Saturday 12/12/15

Copper_pipe

Got word from the Ferguson yard that Robertstown will win the 2:05 @ Doncaster. The whole yard is having a big punt on it. 9/2 into 3/1

Cheltenham Previews will be posted in the morning. :cool:

madmoose

Cheers copper,

Francie Barrett

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Got word from the Ferguson yard that Robertstown will win the 2:05 @ Doncaster. The whole yard is having a big punt on it. 9/2 into 3/1

Cheltenham Previews will be posted in the morning. :cool:

2 mile juvenile hurdle? that is right up his alley!

Copper_pipe

12:05 Triumph Hurdle Trial

The triumph hurdle trial is a decent race. It looks a 3 horse race on form. The three being, Adrian Du Pont, Sceau Royal and Leoncavallo. They are all very closely matched. Adrian Du Pont was a very unlucky 2nd to Sceau Royal on his U.K debut. He hit the 3rd last, he got cut off at the 2nd last and he rallied to be only beaten by a nose on the line. The winner Sceau Royal bumped him before the line and Adrian Du Pont was awarded the race in the stewards room. It was the right decision as Adrian Du Pont was getting on top. Adrian Du Pont looks the better horse too. He pulled very hard as they went very slow up front, that used up a lot of energy and was only beaten a nose in the race itself.

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Leoncavallo who has won 5 races on the trot, gamely beat Sceau Royal last time out. He looked beaten and he fought back to win on the line. There really isn’t much between these three horses. There was only a nose between Adrian Du Pont and Sceau Royal and there was only a nose between Sceau Royal and Leoncavallo. Not certain this track will suit Leoncavallo, all of his wins have come at flat tracks. He is a flat bred too, they don’t do too well at this track. A faster pace and stiff track today will bring out the best in Adrian Du Pont. I think he’s the best of the three but only just.

Selection: Adrian Du Pont 11/8

12:40 Raymond Mould Memorial Novice Chase

The world hurdle winner of 2014 More Of That really should win this race bar a fall. Padge maybe the one to chase him home for the forecast but this race is not a race to bet in.

Selection: More Of That 1/3 – No bet

1:15 Unicorn Handicap Chase

This is a very tough race to find the winner in. A lot of these have all run against each other several times and there are no real up and coming horses in the race. I like three horses in this race and they are Astracad, Eastlake and Bold Henry. Astracad won this race in 2011 and was placed in 2013 and also in 2014. He’s 2lb lower than when he won and he’s only 1lb higher than when he was 2nd in this race last season. His most recent run was very eye catching. He was 5th behind 3 of today’s rivals (Keen Haul, Pearls Legend, Going Concern) over course and distance. He gets a nice swing in the weights with them today. He also gets a nice swing in the weights with Eastlake and Workbench on a previous run. It’s more so of them going up the weights than him going down the weights, which is always a good thing. He holds his form well and this soft ground will suit. For a horse that has never finished out of the first 3 in the race in 4 attempts, he is sure to give you a good run for your money. 10/1 is a nice price about him too.

Astracad (R Hatch)

Eastlake was 2nd to Next Sensation in the Grand Annual chase at the march festival. He’s much better in the weights with that rival today. He is back down to the make that he ran on that day. He won this race 2 years ago off 3lb lower. He may still need to come down the weights a bit more to win but he has a place chance. Bold Henry is probably the dark horse in the race. He runs best when fresh. He loves the course and he won here in great style last year. He won that race after being off the track 6 months. His best form comes when fresh, he never seems to run well afterward. Again today he is having his first run since April. This is the freshest he’s ever been. He is a shade high in the weights but the money has come from him. That is a good sign given his shrewd connections who love to have a punt.

Selection: Bold Henry 6/1 & Astracad 10/1

1:50 Grade 3 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

This is one of the big races of the day. It’s a wide open handicap chase. There are so many horses in with a chance of this. The Paddy Power Chase is the key form race in regards to this race. The top weight Sound Investment has really improved over the past year for his trainer Paul Nicholls. He won the Old Roan Chase off 11 stone 3lb, he finished 3 and a half lengths in front of today’s rival Buywise. Sound Investment was giving away 8 lb to Buywise that day. Sound Investments most recent run came at this track in November in the Paddy Power Chase. He ran a cracking race off top weight and he only just missed out on winning. He was only beaten a 1/2l by Buywise and only beat a further 3/4l by the winner Annacotty. Sound Investment was giving Buywise 11lb that day and he was giving today’s rival Annacotty 12lb. He’s 1lb better off with Buywise and 2lb better off with Annacotty today.

