S'Indo / Millward Brown - 8 Nov 2015

Jawgap

Bit of good news for FG......


https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/663098685186662404


https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/663100137690939392

Iwasfrozen

SF on 21%? Hmm, I'm going to go with a pinch of salt on that one, last Red C poll put them at ~16% which is more realistic.

BoJack Horseman

Well, looking at previous Milward Brown's, this poll is the same as what they got in June.

It dropped 5pts in July oddly & has rebounded to where they were 5 months ago.

So, in 5 months they haven't moved an inch.

And looking at the big picture....
The incumbent government is at 36%
The alternative government of FF/SF is way ahead at 45%

Despite doing a good job, the people are hankering for some Berti/Shinner-nomics.

BoJack Horseman

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

SF on 21%? Hmm, I'm going to go with a pinch of salt on that one, last Red C poll put them at ~16% which is more realistic.

21% is starting to look solid for the Shinners.

Every poll for the past 6 months has SF between 18% to 23%.

They aren't weakening.

Jawgap

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

SF on 21%? Hmm, I'm going to go with a pinch of salt on that one, last Red C poll put them at ~16% which is more realistic.

Interesting that the SBP, a paper with a more republican outlook, scores SF lower than the oft-complained-about S'Indo.

they're now in a solid third place.

Sierra Oscar

It's interesting to note that FG are gaining out of the economic recovery but Labour are flat on their arses. Although the last Millward Brown poll definetly underestimated FG support in the first place.

Encouraging for FF too - I'd say the party will poll 25% + on election day, returning around 40'ish TD's.

Iwasfrozen

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

21% is starting to look solid for the Shinners.

Every poll for the past 6 months has SF between 18% to 23%.

They aren't weakening.

People would hae said the same about FF who had built up their core over generations, SF are a new party so by definition they don't have that kind of core.

Manach

It should be interesting to see if this will be a precursor of a trend or else as the election looms will people's memories of the previous mistakes of FF come to the fore or the missteps of extra taxes, Irish Water and the Justice furore cause the coalition to stumble.

BoJack Horseman

Manach wrote: »

It should be interesting to see if this will be a precursor of a trend or else as the election looms will people's memories of the previous mistakes of FF come to the fore or the missteps of extra taxes, Irish Water and the Justice furore cause the coalition to stumble.

I'm not sure the people know what they want.

They seem to want an end to austerity, but the opposition are the ones promising tax rises.

Either way, we are 6 months from an election & the alternative coalition are 9% ahead.

If Kenny wants to be Taoiseach again, he'll have to get the lead out.

newacc2015

Manach wrote: »

It should be interesting to see if this will be a precursor of a trend or else as the election looms will people's memories of the previous mistakes of FF come to the fore or the missteps of extra taxes, Irish Water and the Justice furore cause the coalition to stumble.

If Labour keep up their petty BS objective to win some votes and alienate half the nation ie Rent control. We could see gains for FG. There has been very little on Irish water in the last month. All the media focused on was rent controls. It could be the refugees next month.

If there is very little for the opposition to attack in the media. I could see FG do very well in the elections. I think Irish Water is like the Hilary email scandal. There is only so much attacking of Hilary and reruns of the story before its old news. I think Irish water is pretty much old news.

Alan_P

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's interesting to note that FG are gaining out of the economic recovery but Labour are flat on their arses. Although the last Millward Brown poll definetly underestimated FG support in the first place.

Encouraging for FF too - I'd say the party will poll 25% + on election day, returning around 40'ish TD's.

I'd say this is essentially a rogue poll for FF and they'll secure somewhere around 16-18% on election day, pretty much the same as they got last time. The range of polls since the last election has them pretty firmly in that range.

The outgoing government is on 36%, 4-5 months out from an election. If you'd offered Enda Kenny that when he took office, he'd have taken it, given the catastrophe FF had,yet again, inflicted on the country and the measures he knew would be needed ,yet again, to salvage the state from FF incompetence.

Somewhere around 42-45% would secure the current government in power, the 2 parties need to add some combination of 6-9% between them. That's eminently achievable.

Sierra Oscar

Alan_P wrote: »

I'd say this is essentially a rogue poll for FF and they'll secure somewhere around 16-18% on election day, pretty much the same as they got last time. The range of polls since the last election has them pretty firmly in that range.

FF will poll 25% on election day if not higher, similar to the figure they got in the local elections (when certain polls were putting them at 17% below SF).

