RBS - Sell everything!

EndaHonesty

Anybody see this?;

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Pretty dramatic statement to make.

Are we heading for a "cataclysmic year"?

newacc2015

EndaHonesty wrote: »

Anybody see this?;

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Pretty dramatic statement to make.

Are we heading for a "cataclysmic year"?

US junk bonds are predicting around a 45% chance of default in the US according to the Bloomberg. Like the US economy is performing stronger than expected, so it is hard to tell why a recession might occur. Probably the risk of a lot of oil job losses.

The stock market bursting is understandable as QE was inflating a lot of share prices.

FURET

Personally, I'm hoping for a very steep fall so that I can load up on cheap shares. Bears are where wealth is made for those with the right temperament.

Zascar

Money to be made shorting?

eamo17o

I'm considering buying etfs that short stock such as ProShares UltraShort etfs - Anybody use these before?

daveirl

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celtic_oz

Jim Rickards: Fed raised rates too late..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0FJAeVqAk

Roonbox

daveirl wrote: »

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I'm not sure about that Dave, its been a Bull market for 7 years straight.

daveirl

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Blacktie.

daveirl wrote:

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Two months is hardly a time frame to consider profits locked in

ranger4

Uncertainties with Brexit will have dampening effect for financials including bkir which is exposed to uk market, would imagine many investors/traders will book profits with recent rally expecting indices/stocks to trade lower over summer.

jon1981

ranger4 wrote: »

Uncertainties with Brexit will have dampening effect for financials including bkir which is exposed to uk market

Interested to learn more about BKIR exposure, do you have any good sources?

cheers

Sonnenblumen

ranger4 wrote: »

Uncertainties with Brexit will have dampening effect for financials including bkir which is exposed to uk market, would imagine many investors/traders will book profits with recent rally expecting indices/stocks to trade lower over summer.

AFAIK the only thing going in the UK for them was one of 3 banks providing retail banking services (Savings & Current a/c's ?) through the UK Post Office Network, which is unlikely to give rise to any concerns about a possible 'exposure'?

Amirani

jon1981 wrote: »

Interested to learn more about BKIR exposure, do you have any good sources?

cheers

Half of BKIR's mortgage book (GBP denominated). Big exposure.

b4bmm

Such bull**** headlines.
You could find an equally convincing article that would say the exact opposite probably on the same day, through a different media provider.

Media is a business.
You only have to pay to get an article like this puslished. Don't buy into it.

1st dalkey dalkey

Cataclysmic?
Well, for a while it did look that way if you were deep into oil, but that seems to have recovered, for now at least.
Basic metals have also taken a heavy fall and no sign of any big rebound as yet.
But a well diversified portfolio is probably doing ok.
The big money from QE's worldwide is a worry. When that money starts to run for cover there will be a big drop. But where is the cover to run to? As long as rates stay 'lower for longer' I wont panic.

catbear

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

Cataclysmic?
Well, for a while it did look that way if you were deep into oil, but that seems to have recovered, for now at least.
Basic metals have also taken a heavy fall and no sign of any big rebound as yet.
But a well diversified portfolio is probably doing ok.
The big money from QE's worldwide is a worry. When that money starts to run for cover there will be a big drop. But where is the cover to run to? As long as rates stay 'lower for longer' I wont panic.

Unrestricted investment into China.

1st dalkey dalkey

I think, at the moment, there is a lot more coming out of China then going in. There is a reason for that.
When their own feel it a good idea to get some of their money out, it doesn't breed great confidence that there will be a great rush into China. At least until their markets are less centrally controlled.
China will open up more going forward, but it will be a slow and controlled process. It is a very different society to ours.