Foundation.

tryfix

The Derby favourite Foundation is due to run ( or not ) tomorrow in the Racing Post Trophy which if he wins will make him an even shorter price favourite for the Derby and the big talking horse for the Classics next year.

Although John Gosden can walk on water I don't think this very promising young horse has the stamina to win the Derby.

He's got a Dosage Index of 2.60 and more importantly he's got no middle distance stamina in his pedigree. His Sire Zoffany DI 3.00 was a quality miler who won a 6f GP1 as a 2yo and never ran over further than a mile. Zoffany by Dansili has made a brilliant start to his career as a sire, but is 0 from 3 with runners in GP1 races so far.

Fondation's Dam Roystonea DI 2.56 by the Miler ( Polish Precedent DI 2.54 ) was a 7-8f runner who has produced 7 foals including Foundation.

Take a chance DI 2.20 by ( Hawk Wing DI 2.00 ) who ran at up to a mile at 3 and then stepped up in trip as a 4yo to place at 12f in a minor race in France.

Vastonea DI 2.64 by ( Verglas DI 4.50 ) who ran at up to 12f but whose wins came when dropped back to 8f which seemed to suit him better.

Vergrigio a full brother brother to Vastonea who ran at 9f as a 2yo and from 8-12f as a 3yo in lower class company.

Xaloc DI 1.26 by ( Shirroco DI 0.54 ) who ran once at 7f as a 2yo on the All Weather.

Misterioso D1 2.25 by ( Ifraaj DI 2.20 ) a decent 3yo now who's a 7-8f horse.

There's not much encouragement there to think that Foundation as a 3yo will have the stamina for the stamina test that is the Derby. I reckon the bookies have been hyping this fellow for the Derby in the knowledge that he ain't bred for the job.

diomed

He might be the most fantastic horse ever, but I'm thinking like you. I also looked up his siblings and was not impressed with their ability to stay a trip.

What has Foundation beat? He has beaten 14 horses in 3 races. His reputation rests on the 111 before his name and that he beat Deauville last time out, a horse coming back after a 65 day break.
There is rain forecast, and that imo will not help him.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

He might be the most fantastic horse ever, but I'm thinking like you. I also looked up his siblings and was not impressed with their ability to stay a trip.

What has Foundation beat? He has beaten 14 horses in 3 races. His reputation rests on the 111 before his name and that he beat Deauville last time out, a horse coming back after a 65 day break.
There is rain forecast, and that imo will not help him.

The thing is, John Gosden had the Derby as his target before he won the Royal Lodge.

Maybe it's because Shaala is the speed horse in the stable that they were thinking of the Derby with this fella. Shaala is supposed to be avoiding the 2,000 Guineas and I can't think of any other 2,000 Guineas horse for next year that John has that'd compare to this horse.

It's still hard to doubt Gosden knowing the horses trip. I just wouldn't want to be backing him for it with that pedigree.

It's a fairly decent race tomorrow. Don't know what to make of O'Brien's horses. Port Douglas has a real stayers pedigree and the other 2 looked like they weren't at their best last time. Despite running well enough they looked like they could step up again and the supporting cast look like promising types.

If he can blow them all away tomorrow he's some beast.

Harry Angstrom

Best horse in the race today. Was desperately unlucky with the way the race panned out. I don't have much doubt he'll get 10 furlongs next year. Definitely worth persevering with for the Derby despite his pedigree.

tryfix

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Best horse in the race today. Was desperately unlucky with the way the race panned out. I don't have much doubt he'll get 10 furlongs next year. Definitely worth persevering with for the Derby despite his pedigree.

Was he the best on the day?

I don't think he actually was, he's a move horse with a burst of speed that he doesn't sustain for very long. He was side by side with the winner for a long way when the winner made his own burst to the front it was as impressive coming at the stage in the race that it did than Foundation's quickening past a beaten Deauville at a time when the horses that had used themselves would have been coming back to the Conservatively ridden Foundation.

I thought Foundation looked a bit lean today, like he needed to fill out a bit. He moves very well and could be a better as a 3yo. Definitely think the winner was the best horse on the day. He's very like his sire Lawman who's by Invincible Spirit a producer of soft ground performers. The winner would make a nice French Derby prospect.

Johner

tryfix wrote: »

Was he the best on the day?

I don't think he actually was, he's a move horse with a burst of speed that he doesn't sustain for very long. He was side by side with the winner for a long way when the winner made his own burst to the front it was as impressive coming at the stage in the race that it did than Foundation's quickening past a beaten Deauville at a time when the horses that had used themselves would have been coming back to the Conservatively ridden Foundation.

I thought Foundation looked a bit lean today, like he needed to fill out a bit. He moves very well and could be a better as a 3yo. Definitely think the winner was the best horse on the day. He's very like his sire Lawman who's by Invincible Spirit a producer of soft ground performers. The winner would make a nice French Derby prospect.

The winner was impressive but at no point did Foundation get a chance to show his class today. Frankie had a nightmare and even when Foundation did get in the clear at the end he didn't bother asking the horse to quicken as the front two were clear. There is no point in using today to knock Foundation or accessing him. I wouldn't back him for the Derby but I'd back him to win Group 1 races over shorter. I thought it was an awful ride by Frankie, the gap wasn't going to appear so he should have switched the horse around the whole field, very disappointed at how the race panned out though.

