Weather warning plus ....

my3cents

I'm sure we have all heard the weather warnings for today (26/11/2015) which on their own aren't that bad. I haven't on the other hand heard anyone mention in the media that we have some of the highest tides in the year tomorrow.

The combination of the two can lead to a high tide that isn't normally a problem preventing drainage and holding back rivers so increasing the chances of flooding in low lying areas.

ShadowFox

Over the last week I've seen weather forecasts saying it's going to be the coldest winter in 100years with 36 days of snow and 4 months of sub zero temperature and others saying it's going to be mild and we won't be due bad weather for 10.years

So I've come to the conclusion if I want to know what the weather is like I'll look out the window and guess

my3cents

I always "sing","The weather will remain the same or change from what it is":o

What I was thinking when I posted originally was that we can take most of the weather that is thrown at us but its often something extra that turns bad weather into disastrous weather. High tides, swollen/blocked rivers, blocked drains can do every thing from create floods to add a sheet of ice to a main road where there ice has never been a problem before.

ShadowFox

A guy on Facebook from wexford I think it's Ricks weather seems to be very good gives a couple of days notice

ch750536

We have become very good at forecasting the next 5 days, accuracy for 5 daus out is always around 80% which is very good. Accuracy falls dramatically after that, to 30% over 14 days.

Climatologists (not forecasters) like to generalise about the future up to 3 months ahead, with poor accuracy though. Ken Ring is notorious for changing forecasts to match events or delivering forecasts that contain every possible permutation. Cat palmistry is his day job.

For survivalism, knowing just how bad it will - where & when is more important. Estofex is very good for this.

my3cents

Sat here now wondering just how high the river will flood? That "plus" factor that means the difference between excessive moisture and a wash out is with us this time. Low tide is around 6pm so not holding the river back. It could get worse but signs are we should be OK. Hopefully thats are one in five year event over for a few years but might hire a digger in to improve the flow down the river and add a shallow channel parallel to it in our riverside field.

my3cents

Looking OK now, worst of the rain has past over us and the river has already dropped by 6 inches. What a difference an hour makes.

aaakev

How much higher than the river are you? Id say it was hairy there for a while!

my3cents

The river rose about 5 feet and broke its banks so the garden was flooded, another foot and the bathroom would have been a wet room.

But it just depends where the water is coming from. I've improved the flow away from the house so we seem to flood less often but the river can break its bank further upstream and in that case we get water coming in the front door. I've some defenses against the river coming at us across the fields but fortunately I've yet to test them. Then there is the problem that the flow of water once a river has broken its banks is less efficient. Meaning the slow moving water in the field can back up quickly if something like a log blocks the deeper areas. Its not a straight forward black and white problem.

I wasn't too worried about todays rain as I could see from following the rainfall radar that it was going to end, we flood when the rain goes on for 24-48hours and we didn't get that this time. My wife was still running around outside putting away stuff that might float off and cursing me for saying just wait a little longer I think its going to get better soon.

I spent a little time today in the flooded field looking at exactly how the water runs and think I can improve things if move one big boulder in the river that impedes the flow, removing it might give me another half an inch of free board and that sounds a little but can make a big difference. I could see the main areas where the river breaks out. Building them up just a little may allow the river to flow faster. I also want a neighbor who is due to have a major garden overhaul to make some minor changes to their bank opposite me. Every little change in the right direction can reduce the chance of a bad outcome.

Some friends got flooded out today when a drainage ditch around their garden overflowed. I've no real sympathy as some timely work would have prevented it and they know that as this is the second time its happened. An overflow ditch down one side of the garden would sort it even if they don't bother keeping the culvert under their drive clear. If you live high up on a slope there is no excuse for water coming in. I feel low down in a valley at sea level I have some small excuse.