Could The Middle East Get Worse? You Bet!

josephryan1989

For the remainder of Obama's Presidency I predict he is going to do nothing about Syria and leave the debris for the next American President to deal with or not.

Intelligence and military analysts have come forward saying their reports were altered because they did not paint the rosy picture of a retreating ISIS in the face of drone attacks and aerial bombardment. Rather ISIS is surging - advancing and expanding its territory, drawing more recruits and steadily growing in wealth, power and influence over Sunni Muslims in the region.

Assad is understandably in the bosom of Russia and Iran who both see scope for strategic advancement in the region. Iran wants to unite Shias and grab the spoils in what was once Iraq following Obama's withdrawal of the troops that were propping it up following the success of the surge toward the end of Bush's administration.

Russia is gleefully expanding its Mediterranean presence on the western Syrian coast while Russian troops are increasingly fighting alongside the Russian financed trained and equipped Syrian regular military. As American/Israeli relations cool Netanyahu and Putin have become buddies. General al-Sisi of Egypt has hosted his new best friend Putin in Cairo.

A coalition of Sunni Arab Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia are increasingly supporting Sunni terror groups and ramping up their Islamist fundamentalist rhetoric as they lose patience with the United States as an ally against a surging Iran triumphant as sanctions are lifted and it gears up to thumb its nose at the United States and restart its nuclear program.

The Houthis of Yemen backed by Iran are being pounded by the Saudi led coalition which has led to a humanitarian crisis soon to be equal to the current crisis in Syria which is currently swamping Europe with refugees. Simultaneously Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are gearing to arm themselves with nuclear weapons to meet the threat of a nuclear Iran as the influence of the United States to rein them in wanes.

Impatience with the United States is also likely to drive Sunni Turkey to intervene increasingly in Syria perhaps sending in its own ground troops to fight Assad's forces who have been backed for years now by Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Shia Hezbollah. Kurdish separatists although Sunni are probably going to receive more backing from Iran and Russia as Turkey fights both them AND Isis. If NATO does not back Turkey, then the NATO alliance already in tatters since the Iraq War will be finally discarded.

If the Saudis and other corrupt Gulf leaders attempt to ride the tiger of Islamic fundamentalism they may well be eaten by it. On paper the Saudi military is strong and armed to the teeth by American weaponry but without a warrior spirit it could collapse in the face of an ISIS infiltration. American troops have been withdrawn from Saudi Arabia for years now - incidentally one of the goals of Bin Laden. More than 30 years ago Islamic radicals briefly seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca and were only ousted with the help of Western troops. Were ISIS to storm it during the haj and declare it for the Caliphate the Saudis would run for Europe where their money is already safe in Swiss bank accounts.

As American power declines in the Mid East and the enemies of American power seem to number more than the sands of the sea shore the apocalyptic rhetoric of the Christian right has heated up. An cynical opportunist like Donald Trump can bank on right wing anger at Obama and his perceived weakening of American power to give him a shot at the White House. His Democratic counterpart Hilary Clinton is also hawkish however her campaign is weakening due to the challenge of Bernie Sanders who is an outspoken dove.

If Trump or Jeb Bush win the Republican nomination and the White House we are guaranteed a return of American military might in some form to the Mid East - probably an intervention in Syria to create a corridor to attack ISIS or an aerial campaign against Iran or both. If Sanders becomes President it is likely there will be no major military intervention but an increase in drone attacks. If America intervenes in the Mid East under a Republican President then Saudi Arabia and its allies can be confident of US backing. If there is no US intervention then the Saudis and their allies will increasingly go it alone and American huffing will count for nothing.

The Europeans will increasingly close their borders and deny access to Middle Eastern refugees as they will be incapable of taking more while risking a rise of the extreme right. Exasperated Eastern Europe countries could soon turn their machine guns on columns of refugees to keep their borders intact. The increasing chaos of the Middle East will discourage any European intervention in Syria or Yemen or anywhere else. European youngsters do not want to fight and die in Syria. They are too interested in pop music to care. If America decides to intervene there will be howls of outrage just as there were in 2003 when Saddam was overthrown. If America does not intervene Europe will bow to the inevitable influence of Russia and Iran in Syria and tut tut as Sunni Syrians die by the hundreds of thousands and live in misery in refugee camps.

Inspired by the strength of ISIS, angry young Western Muslims will continue to flock to its ranks in droves while disaffected young white Western psychotic misfits like Lisa Borch or Jake Bilardi who want to murder will also join the deranged death cult or will commit lone wolf attacks against their own societies. Emboldened Muslim radicals in the West will terrorize moderate Muslims into silence and boldly exert their power and control over Muslim neighborhoods in European cities that will become no go areas for Western police. Instead of protests there will be beheadings and attacks on public figures and politicians who challenge them while sharia will be de facto law in their ghettos.

A craven politically correct liberal elite will probably bend to their will blaming themselves for the radicalization of Muslims and a two tier society might emerge in the years ahead with a cruel sharia regime for Muslims and a chilling effect on "offensive" Western music, movies, literature and pornography. Violent right wing extremists could paint themselves as protectors of Western European values and instead of being reviled extremists such as Anders Brievik might be lionized and his imitators would commit atrocities to match those of the Islamists. A Northern Ireland style scenario on a European continent wide scale could be the result with military forces on the streets to protect the public from Islamic insurgents but with European governments secretly backing right wing paramilitary death squads to attack Muslims. An aging white European population and a rising Muslim birthrate will encourage Muslim extremists to greater acts of violence and simultaneously encourage a backs to the wall mentality among right wing extremists who might be seen as the only sane alternative to a discredited liberal establishment.