Friday 11/12/15

HarshOstrich

Cheltenham 1.10
Olofi @ 12/1
In much calmer waters than he's used to (down from class 1 races to class 3)
Loves the course and should put up a good show although the fav will be tough to beat.

Cheltenham 1.45
Sausalito sunrise @ 7/2

He won so well last time in an extremely competitive race, even tho he made a number of mistakes, it's hard to see 6 pound rise stopping him today as I taught he would improve from his last race.

Cheltenham 2.20
Any currency @ 5/2

Love these races but has just been run out of the winners spot a few times including last time but the weights really favour him today so he should turn the form with Josies orders and will run a big race with a clear round.

Copper_pipe

Cheltenham Preview:


12:00
This looks a top class staying novice chase. There really is not much between these rivals on form. Vicente who has two course wins to his name looks on the up. The form of that is questionable though. Blacklion fell when in contention and Un Temps pour Tout was disappointing. Vicente got through the heavy ground pretty well though and won nicely. He’s more of a future grand national type horse than a RSA or Gold Cup type. He has to give away between 3lb and 8lb in this race too though. He may be vulnerable to horses with a better turn of foot. Blacklion who fell in that race that Vicente won should be able to finish in front of him today with the weight pull. He has to improve his jumping though. He may also be a cut below a few horses in this too. The three main contenders in this race are Minella Rocco, OneNightInVienna and Fletchers Flyer.


Minella Rocco comes into the race after a very strange run on debut over fences. He was 2l behind todays rival Private Malone at Haydock last tine out.He went off odds on favourite but he never really showed up until after the final fence. He was given a very poor ride by Barry Geraghty and was only put into the race late on. The course and step up in trip today is sure to suit him. He should reverse placings with Private Malone too. His hurdle form was nothing special though compared to a few of the others in this. Even the form of his last run hasn’t exactly worked out. The winner Silsol was well beaten next time out. Barry Geraghty said in his blog that he may need good or good to soft to be seen at his best. He won’t get that today. He has a lot of potential but he has more to prove than others. I don’t think he’s a worthy favourite.


The one I like in here is Onenightinvienna who has gone from strength to strength. The form of his last 4 runs is very strong. He was only beaten a nose by Bally Beauford, that horse has won twice since. He then beat Kingswell Theatre by 31l. That horse has also won since. On his last run over hurdles last season he showed he does not back down from a fight. He beat the top novice hurdler Caracci Apache at Perth by a length. That form would give onenightinvienna a form edge over blacklion and vicente. First time up this season in a novice chase he beat todays rival Fletchers Flyer by a length and a quarter. He was the better horse that day, he wasn’t able to play his run until late on and he reeled in Fletchers Flyer and won a shade easily in the end. Both were having their first run of the season and both should improve. On a like through silsol onenightinvienna would also have the form advantage of Minella Rocco. That’s on paper, as we know it doesn’t always work out that way. He’s a nice each way price too at 5/1. Fletchers Flyer could be the one to chase him home again today.
Selection: Onenightinvienna 5/1
12:35
This is a very hard race to predict, there are 4 or 5 in this that could win. I’m just going to go into detail on the three runners I like in the race. Kilronan High was an easy winner on only her third chase start at Southwell 10 days ago and looks a big player under a penalty here today. The horse she beat by 11l had previously won 2 races on the trot. She looks the only horse in the race that’s unexposed and could go onto better things. She has to carry a penalty of 7lb here for her last win but she is due to go up another 5lb after this run. Ryan Hatch takes a further 3lb off today. So there’s a good chance that she is still ahead of the handicapper.


Her dangers could well be Hayjack and Rocking Blues. Hayjack had some really good bumper and hurdle form but his form over fences tailed off the last season or two. He had a nice return to action on his last run where he was 4th to King Massini. The horse that finished just in front of him has won since and a few of the horses that finished behind him has run well. Hayjack might not be as good as Kilronan High but he could run well at a nice price. Rocking Blues ran very well last time out on his first run back from a long layoff. He tried to make all that day and the lack of a run cost him late on. He may also need this run but is one to watch.
Selection: Kilronan High 5/1
Outsider: Hayjack 11/1

1:10
This race looks open on paper but I really think there are only 4 main players in this race. A Hare Breath landed a huge gamble at this track in November. That win came after a long spell on the sidelines. He has previously shown some decent form in novice hurdles. He won by 2 and a half lengths that day. It was a 0-125, this race is a 0-140 so it is a step up in class. I think people got carried away by his win the last day, it wasn’t a great race and he didn’t run away with it at the end. This being his 2nd run back from a layoff he may have an off day. He’ll have his chance but I certainly won’t be backing him at 9/4.


