Storm Frank - Temperature Rise in The North Pole

Easterly Beasterly

I read an article in the Washington Post online earlier and thought it was interesting, I remember it being mentioned here before that when there is sudden warming in polar regions, it can lead to colder conditions in this part of the world. Is this what the article is about? I follow the like of Joe Bastardi on Twitter but haven't seen much about it, I'd love to get opinion on it and whether anything like this has happened before and what the results were?


Here's the link

"Big Icelandic storms are common in winter, but this one may rank among the strongest and will draw northward an incredible surge of warmth pushing temperatures at the North Pole over 50 degrees above normal. This is mind-boggling.

And the storm will batter the United Kingdom, reeling from recent flooding, with another round of rain and wind.
Computer model simulations show the storm, sweeping across the north central Atlantic today, rapidly intensifying along a jet stream ripping above the ocean at 230 mph.
The storm’s pressure is forecast by the GFS model to plummet more than 50 millibars in 24 hours between Monday night and Tuesday night, easily meeting the criteria of a ‘bomb cyclone’ (a drop in pressure of at least 24 mb in 24 hours),

By Wednesday morning, when the storm reaches Iceland and nears maximum strength, its minimum pressure is forecast to be near 923 mb, which would rank among the great storms of the North Atlantic. (Note: there is some uncertainty as to how much it will intensify. The European model only drops the minimum pressure to around 936 mb, which is strong but not that unusual). Winds of hurricane force are likely to span hundreds of miles in the North Atlantic.

Environmental blogger Robert Scribbler notes this storm will be linked within a “daisy chain” of two other powerful North Atlantic low pressure systems forming a “truly extreme storm system.” He adds: “The Icelandic coast and near off-shore regions are expected to see heavy precipitation hurled over the island by 90 to 100 mile per hour or stronger winds raging out of 35-40 foot seas. Meanwhile, the UK will find itself in the grips of an extraordinarily strong southerly gale running over the backs of 30 foot swells.”

The UK Met Office cautions “a swathe of gale and severe gale force winds” may blast parts of the west and northern UK while heavy rains, capable of flooding, drench western and northern Britain. Parts of England, Scotland and Wales are only now recovering from “very serious flooding” over the weekend.


The worst flooding in 70 years hit England in recent days, prompting new discussion over flood defenses in Parliament. Hundreds of residents have been evacuated, but more rain is forecasted. (Reuters)
Ahead of the storm, the surge of warm air making a beeline towards the North Pole is astonishing. In the animation below, watch the warm temperature departures from normal, portrayed by red shades, explode towards the Pole between Monday and Wednesday.

Temperature differences from normal Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday over the northern hemisphere high latitudes as simulated by GFS model. (WeatherBell.com)
It’s as if a bomb went off. And, in fact, it did. The exploding storm acts a remarkably efficient heat engine, drawing warm air from the tropics to the top of the Earth.

The GFS model projects the temperature at the North Pole to reach near freezing or 32 degrees early Wednesday. Consider the average winter temperature there is around 20 degrees below zero. If the temperature rises to freezing, it would signify a departure from normal of over 50 degrees."

Oneiric 3

GFS maxima forecast over the next 5 days. Certainly progging temps near or even above 0c right up to the pole.

M.T. Cranium

It's good news for anyone looking for later cold and snow in western Europe. Warm air that gets trapped in the polar regions can only lead to one thing -- blocking highs.