General Election Simulation

EnPassant

I have run a simulation of the next Irish general election based on the results of the Red C opinion poll published in last week's Sunday Business Post.

The poll results were: FG 28, Labour 10, FF 18, SF 16.

The simulation runs 1000 general elections varying first-preference votes and transfers randomly by up to +/- 15%

FG        LO        FF        SF        **
Opinion Poll        28        10        18        16        28
Average             50.71     13.13     28.43     25.74     38.99
Most Common         50        13        29        26        39
Happy Path          68        25        38        34        51
Horrid Path         39         7        13        16        27

The simulation results are at https://irishelectionsimulation.wordpress.com/

You can download a spreadsheet containing
- average result per constituency
- most common result per constituency
- happy path per constituency (most seats with least votes for each party)
- horrid path per constituency (opposite of happy path)
- a sample election with all counts for each constituency

I will hopefully run it for each new poll that is produced up to the election.