Some Buckle is having his first run today for Paul Nicholls. He was formerly with Tom George. He won a novice hurdle last season by 12l from today’s rival Mad Jack Myton and was also 2nd in a decent race behind Glingerburn who has won three races since. Some Buckle then ran in a top staying novice hurdle at this track, the form of that race is very strong and he ran with credit that day. After that his focus was turned to handicap hurdles. Wasn’t beaten far on handicap debut in the Imperial Cup. That was a good run and may be one of the best handicap form pieces in this race. He disappointed on his last run last season. He traveled well in his races last season but didn’t get home in most of them. The change of stable and the drop in trip could very well be the making of him. He has to give weight away to every runner today but he may well be a cut above these. I’d definitely rather back him each way at 9/1 than bet on A Hare Breath at 9/4. I think this is still a workable mark for Some Buckle and there should be more to come.


On old form Olofi would sure give these a run for their money. He loves this course and he won the greatwood hurdle here a few seasons ago. He’s slowly been coming down the weights and now rates 9lb below that win. He ran some real decent races last season in listed and graded races. He was only 10l behind grade 1 winners The New One and 4l behind Rock On Ruby. There’s nothing anywhere near that form in this race. He finished in front of Some Buckle at Aintree last season and he now carries 13lb less than he did that run. He also has a 4lb turnaround in the weights with Mad Jack Hatton and 6lb turnaround in the weights with Starluck. He is getting on now though and hasn’t shown his usual zest of late. I would not rule him out though. He will love the ground, course and he is running off the lowest mark of his career. He has proven tough to win with lately though. I get the suspicion that Some Buckle has more to come and this drop in trip could bring about a fair amount of improvement.

Selection: Some Buckle 9/1
Outsider: Olofi 14/1
1:45
This is the big race of the day and it is run over the Gold Cup trip of 3 mile 2f. Wonderful Charm is the best horse in the race based on his good runs in graded races but he has never won beyond 2 mile 5. He is also too high in the weights. The Druid’s Nephew won a big handicap at the big March festival here. He was going well in the Grand National until falling. He is 10lb higher than that win though and I get the suspicion that he would be better on good ground and they want to lower his mark.


We tipped up Sausalito Sunrise when he won here over 3 mile 3f at the November festival at this track. He was ridden patiently and won well in the end. He did have a hard race though. There was a horse that finished in behind that may have more to offer today. That horse is The Romford Pele. He was having his 2nd run back from a layoff and he was never really put in the race until 2 out. He made up a lot of ground and was only beaten 6l by Sausalito Sunrise. He ran into 7th. Clearly he has been kept for another day. He has a 7lb turnaround at the weights with the winner and he should be able to reverse the placings. Paul Townend comes over for the ride and he is a nice each way price.


The one I really like though is Vieux Lion Rouge who is going for a 4 timer today over fences. He completed the hat-trick when back up in trip and drawing 4l clear late on in pretty useful handicap at Haydock over 3m on soft ground three weeks ago. Up 7lb now but looks a rising force and he was not stopping the last day at the finish, if anything he was putting in his best work late on. He should have no problems with the trip or stiff track.
Selection: Vieux Lion Rouge 6/1
Outsider: The Romford Pele 14/1
2:20
This cross-country race is a cracking race and very exciting to watch. Course form is so vital in this race. There is no horse in the race with better course form than Any Currency who has been placed in his last 7 runs over this course. His last run here which came at the November meting was a superb run. That race was a handicap and this race is off level weights. That fact alone gives him a huge swing in the weights in his favour with most of these rivals. He was only beat a length and a half by todays rival Josies Orders that day. Any Currency gets a whopping 23lb swing in his favour today. He is also 22lb better off today with the horse than he finished just ahead of. He is also better off in the weights with Uncle Junior, Sire Collonges and Rivage Dor. Any Currency won this race last year and he is a better horse this year. I think he will take a lot of beating, he is one of the best bets of the day. He would prefer good ground but if it’s any way good and not heavy he should be just fine.


Josies Orders is on the up though and he may be still be a danger today. Enda Bolger’s horses have to be followed closely in these races. At the weights though he really shouldn’t beat Any Currency. Sire Collonges who fell in that race may be the danger to Any Currency today. He has some top form over this course too and he was going okay until he slipped up on the bend. It’s hard to tell where he would have finished but Any Currency is still 7lb better off with him today though. It’s hard to look past Any Currency to be honest. Uncle Junior has won this race twice in the past and has been placed he last two years. He is getting on in years now but he could place again.