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Sound Investment has proven he can carry big weights and he should reverse placings with those rivals today. Art Mauresque was getting 12lb from Sound Investment that day and gets a further 3lb from him today. Sound Investment did finish well ahead of him though and Art Mauresque won’t like this soft ground. Irish Cavalier looked all over the winner that day but he faded out of contention late on. His trainer has not hit form yet so I think it’s best to wait until they show positive signs. Johns Spirit was 10th in that race too. He was beaten a fair ways but he has a 5lb swing in the weights with Sound Investment and also 7lb swing with Annacotty and a 6lb swing with Buywise. John Spirit does much better on this new course at Cheltenham than the old course though. I’d say he’s about half a stone better on this. It’s odd but for whatever reason he goes much better on this course and he has won three times on it. He and Sound Investment are the ones to take out of that key form race.

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There is a horse in this though who did not run in the race, he is a very dark horse indeed. He is the Irish raider Mozoltov who comes from the mighty Willie Mullins yard and he will be ridden by Ruby Walsh. Mozoltov showed top class form as a novice hurdler and chaser. He beat 4 time grade 1 winner Don Cossack over hurdles once off level weights. He is having his first run back today from a layoff but there is no better trainer than Willie Mullins to ready a horse like this. He has been banging in the winners of late, he is showing a 42% strike rate. He’s had 11 winners in the past 14 days and Ruby has been riding out of his skin too. Showing a 58% strike rate in the last 14 days. Mozoltov has the form to win this race and he gets to run off a nice weight. If he retains his ability I think he’ll go very close. The ground will suit and the vibes are good. He has been backed from 20/1 into 10/1 over the past two days.

Selection: Mozoltov 10/1

Outsider: John’s Spirit 16/1

2:25 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

On paper this race looks a 3 horse race between Unowhatimeanharry, Final Nudge and Ennistown. Unowhatimeanharry has gone from strength to strength this season in handicap hurdles. The addition of a tongue tie has brought about a lot of improvement from the horse. He won a race with a big field here back in November and then followed up at the Newbury Hennessy meeting. He demolished a 8 runner field and he could have won by a distance he was eased down after jumping the last to win by a very cosy 4l. The form of those races has not worked out and the horses he beat are not world beaters. The way he won was very impressive though. He changes from handicap company to novice company today. It’s a step up in class if anything. He can run here without a penalty for his last win though. He is sure to go very close again. I could not back him at even money though.

Unowhatimeanharry ridden by Noel Fehily wins the bet365.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race during the bet365 Festival Thursday at Newbury Racecourse. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday November 26, 2015. See PA story RACING Newbury. Photo credit should read: Adam Davy/PA Wire

Ennistown is another handicap hurdle horse who reverts to novice company. His run last time out was good and he was unlucky not to win. The winner of that race is only ordinary though. Ennistown takes a big step up in distance today too, I’m not confident that he will see out the trip.

Final Nudge is the horse I really like in this. He unlike the other two main contenders has been running in top novice company all along and he is battle hardened. Unowhatimeanharry has yet to really come off the bridle this season. Final Nudge will definitely change that today. Final Nudge has some really good pieces of form. He was fourth in one of last seasons best bumper’s. He just finished behind Altior and the race was won by the unbeaten Barters Hill. Both of those has won multiple times since and both are the best two novices that we have seen this season in the U.K. Final Nudge was beaten 9l on his hurdle debut by It’s a close call. That horse won by 17l recently and he also looks a top novice to follow. The horse that Final Nudge finished in front of that day Abijan has won twice since.

