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Novelty/Special/TV Bet: The Great Bake Off

  • 07-10-2015 1:18pm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    (The baking cakes TV show on the Beeb). This show is yet another mystery to me, as to why so many folks watch it (we're taking millions). On par with all those boring period dramas, extreme fishing, thechangingrooms and such like drivel.

    Give me the Rubberbandits new show (initial-endamol) on ITV2 instead, those plastic bag apparel fans, clearly have the faces for voice-over commentary and script writing.

    ...Anyway apparently (as reported in yesterday's press), the winner of this one has been heavily wagered by the crew from the 'various associated production companies'. High frequency/footfall for max bets within specific catchment areas and within specific time-frames

    So much so that only WillyHill is still has a book open on it at x1.4 (Nadiya). Worth mentioning this was filmed a week ago, so the event has already happened.

    Very small risk of a 'sponsored false positive' (to welcome new sign-ups) in play, but the press reports offer some provenance to underhand investments an event that has already happened last week. (like betting on last weeks weather).

    On it like a car bonnet, W'Hilly can afford to loose a few quid perhaps...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    (Nadiya) just dropped on 'Hills from x1.4 to @1.28 within last 15mins.
    Generally 50max online, so a 'multi-shop-stop' the best option
    - if it ever gets back to around x1.5 mark.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,606 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987

    I thought it was Ladbrokes that were still taking bets on it?
    Max Stake according to their website was 20 so in effect they are giving their customers a "Free" 10 at odds of 1/2 on the fav, assuming the fav wins it.
    Some bookies continue to give odds on events that have already finished, I would assume it's considered cheap publicity for them if they make the max stake very small and get a lot of people talking about it.
    Sky News on Monday night had a big thing about the BBC staff who were having bets on it.
    They mentioned Ladbrokes at least 5 times and that was every hour when they showed in the papers.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    Ladbrookes were the ones throwing their cake on the floor, after suspicious activity.
    They're only loosing a measly 10k due to caps on maxstakes per bet.

    Certainly some fish(y) cakes going on, though a couple more books have opened markets (BF'Sports & Betway)
    all be it with slim pickings x1.28 & x1.2. Low hanging fruit.

    Hills now at x1.3 :
    Either it's a false positive play strawberry surprise (unlikely) or it's 'free money McMuffins'.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    Nadiya, is the winner winner chicken dinner of this bake-a-cake show, apparently.

    Price drifted slightly to 1.44/1.5 (BF'Sports) just couple of hours ago.
    Hills allowed up to 50 notes @x1.44, can't complain it's still free money.
    The production company hired by the beeb may be getting a bit of waving finger.

    Next on the agenda for Novelty/TV is the Apprentice (S11).
    Seen the previews and already 50% of them appear highly unsuitable,
    elimination markets look like good options.

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,606 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987

    On tonight's show, which was pre-recorded in June,

    4 months on and bookies were still taking bets on it!

    Next on the agenda for Novelty/TV is the Apprentice (S11).
    Seen the previews and already 50% of them appear highly unsuitable,
    elimination markets look like good options.

    Another pre-recorded show.
    Surely nobody will be taking bets on this?

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    Indeed long duration (up to 1yr apparently) between filming and broadcast for the long running Apprentice.
    Talkback/Mark Burnett likely have much better credentials for adhering to non-disclosure agreements.
    S11 (x12E) of the light entertainment comedy show premiers on 14th October 2015.

    Likely to be some markets opening on this all the same.
    There's at least 12 (of the 18) with egos that's won't match up with Lordy Shergar's demeanor.

    Will post early prediction on separate post...

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson

    This post has been deleted.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Hassan Flabby Sloth

    What's to stop show insiders from dropping a grand on the winner on the sly?

    Nothing really, think 'Love Productions' was commissioned via the BBC for parts of the filming or production (as reported in the DailyMail). Which mentioned high frequency bets in a certain geographical region, Ipswich/Norwich or somewhere.

    To drop 1k, would involve visiting 17 shops along with the 3 online books, as most all had max bets of 50notes (or 20 in certain cases). I only managed a few taps of 50 notes each.

    Recently though after the ladbrokes complaint, the beeb hit back saying they were the irresponsible ones - offering a market on an event that happened last year. Fair point.

    Next on the Novelty/TV is the Apprentice, no leaks so far as to who won.

    Other 'Award Novelties' e.g. the Booker Prize (just gone) and the upcoming Mercury Prize are much more difficult as the judges historically prefer dark horses.