Catalunyan Seperatists win election

Lovely Bloke

So, the Catalunyan Separatists will control the government in the ostensibly want-away region. This could have a kind of "domino effect" in other regions of Spain - The Basque Country most significantly you'd imagine.

There was a record turn-out in the elections too, which means that both sides probably mobilised their support as the majority is slim.

I think the region is a net contributor to the flailing Spanish economy, so you can understand why there would be resentment in the region.

Is it time to start thinking about micro-states across the EU? There certainly seems to be a groundswell of support for the fragmentation of larger countries into their constituent parts - Catalunya, Scotland to name two that recently held elections/referenda on the issue - and with the SNP being the largest party in Scotland, and the Junts pel Sí in the same position in Catalunya now, although not to the same extent.

Is there anything similar in any of the German states - do Bavarians harbour thoughts of breaking away from the Federation? The areas of Romania that are historically Hungarian?

We've essentially seen it happen in the former Yugoslavia, where smaller nations than Catalunya have emerged to become viable separate entities - based pretty much solely on ethnic lines - after years of oppression under Communism - now neither the Scots nor the Catalunyans could be considered in any put-upon, but they still seem to want to break off from the central power.

glued

The recent resurgence for support for independence comes from the economic recession. Before 2008 support for independence was only at 20% and now it's at about 50% but declining year-on-year.

It'll be interesting to see how Madrid reacts to this result but there is no way a vote is going to happen soon and I don't think it will in my lifetime.

You're seeing a similar movement in Veneto who have a slightly more popular move for independence than the Catalans.

Manach

This is interesting from a historical perspective. There was a book by Norman Davis on the subsumed states of Europe, "Vanished Kingdoms". These are all the various provences that were amalgamated to form the current shape of the continent. Given the regionalisation drive of the EU, it will be interesting to see how many nation states will remain so within another generation.

josephryan1989

Smaller weaker parochial political entities that identify according to ethnicity/language/religion etc controlled by the umbrella of the EU and global corporate capitalism rather than large strong nations with independent foreign policies that can make waves in the new world order? Ireland is the model. A weak military neutral non-entity.

Barna77

Well, pro independence parties got 47.75% of votes, while parties against independence got 52.75% :rolleyes:

Due to the proportional representation electoral system in Spain, pro independece will get more seats.
And yes, the awful estate of the Spanish economy has a lot to do with the results, but also the attitude of the conservative central government in Madrid. Their arrogance and contempt to the Catalan issue has done nothing but help the separatist cause,
It happened in the 1990s when they were in power. And it has happened again

A day later, and they are already at each other's throats.

Sometimes I think just let them have a referendum. Or let them go, so won't have to hear them moaning never again.
But here we go again.

gobsh!te

The people in power seem to be sh!tting themselves judging by the threats they are making if Catalonia becomes independent.

All the more reason to do it.

Apparently democracy is only good when removing Arab leaders but it doesn't seem just in places like Catalonia.

It would be fantastic if this happens in my opinion but I can't see it being allowed.

Subcomandante Marcos

Catalunya is a net contributor currently but it also has an ageing population, it won't be long before those pensioners need their retirement money and Catalunya needs free movement of labour to fill jobs to pay taxes so those pensions can be paid.

I thin if they want independence, and it's passes in a 1 man 1 vote referendum, fair ball to them, but I suspect that a lot of the people voting for the want away parties did so out of defiance to Madrid and a "you better start paying attention to us" jealous girlfriend sort of way. When it comes time to put up or shut up I think the majority will see sense and accept further devolution as an alternative.

As for Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia, it's even less likely to happen there.

gobsh!te

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Catalunya is a net contributor currently but it also has an ageing population, it won't be long before those pensioners need their retirement money and Catalunya needs free movement of labour to fill jobs to pay taxes so those pensions can be paid.

I thin if they want independence, and it's passes in a 1 man 1 vote referendum, fair ball to them, but I suspect that a lot of the people voting for the want away parties did so out of defiance to Madrid and a "you better start paying attention to us" jealous girlfriend sort of way. When it comes time to put up or shut up I think the majority will see sense and accept further devolution as an alternative.

As for Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia, it's even less likely to happen there.

Why would it happen in Andalusia? They benifit from regions like Catalonia producing more than they take and Andalusians speak Castilian.

Subcomandante Marcos

gobsh!te wrote: »

Why would it happen in Andalusia? They benifit from regions like Catalonia producing more than they take and Andalusians speak Castilian.

Andalusia has had a long tradition of nationalist movements and has had one of the most successful movements for autonomy within Spain. It's considered a "Historic Nationality" and is recognised as being separate to the rest of Spain culturally and historically.

