How many hits have you taken?

Bleating Lamb

Know it's v early in season but how many hits have people taken so far?

I felt I took too many last year so am curtailing my urge to take them;)

So far have taken one -4 hit this year to sort defensive issues.

CSF

Zero, but that is likely to change this week.

iroced

4 4 pts hits already! This year I'm going for it :P!

Scorpion Sting

None so far.

greedygoblin

Zero here too. Almost took my first of the season this week to upgrade Anya to Payet. Had just enough money itb but decided against it in the end. Payet subsequently went up and Anya's now close to a drop.

Hopefully Payet stays quiet for a few weeks now.

spock.

Just one so far although I also used my wildcard

km79

One
Have 2 free transfers this week but if I want martial and hazard I'll have to do 3......

Pete Moss

Two -4s so far. The first was down to injuries and off the back of a really good week, so I felt I could afford the -4 in order to keep my wildcard for later. The second was value related, I needed to make my weekly change but also had to get rid of someone who was plummeting fast.

I don't like taking them though. They can be real difference makers by the end of the season.

SpaceCowb0y

i took an 8 point hit on Monday

DarraghF197

None, and have two FT's and I don't know what to do with them. I've already wild carded though.

PARlance

iroced wrote: »

4 4 pts hits already! This year I'm going for it :P!

You lunatic!!!!

4 here as well
I haven't looked further than their immediate impact but each one (well the previous 3) have paid off both in terms of points and prices.

Rikand

I have actually only taken 1 -4 so far.

Frankly, I'm surprised at myself

AdMMM

Took a -8 in GW2 when it became clear that the players I had high hopes for were going to be flops.

Have been getting by on my FTs since then (but I have also played my WC)

Mr.Prodston

2 hits. I hate the whole "Points hits are evil" though. They are neccesary unless you pick the perfect team at the start of the season or on your WC and that only happens to probably the top 50-100 players each season. People see that they didn't take hits and then think "Oh they didn't take hits so I shouldn't" but if they already had the players in their team to score well they didn't need to and could get by on one move a week!

I could go off on my usual spiel about it even further but I'll just get cranky and I know I'm right anyway :pac:

GW3 I went for -4:

Henderbus -> Mahrez
PVA -> Kolorov

The first hit will probably prove to be the best hit ever taken in history.

GW4 I went for -4:

Rooney -> Wilson
Wessi -> Silva

The 2nd was a qualified success, initially at least. Wessi came off after 30 minutes and Silva got an assist. I was 1 point up straight away not to mention Wilson's exploits over Rooney. Silva missing the next 2 games while Wessi scored 13 in the following game before missing out against Pool was unfortunate but dems the breaks.

I took Wessi out for a while as Silva looked sharp and I knew Wessi was liable to miss some away games. No surprise he was sacrificed after Norwich got their red. It was the right thing to do at the time but you can't predict that Silva will pick up a knock the first week and get injured in the warm up the 2nd.

So yeah I've taken 2 hits :pac:

Lucas Hood

2 hits so far.
One worked great, the other was a disaster

FHFC

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

2 hits. I hate the whole "Points hits are evil" though. They are neccesary unless you pick the perfect team at the start of the season or on your WC and that only happens to probably the top 50-100 players each season. People see that they didn't take hits and then think "Oh they didn't take hits so I shouldn't" but if they already had the players in their team to score well they didn't need to and could get by on one move a week!

I could go off on my usual spiel about it even further but I'll just get cranky and I know I'm right anyway :pac:

GW3 I went for -4:

Henderbus -> Mahrez
PVA -> Kolorov

The first hit will probably prove to be the best hit ever taken in history.

GW4 I went for -4:

Rooney -> Wilson
Wessi -> Silva

The 2nd was a qualified success, initially at least. Wessi came off after 30 minutes and Silva got an assist. I was 1 point up straight away not to mention Wilson's exploits over Rooney. Silva missing the next 2 games while Wessi scored 13 in the following game before missing out against Pool was unfortunate but dems the breaks.