The top rated horse in the field is On His Own. He’s been a great servant over the years. He was 2nd in the Gold Cup 2 seasons back and was 2nd in a grade 1 last Christmas. It looks that he is regressing and is not the same horse. He also has it to prove over this trip and course. If he did show anything near his graded form he would prove hard to beat but its a big if. I’d rather side with the proven Any Currency. There are a few interesting outsiders in this race. There isn’t much between 50/1 shots Ballyboker Bridge and First to Boogie on their last run over banks course at Punchestown. First to Boogie would have the slight edge at the weights but Ballyboker Bridge is the one I think will do best. He looked like winning the big cross-country race at the Punchestown festival over a trip further than this. He fell 2 out but he was going well. He has shown a liking for these fences and he should see out the trip which cant be said for most. He is punching below his weight in this but could sneak a place late on.
Selection: Any Currency 5/2
Outsider: Ballyboker Bridge 50/1
2:55
This race may prove to be the toughest race of the day to find the winner of. There are about 6 horses in this race with lots of great form and will all be tough to beat. I think the horses at the bottom of the weights may be the ones to follow. Oscarteea ran well in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham two seasons back. He has only had three starts over hurdles since though. He was off the track for 12 months and left Anthony Honeyball before he ran fourth of nine on handicap debut at Haydock over 2 mile 3f. His usual tongue-tie was removed that day. That was three weeks ago. He cut through the field late on passing beaten horses. He’s worth another step up in trip on that evidence and he is unexposed. He needs to improve to beat some of these but I wouldn’t put it past him.


One Track Mind brings the best form into the race. He won a bumper and two of his four novice hurdles, and was fourth of six in a Grade 1 at Newbury last December which is easily his best form. He needs to prove he’s worth this mark but well worth a go beyond 2m5f and the trainer had an impressive, well-backed winner with reappearing handicap debutante over 3m at Newbury two weeks ago, the money has come for him too.


Fingerontheswitch is the one I’m liking. The form of his point to point and novice hurdles pretty good. He ran a great race at the november meeting here. He ran 4th behind some decent horses. That was his first run in a handicap and there sure is plenty more to come from this horse. The winner of that race has since demolished a field recently. So the form is very strong. He also is unexposed and carries a very low weight. He may have preferred the ground to be nearer good than soft but he still has a great each way chance today.
Monbeg Gold looks on the up. He has won two ordinary races in a row. He may be too high in the weights after those wins but has his chance like most in this. I think this race will come down to One Track Mind and Fingerontheswitch. One Track Mind has shown the better form but Fingerontheswitch is getting a stone and 2 lbs from him today which could make all the difference.
Selection: Fingerontheswitch 6/1
Outsider: Oscarteea 14/1
3:25
This is good novice hurdle to finish out the card with. On form Drumlee Sunset is the one they all have to beat. He beat a horse called Fagan in a point and that horse has won 5 races since. Drumlee Sunset beat O O Seven in his first run under rules. That horse has won twice since for Nicky Henderson. Drumlee Sunset ran into a good horse when trying to win a maiden hurdle here back in October. The winner Mister Miyagi has also since won. So the form is very strong. Best to ignore his last run, as he got rid of his jockey at the start. Not sure what exactly happened that day but I wouldn’t put it down to a temperament issue. I do like Drumlee Sunset but he is proving costly to follow. There’s a horse in this race that has been talked up all autumn and winter long and that horse is the Nicky Henderson trained Baden.
Baden won a decent point to point in Ireland and was sold to this yard for 160,000. The horse that finished 4th that day was 2nd in a bumper last week. It’s hard to tell how good the form is or how good Baden is but the vibes are very good. Baden’s new owner recently said “Derek O’Connor, who rode the horse when he won, recommended him very highly. He came from a long way back in his point-to-point, but won in good style and has a bit of class about him. The second looks smart, too.”


His trainer Nicky Henderson had this to say about the horse when asked in a stable tour a month ago “He impressed a lot of people when winning his only point-to-point in the spring and is a gorgeous four-year-old. He is a very exciting prospect who is likely to start off in a bumper before running in novice hurdles.” He’s making his debut today in a novice, the fact that he did not run in a bumper goes to show that this horse has pleased its connections. Drumlee Sunset has the form in the book and will try to make all from the front but I think Baden might be special, the 4/1 about him could look very good after the race.
Selection: Baden 4/1

ipitydafool

Have to agree with Onenightinvienna, looks an out and out stayer and hopefully will relish the cheltenham hill. Has to give 5lbs to fletchers flyer but that's reflected in respective prices and definitely value at 5's. He has been nipped at in most books this morning, 4's in most places.

A Hare's Breath could still have loads in hand of handicapper despite the 12lb rise. Ben Pauling after his last win thought he was a graded horse and he getting smashed in betting again this morning, 6/4 in some places. Even though he only won by 2 odd lengths or so last time, his hurdling was very strong and they had to omit and go round the last hurdle which didn't help him.