And it's not likely to happen at all. I said it's not likely to happen in Catalunya and even less likely to happen in the other regions with nationalist movements.

gobsh!te

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Andalusia has had a long tradition of nationalist movements and has had one of the most successful movements for autonomy within Spain. It's considered a "Historic Nationality" and is recognised as being separate to the rest of Spain culturally and historically.

And it's not likely to happen at all. I said it's not likely to happen in Catalunya and even less likely to happen in the other regions with nationalist movements.

I lived in Spain for 2 years. I saw how Catalans and Basque people felt and generally they were slightly pro independence (more so the Basque people). Galicians....from the people I spoke to, I don't know if it is an issue for them. Not once did I see anyone from Andalusia speak of this.

Regarding the " most successful movements for autonomy"? Can you provide some details?

Andalusia is one of or maybe the poorest regions in Spain.

Subcomandante Marcos

gobsh!te wrote: »

I lived in Spain for 2 years. I saw how Catalans and Basque people felt and generally they were slightly pro independence (more so the Basque people). Galicians....from the people I spoke to, I don't know if it is an issue for them. Not once did I see anyone from Andalusia speak of this.

Regarding the " most successful movements for autonomy"? Can you provide some details?

Andalusia is one of or maybe the poorest regions in Spain.

I said "one of" not "the most" the are the only region to have their legislation to solidify their autonomy and the scope of the autonomous government completely unopposed (well, there were 2 absentees) by the parliament in Madrid (2006).

And again, I didn't say there are Andalusians storming government offices and overthrowing the Military, I basically said Catalunya won't be independent any time soon and the OTHER regions with nationalist movements and histories of nationalist movements won't be doing it either.

The 4 regions I named are the 4 with the longest standing and most overt separatist histories. I'm not trying to say it's equivalent in each region, just that they exist.

Scotland, N.I., Wales and Cornwall, but obviously it's just a leeeeeeeeeetle more of a big deal in Scotland than it is in Wales or Cornwall.

There are separatist movements all over Spain by the way, there's even a Castilian nationalist movement.

gobsh!te

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

I said "one of" not "the most" the are the only region to have their legislation to solidify their autonomy and the scope of the autonomous government completely unopposed (well, there were 2 absentees) by the parliament in Madrid (2006).

And again, I didn't say there are Andalusians storming government offices and overthrowing the Military, I basically said Catalunya won't be independent any time soon and the OTHER regions with nationalist movements and histories of nationalist movements won't be doing it either.

The 4 regions I named are the 4 with the longest standing and most overt separatist histories. I'm not trying to say it's equivalent in each region, just that they exist.

Scotland, N.I., Wales and Cornwall, but obviously it's just a leeeeeeeeeetle more of a big deal in Scotland than it is in Wales or Cornwall.

There are separatist movements all over Spain by the way, there's even a Castilian nationalist movement.

Andalusia has no reason really to leave Spain. Catalonia does very much so in relation to the GDP per person.

I'd like to see it all break up personally

Subcomandante Marcos

gobsh!te wrote: »

Andalusia has no reason really to leave Spain. Catalonia does very much so in relation to the GDP per person.

I'd like to see it all break up personally

Have you read my posts? Where did I say they had a reason to leave Spain, I think I've said a few times that they won't be leaving Spain anytime soon.

Catalunya currently has a high GDP, that might not and probably would not be true after indepednace, being outside of the Euro, trying to float a new currency, having to fund a brand new military, transfrom the Mossos d'Esquadra into a new national force as well as replace all of the Guardia Civil, Cuerpo Nacional de Policía and Servicio de Vigilancia Aduanera who will be recalled to Madrid and sent elsewhere.

And that's before foreign investments slows due to no longer being a gateway to the free trade block.

Catalunya also has a very old population, which means they need to start pumping out those sprogs if the aren't going to rely on national coffers for boots pensions in future.

gobsh!te

None of these things would be a problem because you fail to see that if they leave Spain that they would have zero debt to pay.

The pension argument could be made for 90% of countries across the western world.

Social Security in the US is expected to be insolvent in less than 20 years...it'll go bust long before then in my opinion.

johnnyskeleton

josephryan1989 wrote: »

Smaller weaker parochial political entities that identify according to ethnicity/language/religion etc controlled by the umbrella of the EU and global corporate capitalism rather than large strong nations with independent foreign policies that can make waves in the new world order? Ireland is the model. A weak military neutral non-entity.

Mod note:

Lets leave global corporate capitalism and the new world order out of this very specific issue please.

Barna77

gobsh!te wrote: »

None of these things would be a problem because you fail to see that if they leave Spain that they would have zero debt to pay.
.

