VW down 20%

_Tombstone_

By being a sneaky shower and getting caught rigging some of their Cars to behave differently when having their emissions tested.

Volkswagen shares plunged by nearly 20 percent on Monday after the German carmaker admitted it had rigged emissions tests of diesel-powered vehicles in the United States, and U.S. authorities said they would widen their probe to other automakers.

VW shares fell 18.6 percent to close at 132.20 euros, wiping some 14 billion euros ($15.6 billion) off its market cap. Shares in Porsche SE, a holding company which controls 51 percent of VW's common stock, also plunged around 20 percent, while the European autos index was down 4.1 percent.

jank

Down another 20%...
Hmmm, could be worth a punt for the long term value invester but the scale of the fraud here could be more far reaching.

Dardania

If it goes too far, the German government will buy.

Could be a risk of getting holding diluted?

daheff

Dardania wrote: »

If it goes too far, the German government will buy.

what makes you say that? Would EU anti-competition rules not preclude this (under illegal state aid)?

Dardania

I say it because it's a major employer & exporter from Germany (I'm sure it's near the top of the list here: http://www.worldstopexports.com/germanys-top-10-exports/2061 )
The French were able to nationalise PSA at one stage lately...

Either way, I'm after buying some BMW - the German manufacturers are depressed prices at moment due to VAG imploding, and from what I've read BMW might be clean after all is said & done
Plus, they have good electric cars

lucky john

Be very careful getting involved here yet. VW are going to need exceptionally deep pockets to get out of this mess. By the time the US authorities and plenty of others have fined them they will still have possible class actions by customers all over the place to pay out on. Add to that the cost of recalls, fixing the problem, loss of sales, dealer suits, and maybe the biggest of all reputational damage it wont be easy calling the bottom. And Dardinia may well be right, there could be a take over or rights issue or bale out to come yet. way to early to tell but I bet this is as hard on the "German" brand as it will be on VW's. proceed with caution.

marathonic

lucky john wrote: »

Add to that the cost of recalls, fixing the problem,

By fix the problem, I assume you mean to remove the software that misreports emissions? It's not a major fix to do that - albeit, there's still a major cost to have the dealers apply the software upgrade.

If you mean getting the cars to an efficiency level that matches the results reported, that's probably something that isn't physically possible.

rayfitzharris

marathonic wrote: »

By fix the problem, I assume you mean to remove the software that misreports emissions? It's not a major fix to do that - albeit, there's still a major cost to have the dealers apply the software upgrade.

If you mean getting the cars to an efficiency level that matches the results reported, that's probably something that isn't physically possible.

If the emissions standards are impossible to meet without the circumvention logic; will that make thousands of vw cars illegal on the road, will they still pass NCT/DOE testing?

Things could get a lot more messy before it gets better for vw, if ever..

Dardania

I'd say the SW update will make them meet th emissions criteria alright.

Not sure if they'll get the fuel efficiency figures, or power output, as advertised

Cute Hoor

I'd be very cautious about investing in VW at the moment, as well as their technical issues (withdrawing the cars, fixing them, will they meet emissions limits, etc) there has to be every possibility that there will be shareholder class actions against VW for misleading investors. I wouldn't touch any of the car manufacturers at the moment, until they have publicly announced and provided evidence that they were'nt at the same craic.

lucky john

marathonic wrote: »

By fix the problem, I assume you mean to remove the software that misreports emissions? It's not a major fix to do that - albeit, there's still a major cost to have the dealers apply the software upgrade.

If you mean getting the cars to an efficiency level that matches the results reported, that's probably something that isn't physically possible.

Removing the software will not fix the problem but there will be a cost even in doing that. The problem is getting the emissions within the legal limits for each country. I'm no auto expert so its quit possible this can be done by a simple calibration of the engine and giving up a little bit of fuel efficiency but at this moment we don't know. that makes investing in VW dangerous even after a 30 or 40% drop.

Prezatch

lucky john wrote: »

Removing the software will not fix the problem but there will be a cost even in doing that. The problem is getting the emissions within the legal limits for each country. I'm no auto expert so its quit possible this can be done by a simple calibration of the engine and giving up a little bit of fuel efficiency but at this moment we don't know. that makes investing in VW dangerous even after a 30 or 40% drop.

I'm no car expert either but it is bewildering to think that if this is the case, and the emissions could be lowered through some tweaks over the next 12 months to bring them within tolerance levels, why on earth did the highest level of management allow this defeat device to exist in their cars for the last 7 years? Surely the risk of being found out eventually was overwhelming especially given how stringent the rules on emissions have increased over the last 7 years! It's an absolutely mind boggling story

Dardania

JoeyD wrote: »

I'm no car expert either but it is bewildering to think that if this is the case, and the emissions could be lowered through some tweaks over the next 12 months to bring them within tolerance levels, why on earth did the highest level of management allow this defeat device to exist in their cars for the last 7 years? Surely the risk of being found out eventually was overwhelming especially given how stringent the rules on emissions have increased over the last 7 years! It's an absolutely mind boggling story

"Plausible deniability"

This could cost VW tens of billions in fines, not to mention the damage to their sales and reputation. Stay well away until there is much more clarity.

Dardania

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0924/729920-volkswagen-fallout/

_Tombstone_

Dardania wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0924/729920-volkswagen-fallout/

Z arrogance of z Germans here^^, US Gov has being looking at sketchy emissions from VW cars for probably over a year (I was unsure of timeline) and VW had a chance to put it right and didn't.

Delighted for them.

daheff

How VW was busted


this is a good article on how VW got found out.

Timmaay

Dardania wrote: »

I say it because it's a major employer & exporter from Germany (I'm sure it's near the top of the list here: http://www.worldstopexports.com/germanys-top-10-exports/2061 )
The French were able to nationalise PSA at one stage lately...

Either way, I'm after buying some BMW - the German manufacturers are depressed prices at moment due to VAG imploding, and from what I've read BMW might be clean after all is said & done
Plus, they have good electric cars

Vehicle emissions is an area that I did alot of research in over the past 5 year, and it was fairly common knowledge back then that all most the manufacturers, in particular the Germans were achieving ridiculously low diesel emissions readings during the legislative NEDC test cycle, and that they could all be very easily "cycle beating", with this hidden software that woke up when it spotted the NEDC cycle. However it was never proven until now with VW. I'd be extremely surprised if it doesn't come out that BMW were at it also, when you look back at the orginal 520d, it was a huge heavy big executive car, with 188bhp, but lower CO2 test emissions than most 1l city runabouts at the time! So I'd be slow to be throwing money into BMW just yet!

_Tombstone_

Car manufacturers can't be fined says 1970s Clean Air Act - No big fine coming for VW.

https://thestack.com/world/2015/09/30/volkswagen-clean-air-act-loophole/