I took Wessi out for a while as Silva looked sharp and I knew Wessi was liable to miss some away games. No surprise he was sacrificed after Norwich got their red. It was the right thing to do at the time but you can't predict that Silva will pick up a knock the first week and get injured in the warm up the 2nd.

So yeah I've taken 2 hits :pac:

Spot on post.

People always try to make or live by concrete rules regarding hits. This is impossible. Every one is different and while sometimes a hit can be a mistake, plenty of times not taking a hit is a bigger mistake.

Somebody referred above to the about the hits deductions making a big difference to your rank at the end of the season. This is disregarding the points gained short and longer term by making thoae changes, assuming your player judgement was right most of the time. Its easy and natural to look at your final rank and points total at the end of the season and say 'man, if i hadn't dropped 36 points on hits look where I'd be' etc. But this is imo conpletely incorrect. You quite possibly would have less points had you not taken thise hits.

CSF

Essentially points hits is about avoiding the ones that are not necessary or could has been done a week later, while maximising the impact of them for points scores that outweigh the hit.

If I bring in Pedro this week for a -4, he blanks, but scores 2 the following week, I'm looking at that as a bad hit because I could have done it for free the week after.

Timing is everything.

LostArt

Just one so far, I'll probably be taking another or even a -8 in the next couple of weeks to tidy up my squad

Paully D

Zero so far.

Though I'm starting to think it might impact my decision making in the future - "oh I've taken no hits so far and am doing quite well so I'm sure I can avoid taking a hit here" - player I would transfer out blanks while player I would bring in for a hit bags a brace.

I'm conscious of it now so gotta make sure it doesn't happen.

Lemlin

I took an 8 point hit in GW4 and a four point hit in GW3. Both pretty much covered themselves the week I completed them and I still have my wildcard intact.

I may yet take one this weekend as I have Gomez dropped and Saylor injured.

0 so far, but may make changes next week to that.

danganabu

A -4 two weeks ago and a -8 this week, have played my WC and I'm still not happy with my team :mad:

iroced

Warning: very long post .


It's very very complicated to honestly assess the real impact of (your) points hits. Because there are many ways to look at it. What transfers do you include in your points hit(s)? How do you separate your FT(s) from your pts hit transfer(s)? Do you actually do it? Do you look at it over just the single GW you took the hit(s) in? Or over several GWs? What would have you done anyway without the hit(s)?

If I take (again ) my own example.

GW2: Walcott + Bony (+ Kane would have been (C) + Wanyama to sub in for Wally) -> Payet + Benteke (C) (+ Kane) = 0 + 1 (+ 4 + 2) -> 9 + 18 - 4 (+ 2) = 7 -> 25

GW3: Kane + Rooney (would have been (C)) -> Gomis + Aguero (C) = 2 + 4 -> 6 + 4 - 4 = 6 -> 6

GW4: Fabregas + Azpilicueta -> Pedro + Kolarov = 2 + 2 -> 7 + 6 - 4 = 4 -> 9

GW5: Payet + Benteke -> A.Ayew + Wilson = 16 + 6 -> 2 + 2 - 4 = 22 -> 0

Total = 39 -> 40. Phew! Despite my GW5 nightmare I'm still on the positive side.

This is the full picture. But it includes my free transfers. Let's just consider my hit transfers only.

GW2: Bony (+ Kane would have been (C)) -> Benteke (C) (+ Kane) = 1 (+ 4) -> 18 - 4 (+ 2) = 5 -> 16

GW3: Rooney (would have been (C)) -> Aguero (C) = 4 -> 4 - 4 = 4 -> 0

GW4: Azpilicueta -> Kolarov = 2 -> 6 - 4 = 2 -> 2

GW5: Benteke -> Wilson = 6 -> 2 - 4 = 6 -> -2

Total = 17 -> 16. I lost 1 net point.

Now let's try analysing it in more detail.

GW2 Bony to Benteke. I had to make up for my initial team mistake(s). I had rushed my team in and got Bony for City cover without in depth analyses (though I wasn't expecting Agüero to feature that early). Anyway, I see this point hit as a total success and as a necessity. It would have been stupid to ignore it for the sake of not losing 4 pts. Benteke did nothing else than his 9 pts this week for me but since he was my planned captain, my gain was huge.