The problem for FF is that the 'national brand' is weak at the moment, but candidates on the ground are doing better than the polling figures suggest.

WheatenBriar

So which FG td's are going to lose their seats?
Where are FF going to pick up seats in Dublin?

Sierra Oscar

WheatenBriar wrote: »

So which FG td's are going to lose their seats?
Where are FF going to pick up seats in Dublin?

Dublin Fingal (O'Brien), Dublin Bay North (Haughey), Dublin Mid West (Curran), Dublin - West (Chambers), Dublin South West (Curran) and possibly Dún Laoghaire (Hanafin).

I also predict some gains in the Greater Dublin Area. FF should take a seat in Meath East comfortably (Byrne). One of the candidates in Kildare North will be returned too. They are also in a reasonable position to take a seat in Louth, Meath West and Wicklow.

FF will be returning a TD in nearly all constituencies bar the Dublin city ones. I wouldn't rule out two TD's being returned in certain areas.

WheatenBriar

I'd be shocked if Hanafin got a seat in Dun Laoghaire,theres only 3 with fierce competition
I dont see a seat in Wicklow for them either, the 2FG will be returned,Timmins is too popular as is Donnelly so theres a cat fight between labour and SF for the last and I reckon SF will have it

the groutch

FF won't win a seat in Dun Laoghaire imo.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor will probably get in on the first count.
Richard Boyd Barrett will get in with strong transfers from independents and Sinn Fein.
Carrie Smith (Lab) will get in with a lot of Gilmore's old voters, and a boost from MMOC's surplus.

Hanafin & Devlin will split the FF vote, and won't transfer between each other as much as hoped.

Agent Smith

the groutch wrote: »

FF won't win a seat in Dun Laoghaire imo.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor will probably get in on the first count.
Richard Boyd Barrett will get in with strong transfers from independents and Sinn Fein.
Carrie Smith (Lab) will get in with a lot of Gilmore's old voters, and a boost from MMOC's surplus.

Hanafin & Devlin will split the FF vote, and won't transfer between each other as much as hoped.

It'll be
1FG
2PBP/AAA
3 Would have been FF if they only ran one, Now honnestly dont know.

Godge

Agent Smith wrote: »

It'll be
1FG
2PBP/AAA
3 Would have been FF if they only ran one, Now honnestly dont know.

Adrian Kavanagh is calling it for FF.

However, you are right, that the two candidate strategy could let Labour or FG back in.

Unlikely that there is enough votes for RBB and SF to both get seats in a three-seater in the richest constituency in the country.

There is the small but unlikely possibility that a strong showing by SF would take votes off RBB and not transfer back leaving him short. Remember RBB only got 10.9% first preferences in the last election and you need 25% in a three-seater. He got 2,500 votes from the elimination of Ivana Bacik and they won't be there for him this time around. He will need to both stay ahead of SF and hope that they transfer strongly to him.

Banjo String

newacc2015 wrote: »

If Labour keep up their petty BS objective to win some votes and alienate half the nation ie Rent control. We could see gains for FG. There has been very little on Irish water in the last month. All the media focused on was rent controls. It could be the refugees next month.

If there is very little for the opposition to attack in the media. I could see FG do very well in the elections. I think Irish Water is like the Hilary email scandal. There is only so much attacking of Hilary and reruns of the story before its old news. I think Irish water is pretty much old news.

Irish water brought to the fore again with Tierney being lobbed under the bus deciding to step down.

Conveniently, this coincides with the company (apparently) rebranding itself to make itself more appealing, and in turn encourage more people to pay.

That's a great idea lads, persuade the people who think you're but a white elephant, hemorrhaging cash that belongs to the tax payer and give yourselves a makeover with a change of name and logo..... The people will surely forget all that went before......

Oh, and there's the small matter of the siteserv deal that has raised its ugly mug again, seems we won't be getting the gorey details on Denis OBriens acquisition of Millington at a massive write downs and at a favorable interest rate until after the election. Then his subsequent rather lucrative state contract installing meters for Irish water (Moriarty anyone)

Despite being promised otherwise.


I hope the opposition don't let either die down from the limelight.

IrishProd

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Encouraging for FF too - I'd say the party will poll 25% + on election day, returning around 40'ish TD's.

Look...we understand that you are a resident FFer poster, but you are completely deluded if you think FF will get that many TDs.

"male, stale, beyond the pale"

BoJack Horseman

IrishProd wrote: »

but you are completely deluded if you think FF will get that many TDs.