Final-Nudge

Final Nudge has won his last two novice hurdles in good style. He’s looked beat on both occasions but he never gives up and ran all the way to the line to win. He beat Whataknight 2 runs back by 10l and that horse ran away with a race at Taunton during the week. On his last run he came up against the odds on favourite Tippmanboy. Final Nudge was very game that day and he and the 2nd pulled 75l ahead of the rest. Final Nudge will love this course and he will relish this ground. He has to improve again to beat unowhatimeanharry but I wouldn’t put it past him. All of these horses are stepping up to 3 mile for the first time. Ennistown looks a doubtful stayer. Final Nudge and Unowhatimeanharry should fight out the finish of this race. Final Nudge is a cracking each way price at 6/1.

Selection: Final Nudge 6/1

3:00 Grade 2 International Hurdle

This is the biggest race of the day. It sees last years triumph hurdle winner Peace and Co face off against the Willie Mullins trained Sempre Medici and Hargam. Peace and Co is unbeaten in 4 starts over hurdles. This ex French horse looked a top prospect early on last season in novice company. He won by 19l on debut and then he won the Triumph Hurdle trial at this track before going on to win the Triumph Hurdle here. He beat stablemates Top Notch and Hargam that day. He battled with Top Notch all the way up the hill and he came out on top. Hargam was a further 4l back in 3rd.

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Hargam disappointed on his seasonal reappearance recently but Top Notch has shown a good level of form in graded races. He finished runner-up to Irving at Wincanton and he then finished runner-up behind Irish raider Identity Thief. The winner beat him fair and square that day. Old Guard finished 9th in the Triumph behind Peace and Co. He has won twice this season in handicap company and is also in the field today. So the form of the Triumph hurdle looks decent. There is sure to be more to come from Peace and Co this season and he is back at the scene of his greatest victory. 10/11 is not a great price though saying that. He is also taking on older horses for the first time. I don’t think he is the cert that a lot of people think.

The Irish Raider Sempre Medici who is trained by Willie Mullins has some decent form in the book. He ran in the top novice hurdles last season and he ran here in the County hurdle over course and distance. He was running off a very high weight that day and he found all sorts of trouble in running. I think he might have won if he got a clear run. The form of that race is strong too. The 3rd went on to win the Galway Hurdle and the 4th was 2nd in the Galway hurdle and 2nd in the Melbourne Cup on the flat. Sempre Medici’s top novice form came against the likes of Jollyallan and Nichols Canyon. Nicholls Canyon recently beat the Champion Hurdle winner Faugheen. That form would be much better then the form of the Triumph Hurdle.

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It’s somewhat hard to weigh up who is better Peace and Co or Sempre Medici but there is one line of form that suggests Sempre Medici may have the advantage. He beat Identity Thief by 5l in a grade 2 novice on soft ground last season. That’s the same horse that recently beat Top Notch by 4l. Given that there was only a neck between Top Notch and Peace and Co in the triumph last season we can say that Sempre Medici has a great chance of beating Peace and Co. Natural improvement is sure to make Peace and Co a better horse too though. Sempre Medici has had a recent prep run on the flat whereas Peace and Co hasn’t run in 274 days. Peace and Co may end up being the better horse but today I’d rather back Sempre Medici at 5/1 than back Peace and Co at 10/11.

Selection: Sempre Medici 5/1

3:35 OLBG Mares Handicap Hurdle

This looks a tricky mares handicap hurdle. Top weights The Govaness and Broxbourne have the best form in the race but they have to carry a lot of weight in bad ground. Ron’s Dream won a handicap hurdle here at the November meeting and we tipped him up at 25/1. I think he may be too high in the weights now to win this but he could place. The two I like in this are Lily Waugh and Briery Belle. Lily Waugh has improved for the adoption of more patient tactics of late and has won two in a row. She still looks on a good mark, off 8lb higher than when beating a well-handicapped horse with something in hand at Taunton last time, the two of them pulled well clear that day. The track and fast pace will suit her.

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Briery Belle has yet to win a race in seven starts but she has shown some decent form. Her two 2nd’s last season prove that she can win a race. Her seasonal debut was a good run, she was taking on the boys in a top handicap hurdle that A Hare Breath won. That horse was placed her again yesterday. The form of that race has worked out well overall. This horse been crying out for a step up in trip. I can see her running a big race at a big price. Her half-sister Briery Queen was stepped up in trip recently and she won. Briery Belle has a very low racing weight and has no problem with the ground.

