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Novelty Market Bet (Business/Special) VW to cease trading < end 2016

  • 02-10-2015 9:50pm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Cohen Vast Swamp

    x21 for Volkswagen to close ('cease trading' as the 'vw brand') within 14 mths looks like a value bet. Currently available only via Betway, not appearing on odds checker search queries as yet.

    Spotted this in the press today and agree with the contributor it looks a good bet offer worth consideration.

    Most likely it will face a rebrand of some sort, split-up and redistribution of assets into one or more other holding groups.

    On the plus side if it does collapse the VW badges that the BeastieBoys were fans of wearing upon their necks will become collectors items, so hold on to yours. Also if you insist on one, current market prices are already down slightly so a great time to buy new or used.

    I'm slightly biased, as find all their most popular vehicles very, very, very boring.
    boxy Golfs and generic Passats - reliable but bland Diesel workhorses. Even Porsches look very dated these days.

    Plenty of contextual factors to consider e.g.

    1.) Their biggest market (China) is smogged up enough without further concerns on incorrect emissions data.
    2). VOW3 dropped 4.14% in the last 24hrs
    3). VOW3 dropped about 50% across 1 month.
    4). Other market zones may want mass private class action claims and compensation for incorrect data on emissions. e.g. If you buy a 700w microwave oven and it's using +/- 100 watts than this, aren't you protected under consumer & advertising laws for a refund or settlement?
    5). Governments pushing a green agenda will be pressured to appear active on this matter. Then again questionable mpg values across (all) car brands hasn't shaken many feathers as yet.

    Caution would be required whether or not a rebrand, split, merger or Phoenix type approach is classified as 'ceased trading'. Much will also depend on what real world emissions levels actually are as a % of already stated data.

    Not too dissimilar to what Malaysian Airlines went through, a damage limitation exercise that will depend on further data and of course market confidence.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,574 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987

    VW is one of the biggest car companies in the world, Id' say there's no chance of it changing it's name.
    Resignations. fines & recalls will be the end of it I'd say.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Cohen Vast Swamp

    Interesting article in the I'Times also. '7 reasons Volkswagen is worse than Enron' (by Dean at Yale School of Mamagement / via F'Times).

    Another article recommends Irish drivers keep their fuel receipts. “The cars were fraudulently misrepresented to customers. They do not comply with the description by which they were sold. Many of the car owners who have contacted us bought these vehicles because of the lower tax bracket associated with the lower emissions. If this recall and rectification impacts the cars’ emissions, it may impact on what Irish drivers pay in motor tax.” 79,348 Irish cars feature the software designed to cheat emissions tests

    Elsewhere a $86 billion cost figure estimate is exponentially more than previous cost estimates. If (Credit Suisse) is right, the $7.3 billion in funds VW set aside to cover costs relating to the crisis will be woefully inadequate.

    If a certain couple of books open up this market (to be combined with other safe selections as part of an accumulator), could be a great offer, a long wait though however.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Cohen Vast Swamp

    Papers re-filed today in the USA against VW by the Justice Department on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency. Estimates could run well above $20 billion, according to the suit.

    Betway has dropped the availability of this (initially x21) market a while ago.

    VOV3: -5.50% (today), -33% (1YR)

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,574 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987

    Obviously don't matter to Irish people, number 1 selling car in Ireland is still Volkswagen!
    Selling over 15k units might help their cause.