Catalonian government wasted no time to ask Madrid for money when Spain was "bailed out". Sure that must be repaid, unless they've done it already.

My brother lives in Barcelona. Says it's unbelievable how the Generalitat (Cataluna's government ) has been cutting any sort of funding, benefits, basically austerity, but was happy to spend millions on the 300 anniversary of Barcelona's bombing in 1714 (their own Sept 11th)

gobsh!te

Barna77 wrote: »

Catalonian government wasted no time to ask Madrid for money when Spain was "bailed out". Sure that must be repaid, unless they've done it already.

My brother lives in Barcelona. Says it's unbelievable how the Generalitat (Cataluna's government ) has been cutting any sort of funding, benefits, basically austerity, but was happy to spend millions on the 300 anniversary of Barcelona's bombing in 1714 (their own Sept 11th)

I'm sure it is a lot less than the 33% part they have as part of Spain's overall debt.

Anyway, if you understand how the debt money system works, then you'll understand that they cannot be paid down and they continually increase.
This would be a fresh start for Catalonia.

HalloweenJack

AFAIK, there's nothing in the Spanish constitution that allows for a community to become independent, it's entirely down to whoever's in charge at the time. The Catalan referendum last year was just a show, it has no legal bearing whatsoever.

Yes, pro-independence parties now control the Generalitat but as long as the PP are in charge, they will stick their fingers in their ears and scream "Nah, nah, nah, I am not listening!". They have no legal obligation to allow a Catalan vote on independence to be recognised and that suits them perfectly because they won't allow it as long as they can.

Practically every week, there's a new scandal regarding a member of PP and they don't give a crap. They don't care how long Catalunya goes on about independence, PP are brilliant at ignoring people if they're not interested in/don't like what they have to say.

gobsh!te

HalloweenJack wrote: »

AFAIK, there's nothing in the Spanish constitution that allows for a community to become independent, it's entirely down to whoever's in charge at the time. The Catalan referendum last year was just a show, it has no legal bearing whatsoever.

Yes, pro-independence parties now control the Generalitat but as long as the PP are in charge, they will stick their fingers in their ears and scream "Nah, nah, nah, I am not listening!". They have no legal obligation to allow a Catalan vote on independence to be recognised and that suits them perfectly because they won't allow it as long as they can.

Practically every week, there's a new scandal regarding a member of PP and they don't give a crap. They don't care how long Catalunya goes on about independence, PP are brilliant at ignoring people if they're not interested in/don't like what they have to say.

Rajoy is against it but he'll not be leader for too long.

Some of the leftist parties are ok with the referendum and they might take power soon

HalloweenJack

The next Spanish GE will be interesting. It's pretty hard to imagine who will win. Noone will win outright, a coalition is going to happen but who's going to join up with who is far from certain.

PP won't support Catalan independence, I'd be very surprised if PSOE did too, Ciudadanos aren't in favour of it despite being Catalans, I'm not too sure of Podemos' official stance but I found an article from May (here, in Spanish) in which Pablo Iglesias says he doesn't want Catalunya to leave Spain but would be open to letting them vote on it, if it is constitutionally possible. After that, any other party that supports Catalan independence is going to be a bit part player in a coalition, at best.

There is huge swell of support for Catalan independence at the moment but even then the pro-Catalan coalition won by a small margin. They have 72 out of 135 seats and 47.7% of the popular vote. The referendum last year had a big victory but it had a very low turnout (roughly 40%). Most importantly, it was non-binding, it was purely for show.

From what I have heard and read, a legally-binding referendum, within the current framework of the constitution, would need to be voted on by ALL Spanish citizens and I'd be certain they'd refuse to allow Catalunya to leave, whether that's right or wrong is irrelevant.

I'm a firm believer in Catalan (and Basque) independence and I hope they get it but the dream and the reality are a long way apart. While there might be a lot of support currently for it, the destiny of Catalunya lies in Madrid.

Catalan independence can occur if the Madrid government allows it. From a purely monetary point of view, bearing in mind how badly the recession hit Spain, why would a federal state allow a net contributor leave? There would also be a lot of costs involved on both sides for indpendence to happen and this is the latest reason those against Catalan independence have been trotting out. Very important as countless times I've heard people say that in Spain people vote with their pocket, not their heart.

Not to mention, the common belief among non-Catalan Spaniards that Catalans are Spaniards and Catalunya is a part of Spain.

It would be great if it could happen but for now it's just a lot of chest-puffing from the Catalans. Madrid has no obligation whatsoever to listen to them. It may sound cruel but Madrid has been ignoring Catalan pleas for independence for centuries, a sudden increase in the volume isn't going to change that.

seachto7

What about the parts of the Basque country and Catalonia in France? What of them if both regions got independence?