Selection: Lily Waugh 8/1

Outsider: Briery Belle 14/1

Johner

Agree on Final Nudge, the 13/2 on bet365 looks far too big. I think he's a lovely prospect and it looks a weak enough Grade 2. I couldn't touch the fav at the prices.

Johner

Sceau Royal confirms he's the better horse.

uxiant

Think there's a few who won't like the ground in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and although I already have Little Jon backed at 9/1 but with some firms going 4 places with only 14 runners it would be foolish not to look for some each way value. Tenor Niverais has a similar profile to last years winner for the same trainer and will relish these conditions so he could go well at a double figure price. Doctor Phoenix is also interesting but I would be a bit worried about his lack of experience in a big handicap. Any thoughts on Texas Jack? His run behind Devil's Bride looks quite good now and he was travelling well behind Don Cossack before weakening over a trip too far for him. A testing 2m 5f will suit. However he looks on the slide and 150 may be still too high for him at this stage of his career.

BorneTobyWilde

Demonstration 9-1 7.45
Has shown some real ability on last two outings over c&d. Runs here off bottom weight and
I think it can progress further and go close here .
9-1 is good ew value

1pt ew at 9-1

BorneTobyWilde

Desert Cry 33-1 1.15
I think over this distance on this ground we will see a good performance.
I like it's place chances a lot .

33-1 1pt ew

BumperD

Thats an outrageous comb-over that Nico is sporting

Nulty

I have the feeling that Mozoltof has made the trip with Sempre Medici. Wouldn't be that keen on his chances after that layoff.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

I have the feeling that Mozoltof has made the trip with Sempre Medici. Wouldn't be that keen on his chances after that layoff.

Think you may have been right Nulty.




I suppose the tip there was Johnson getting down and doing 10 stone

Nulty

I was on Tenor Nivernais, having seriously considered Village Vic earlier in the week

Winner did it well, obviously well handicapped at 138!

Copper_pipe

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Got word from the Ferguson yard that Robertstown will win the 2:05 @ Doncaster. The whole yard is having a big punt on it. 9/2 into 3/1

Cheltenham Previews will be posted in the morning. :cool:

Apologies to all that followed there. Literally hit everything on the way around. It was backed before the off as if defeat was out of the question.

After a bad week

prettyboy81

Jaysus US Navy Seal had him in double with Peace & Co. ðŸ˜

longshotvalue

the 5/1 about Hargam without fav here looks great value to me... I'm not sure I fancy any of the others..

DyldeBrill

Good run from lily waugh, didn't think she was gonna do it but got there in the end

Francie Barrett

Minot Street given an eye catching change on scenery in the 8:15 and looks a decent price at 7/2. I am on at that price.

sdoc13

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Minot Street given an eye catching change on scenery in the 8:15 and looks a decent price at 7/2. I am on at that price.

I Just got word for this from a reasonable source.

Francie Barrett

7/2 still available for Free Eagle in the big race at Sha Tin tomorrow morning. I thought I was totally robbed when I backed this one on course at Leopardstown when it got taken out by Golden Horn. Horse then went to Longchamps where it got a horrific run but still managed to finish decently. Is Free Eagle better than Golden Horn? I'd say not, but only fractionally not. But I think on form this one is better than what it goes up against tomorrow morning.

Lt Dan

Any tips for the racing in Hong Hong?

Francie Barrett

Lt Dan wrote: »

Any tips for the racing in Hong Hong?

Hong Kong - what are you on about? :pac:

Lt Dan

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Hong Kong - what are you on about? :pac:

Hong Kong Vase (just won by Highland Reel) , Hong Kong Sprints (Sole Power Running) , Hong Kong Cup (Free Eagle & Military Attack), Hong Kong Mile are running right now.

Lt Dan

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Hong Kong - what are you on about? :pac:

Sorry, "Hong Kong"

Hong Kong Vase (just won by Highland Reel) , Hong Kong Sprints (Sole Power Running) , Hong Kong Cup (Free Eagle & Military Attack), Hong Kong Mile are running right now.