Yeah, they would need every close race to break their way to reach 40.

We've no idea what they are hoping for in FF towers, but they are currently on 21 seats.
I imagine that 30 seats will be their minimum target.

Christ knows why of course, as they offer less than nothing.... but the ebb & flow of things means they will rise somewhat.

Shurimgreat

At the end of the day, people care about what's in their own pocket.

If they didn't baulk at Bertie's irregular financial situation in 2007, or Haughey's poor reputation in previous times, they are not going to be too bothered by a minor scandal or two with the current government, so long as the economy is going well, employment is rising and so on.

If the economy continues to recover, the government should do well at the next election, maybe even be returned in the current format but with a reduced majority.

Our elections closely mirror the UKs. The british public didn't really trust Labour. And when push comes to shove on election day, most people trust Fine Gael on the economy.

Jawgap

Shurimgreat wrote: »

At the end of the day, people care about what's in their own pocket.

If they didn't baulk at Bertie's irregular financial situation in 2007, or Haughey's poor reputation in previous times, they are not going to be too bothered by a minor scandal or two with the current government, so long as the economy is going well, employment is rising and so on.

If the economy continues to recover, the government should do well at the next election, maybe even be returned in the current format but with a reduced majority.

Our elections closely mirror the UKs. The british public didn't really trust Labour. And when push comes to shove on election day, most people trust Fine Gael on the economy.

Indeed.

I think the only thing that will derail FG in the run up to the GE is a really bad winter in the hospitals.

other than that I'd expect that they'll follow the Tories and their election strategy of "don't risk it with the other crowd."

I also think Labour are going to get clobbered but not to the degree the polls suggest because they'll pick up transfers from all over.

nice_guy80

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Dublin Fingal (O'Brien), Dublin Bay North (Haughey), Dublin Mid West (Curran), Dublin - West (Chambers), Dublin South West (Curran) and possibly Dún Laoghaire (Hanafin).

I also predict some gains in the Greater Dublin Area. FF should take a seat in Meath East comfortably (Byrne). One of the candidates in Kildare North will be returned too. They are also in a reasonable position to take a seat in Louth, Meath West and Wicklow.

FF will be returning a TD in nearly all constituencies bar the Dublin city ones. I wouldn't rule out two TD's being returned in certain areas.

there probably won't be a FF or FG TD elected in Roscommon/Galway

Jawgap

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/664713379194478592

golfball37

FF will get at least 40 seats and they deserve it based on the performance of the current government.

BoJack Horseman

golfball37 wrote: »

FF will get at least 40 seats and they deserve it based on the performance of the current government.

Flesh this out empirically.

FF left FG with a €12,000,000,000 hole in the running of the state.
4 years later FG turned this into a surplus.

So, as I said, with as much data as you can.....what was it about the Cowan administration (or the Michael Martin tenure) that deserves so many seats?

golfball37

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Flesh this out empirically.

FF left FG with a €12,000,000,000 hole in the running of the state.
4 years later FG turned this into a surplus.

So, as I said, with as much data as you can.....what was it about the Cowan administration (or the Michael Martin tenure) that deserves so many seats?

For some voters economic considerations are to the forefront for others they are not. I admire the job the current govt have done economically but their economy with the truth in terms of the real reform this country needs is why I'll not vote for them.
They promised to clean up politics and acted worse than FF in the process, in this regard.

BoJack Horseman

golfball37 wrote: »

in terms of the real reform this country needs is why I'll not vote for them.

It's a question I've asked before & no one ever answers.

What is it about the FF reform plan do you think is both; A) superior to that of FG & amenable to the kingpins in Liberty Hall?

golfball37

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It's a question I've asked before & no one ever answers.

What is it about the FF reform plan do you think is both; A) superior to that of FG & amenable to the kingpins in Liberty Hall?

Liberty Hall is again linking reform to money. Economic policy is only one strand, they have no interest in cleaning up politics which is my bug bear
I wish they could have done their business without handing out contracts to friends and throwing Shorthall under the bus for highlighting something they promised not to do.

BoJack Horseman

golfball37 wrote: »

Liberty Hall is again linking reform to money. Economic policy is only one strand, they have no interest in cleaning up politics which is my bug bear

That didn't answer anything though.

It's pretty simple.... If you have a grá for FF there must be something about their policy platform you prefer to the incumbents.

I'm just asking what part of FF's PS reform & political reform plan do you find superior (remembering they spent the previous 3 terms reforming nothing).