On every form you read through and now level weights, Any Currency will be very hard to be beaten, there is now some good in the ground description which only going to help his chances.

Have had some Win bets on the above and Hare Breath/Any Currency double.

Peintre Celebre

Price gone but Times of Anatefka is still a fair price at 8/1 at Dundalk 12/1 in two places last night. This is a bad bad race even for the grade and I have this down as clear second fav and should be backed accordingly. Agree with posters above about Olofi and I backed him last night at 14/1

Francie Barrett

I think Shabra Emperor is the bet of the night in the 7:30. Winner off a mark of 71 about 6 months ago, today it goes off from 64. Did quite nicely last time out against horses rated a stone better, so if it repeats that form, it should go very well against the lesser opposition here. 12/1 a very decent e/w price.

BurtMacklin

Did a little ew double on Olofi and Times of Anatefka.

Luap

Backed Vieux Lion Rouge. Free bet on 365 on the next featured race if he comes in.

superfurry1

Anyone else piling up the second places? jebus must be in double digits for the week, Think Wonderful Charm will fly home :P

Super ride by Nina there.

Francie Barrett

Sam Twiston Davies ridden off the track by Nina there.

superfurry1

Any Thoughts on Vote of Confidence in the last at Dundalk? Thinking a small ew

Francie Barrett

Good bit of money for Our Max in the 7:00. Application of money is always something to be wary of with this trainer.

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think Shabra Emperor is the bet of the night in the 7:30. Winner off a mark of 71 about 6 months ago, today it goes off from 64. Did quite nicely last time out against horses rated a stone better, so if it repeats that form, it should go very well against the lesser opposition here. 12/1 a very decent e/w price.

Have followed you on this. He looks poised

kalinisi

Heavy Weight for me tonight to reverse form with Udogo, he was badly hampered last time out and they punted the fecking ears off him last time, also Ana up on Udog is a major negative for me.

Have done a small e/w patent with good auld national service Times of Anatefka...

shmeee

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think Shabra Emperor is the bet of the night in the 7:30. Winner off a mark of 71 about 6 months ago, today it goes off from 64. Did quite nicely last time out against horses rated a stone better, so if it repeats that form, it should go very well against the lesser opposition here. 12/1 a very decent e/w price.

Oh ****, taught we were a winner all over!

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think Shabra Emperor is the bet of the night in the 7:30. Winner off a mark of 71 about 6 months ago, today it goes off from 64. Did quite nicely last time out against horses rated a stone better, so if it repeats that form, it should go very well against the lesser opposition here. 12/1 a very decent e/w price.

Very unlucky.
EW landed at least Francie

Marcus-Aurelius

Shout francie!

shmeee

Was pulling a train turning in, was only a matter of time I taught.

Ahead 1 inch after the line but that's no good.

Great shout anyway, small profit, cheers!

On the reply I thought it was a DH....would have settled for it!!

Howjoe1

desperately unlucky good shout

BumperD

:mad:

Francie Barrett

BumperD wrote: »

:mad:

You said it all mate.

Peintre Celebre

That's a bit frustrating beaten under 1 1/2 lengths after losing about 8 at the start

shmeee

Heavy weight in the 9.00 @ 3/1

Was cleaned LTO, cash won't be left behind tonight

Francie Barrett

Just backed Spiceupyourlife at 125/1 in the last :pac:

BumperD

Followed the money ew on pincode

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

Heavy weight in the 9.00 @ 3/1

Was cleaned LTO, cash won't be left behind tonight

Every chance tonight, not good enough. Going off 9/4, heavily backed again

HarshOstrich

shmeee wrote: »

Every chance tonight, not good enough. Going off 9/4, heavily backed again

He was very keen in the race

the groutch

anyone else think The Romford Pele is being saved to get a nice weight in The National or one of the Cheltenham handicaps.
he's being held up well out the back the last few runs, and only put into the races when any chance of winning is gone.

madmoose

the groutch wrote: »

anyone else think The Romford Pele is being saved to get a nice weight in The National or one of the Cheltenham handicaps.
he's being held up well out the back the last few runs, and only put into the races when any chance of winning is gone.

Yes i thought the kim muir at the festival perhaps?

kksaints

the groutch wrote: »

anyone else think The Romford Pele is being saved to get a nice weight in The National or one of the Cheltenham handicaps.
he's being held up well out the back the last few runs, and only put into the races when any chance of winning is gone.

Possibly although he was struggling from a bit too far out before coming down for my liking today. Was very impressed with the ride that Aachen got in the same race. Jockey got the pace absolutely spot on.