Itziger

I'm not sure Frankie could have done much there tbh. Sometimes a horse gets trapped and you just have to sit and hope. He'd have had to stop to pull him around the horses besides him - not an option!!

Wouldn't be putting too much on Foundation for 12 furlongs though.

Were Ballydoyle chuffed to get him beat or what? Big smile on Aidan's face as he congratulated Chapple Hyam and he on the mobile already to 'the lads'.

gymman39

Foundation will win the derby..you can put your house on it lol

klairondavis

Itziger wrote: »

Were Ballydoyle chuffed to get him beat or what? Big smile on Aidan's face as he congratulated Chapple Hyam and he on the mobile already to 'the lads'.

I would have thought Coolmore would be happy if Zoffany had produced a 2yo G1 winner.

Joe_ Public

Itziger wrote: »

I'm not sure Frankie could have done much there tbh. Sometimes a horse gets trapped and you just have to sit and hope. He'd have had to stop to pull him around the horses besides him - not an option!!

Wouldn't be putting too much on Foundation for 12 furlongs though.

Were Ballydoyle chuffed to get him beat or what? Big smile on Aidan's face as he congratulated Chapple Hyam and he on the mobile already to 'the lads'.

It's arguable but personally thought he should have been angling wide much earlier, before the 2f pole, but he'd committed very early to the inside and so that was it. Learned nothing about him really, but believe he would have won well enough with a clear run.

diomed

I was so confident of Foundation I place-laid him to be in the first three. :mad:

robbiezero

Did Frankie just completely over-estimate Deauville.
He tracked him all the way and maybe presumed that when Deauville pushed on to win the race, it would open up the gap for him to follow through and do Deauville with this speed, but Deauville performed poorly and Frankie realised too late Deauville was going nowhere

diomed

The race was built around Foundation and Deauville. Will Deauville turn the tables, or will Foundation prove he is the superstar?

The big "review" in the Racing Post Weekender "Foundation looks a Racing cert to hack up in the Post Trophy"
... "exciting youngster"
... "impressive maiden win"
... "followed up with a stylish success"
... "forging clear"
... "plenty up his sleeve"
... "took the increased competition in his stride".

Laughable fast-free "journalism".

Buddy97mm

Not sure how good Foundation is or might be but cannot agree that Frankie was not at fault. In my view, it's a jockey's job to get horse in best position to win and he never managed to do that. He held up the horse behind horses, and when no gap came, he simply accepted it - not good enough in my opinion and I would be fuming had I backed the horse. Yes horses will get boxed in and encounter trouble in running, but I don't believe Foundation was unlucky yesterday, he just got a very poor ride, Frankie made no real effort to get him out of the position he got the horse into and just waited for a gap to appear, which it didn't.

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

I'm not sure Frankie could have done much there tbh. Sometimes a horse gets trapped and you just have to sit and hope. He'd have had to stop to pull him around the horses besides him - not an option!!

Wouldn't be putting too much on Foundation for 12 furlongs though.

Were Ballydoyle chuffed to get him beat or what? Big smile on Aidan's face as he congratulated Chapple Hyam and he on the mobile already to 'the lads'.

Coolmore would have been happy to have seen Zoffany's rep as a Stallion raised, O'Brien smile said to me that they were very happy to see Johannes Vermeer run a good race.

The question is why O'Brien was so happy to see that as the horse didn't look like a world beater with his second place.

Either Johannes ( well fancied in France's top GP1 for 2yo's before finishing 2nd in another one yesterday ) is going to be a hell of a 3yo or they've got one or more at home lined up for the Derby that'd leave Johannes and the rest of the RPT field well behind them in a race.

There have been a serious amount of nicely bred horses performing well in maidens at the back end of the year. The 2016 Derby winner is probably flying under the radar as it were.

Thought Highland Reel's brother Idaho looked promising winning on his debut, but there are a ton of similar types around as well.

Harry Angstrom

Buddy97mm wrote: »

Not sure how good Foundation is or might be but cannot agree that Frankie was not at fault. In my view, it's a jockey's job to get horse in best position to win and he never managed to do that. He held up the horse behind horses, and when no gap came, he simply accepted it - not good enough in my opinion and I would be fuming had I backed the horse. Yes horses will get boxed in and encounter trouble in running, but I don't believe Foundation was unlucky yesterday, he just got a very poor ride, Frankie made no real effort to get him out of the position he got the horse into and just waited for a gap to appear, which it didn't.

I don't know what you could have expected Frankie to do. He made the reasonable decision beforehand to track what looked his biggest danger, Deauville. He obviously didn't expect him to start back-pedalling as soon as he did, and Frankie got stuck in a pocket. Short of having a helicopter to winch him out of that pocket, there was very little he could do but sit and suffer. There isn't a jockey riding who hasn't misjudged a race. The best ones do it only very infrequently. I can't remember the last time Frankie misjudged a race or gave a horse a poor ride before yesterday. Contrast that with the likes of Spencer and Hughes. Too many people talking through their pockets on this one.

HarshOstrich

Before the race john gosden said he wouldn't be given a hard race, and that's what looked like happening to me, even if frankie went wide he was never goin to catch the winner, he may have got close but once the winner had flown frankie accepted it and gave the horse an easy race

iamironman87

Frankie Frankie, the punter's pal!!