GW3 Rooney to Agüero was a rushed team value long-term transfer. Rushed because Agüero had not yet played a full game & Rooney was home to Newcastle. Long-term because he's Agüero and he impressed the World with his performance vs Chelsea. It didn't cost me too much this very week but can't say Agüero was a success so far.

GW4 Azpi to Kolarov was a great success. I had missed Kolarov's big hauls but Azpi had done very well too despite no CS. I broke even which is a good result. And value-wise, Kolarov was and still is FPL gold.

GW5 Benteke to Wilson. I still see it as a gamble that could/should have paid off. Benteke scored maybe the goal of the season so far away to United & Wilson blanked. But, if I hadn't done it, I'd have kept Benteke home to Norwich and would certainly have made him (C). Wilson got 7 pts and my actual (C) was Agüero. I banked my transfer last week. I guess I'd have done the same if I hadn't taken this hit. So I'm looking at 1x2 + 2 -> 7 + 2x2 = 4 -> 11. 7 pts gain the GW after the hit. 8 pts lost the GW of the hit. I almost broke even on that one in the end. And I gained value.

So, overall, I am pretty satisfied with them. They didn't affect too much my overall rank so far. I'm steady around 100-130k since GW1 (bar GW2 45k brilliance but I don't blame my GW3 hit for the fall, my (C) fail is much more to blame (and I'd have failed too without the hit)).

Satisfied bar one of course. Bloody Payet. It was a free transfer but I can say it was part of my mid-term strategy to build team value the most sensibly possible without using my WC. Payet scored 21 pts for A.Ayew 4. So far, it cost me 17 pts and 1 transfer. Value wise I've made so far a £0.1m profit on A.Ayew (had done none on Payet then). I'd be doing the same with Payet had I kept him. I'd actually be closer to a £0.2m profit.

So if there's one transfer to blame (free and hits included) it's this one. Therefore, like Mr. P & FHFC said, hits are not the problem and it is ridiculous to deduce your hits-related points from your overall score to say you lost x points. The problem is just what a very bad transfer can do or shall I say not do to your team.


Finally, I could factor in the non-WC effect.
I debated it a long time but eventually did not play my WC for GW3. I'd probably have gotten something close to the FSA template GW3 WC team i.e.

Courtois(/Myhill), McCarthy
Shaw, Kolarov, Gomez, Martin, Francis
Silva, Sanchez, Payet, Mahrez, Westwood
Aguero, Gomis, Diouf
~£1m(/~£2m) in the bank.

So. GW3. Would have been 25 pts better with Myhill (would have played McCarthy) and 30 pts better with Courtois (mainly thanks to Kolarov, Martin & Diouf). Think I'd have gone that latter route to get Chelsea def cover.

GW4. Would have done Diouf to Wilson & Payet to Pedro for -4. Would have been 8 pts better (mainly thanks to Wilson).

GW5. Would have gotten Myhill for injured Courtois. I scored 6 pts better than I would have (due to Bellerin > Shaw). But took a 4 pts hit.

GW6. Would have replaced Shaw. No idea for who though. Bellerin tempting but away to Chelsea. Chelsea not on form. A switch back to Azpi? Maybe. Maybe not. Think I'd have waited and banked it since Gomez & Francis had great home fixtures. Martin would have then been a glorious auto-sub for Gomez . Would have been 15 pts better.

So, despite missing out on Payet's big haul too, I would have scored 51 more pts had I played my WC on GW3 and would have about £1-1.5m added team value. 344 pts would have me around 1k. So, holding on my WC wasn't the greatest of ideas so far.

I'm now not very far from what my WC team would have been though (Gomez, Francis, Martin & Sanchez the main diff). This week I'd have given in to Gomis -> Martial and would have replaced Shaw with Azpi I think betting on Chelsea settling at the back, especially for their decent run of upcoming fixtures.
Think I'll continue to monitor this until I actually use my WC. I kinda have to now :pac: :rolleyes:...