland, it throws a spanner or two into the works for those of us rooting for a nice Greenland block and some wintry weather here

Interesting stuff nonetheless!

maquiladora

Best Track now has Alex at 75 knots so should be classified as a hurricane soon. January 14th. Amazing.

howlinwolf

quite amazing to see this sitting in the atlantic at this time of year. Maq, with its current trajectory, would this have any influence on the atlantic mild pushing back in over us early next week i.e. pulling in the mild southwesterlys as it passes north or causing some sort of blocking to the atlantic

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

quite amazing to see this sitting in the atlantic at this time of year. Maq, with its current trajectory, would this have any influence on the atlantic mild pushing back in over us early next week i.e. pulling in the mild southwesterlys as it passes north or causing some sort of blocking to the atlantic

The models show it heading north and getting absorbed by low pressure south of Greenland.

maquiladora

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to
have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The
resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these
changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
of the Azores islands.

The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional
intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,
the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
its identity after 48 hours.

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is
being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.

Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
1955.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Meteorite58

On Netweather

"On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning.

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."

B17G

An out of season hurricane (Pali) passed westwards to the south of the Hawaiian Islands in the last couple of days. Now only a tropical depression.

Covered by the CPHC. It's hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

B17G

Alex seems to have a very offset circulation. Appears almost open to the south of the eye. IR image 9pm.

RandomAccess

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/14/world/hurricane-alex-atlantic/

mickmackey1

Shouldn't this be in the Snooker thread?

hatrickpatrick

Have a look at the new track forecast, showing a very sharp westward hook just south of Greenland, before it gets absorbed. How would this affect Ireland's weather, the polar vortex, etc? Might we still get some clear weather as a result of Alex?

Alex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial
motion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track
slightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,
there are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then
northwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow
in the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over
the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,
the center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the
central Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and
regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the
consensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

B17G

Image at 12pm. Just about maintaining hurricane status. Winds 75 mph.

maquiladora

Alex has weakened to a tropical storm and will transition to extratropical soon.

Meteorite58

NOAA Projected track.

Stealthfins

Will Alex send in a ground swell to the west coast of Ireland ?

pauldry

Its likely but not really any impact as tides are median at present. Maybe some big waves.

Last Christmas may have been a different kettle of fish.