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2016 Presidential Elections - Bernie Sanders

  • 12-09-2015 10:56am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    I know it's very early days yet but I strongly believe that we're reaching a turning point in the US presidential elections. Now's the time to get in on it.

    Basically Sanders is the only candidate with integrity. He's not funded by big business and has an amazing track record with civil rights, criminal justice and fighting for political reform. In a nutshell, he's not for sale.

    ym30mUl.png

    Up until recently there was essentially a blackout on Sanders by mass media, in hopes that he wouldn't be able to gain momentum and simply fall by the wayside. However as a result of a strong grassroots movement and incredible online response, a few key things have begun to happen.

    First of all, Sanders has overtaken Clinton in both the New Hampshire and Iowa caucus polls. These two primaries are absolutely crucial to any campaign. Clinton cannot afford to lose them.

    Secondly, Sanders is polling closer to Hillary than Obama was on this day in 2007. This is on a national scale without a single debate, and while the televised press is still belittling his chances at the same time.

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    Finally, Clinton's on a downward trend while Sanders has gone from single digits to trailing by single digits. Keep in mind that the next closest candidate, Biden, isn't even officially running.

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    I think it's clear from this alone that Sanders has an excellent shot at the democratic nomination. Here's the odds for that:

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    Things get interesting when you look at the presidential election as a whole. Here's the republican candidates for the primaries.

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    Ideally, we want to see a Sanders v. Trump election. There's not a hope in hell that Trump would win in that case. 25 percent of people polled said they would not vote at all. My guess is they're fed up with a corrupt government and would vote for anyone other than Trump. If Trump wins the republican nomination I think we'll definitely see a democratic president in office and going by the polls, it's starting to look that way.

    Here's the odds for Sanders to win overall.

    ieZOXV9.png


    Again, it's still early days and there's a bit of risk involved, but I for one will be betting big on Bernie. His track record is second to none, he even marched with King and now he's just starting to come into the media's spotlight. His rallies attract far more supporters than Clinton's and I definitely think he can win the democratic nomination at the very least.


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭ Gregk961


    Interesting stuff. Very good analysis hope it clicks for you. People betting on Trump really perplexes me


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    Whilst I agree sanders seems like a decent fellow, he's still only around 5th/6th fav, and has been for some time now.

    Not sure he has the stage presence nor the oomph to make any real impact, particularly on voter recall as an 'idol/saviour' of any sort. Indeed even looks a little creepy in some photographs. May well be the wisest and most trustworthy of the bunch, but who pays any attention to the wise old slightly softly spoken man in the corner.

    Agree HC & Jeb can be generally dismissed as folks are desperate to see real trust-able change this time. Barry 'O started off well promising change, but has been viewed as largely passive for some time now. Biden seems good, but isn't really committed.

    Sanders v. Trump, could indeed be the way it plays out.

    But if you wanted someone with hard negotiation skills at the table for fight for innovation, growth and against the increasing threats from the East, BRICS and even underlying plans to topple the usd as a global reserve currency, I'd hand the gloves to slightly brash, energetic 3rd fav Trump. If only he'd cut out some of the comedy moments.

    Trump is also largely Self-funded, and like Sanders not tied to party politics/opinion. Sanders however appears technically socialist which won't go down too well in some circles. Opposing all military interventions, trade deals and proposing new carbon taxes will get some peoples backs up.

    Another simple alternative way of looking at it would be:

    Who would you send in to a car dealership to get you the best overall 'mutual win-win package' purchase deal on a new car fleet?

    3rd.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,324 ✭✭✭ Mezcita


    but who pays any attention to the wise old slightly softly spoken man in the corner.

    Michael D. Higgins says hi.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    Whilst I agree sanders seems like a decent fellow, he's still only around 5th/6th fav, and has been for some time now.

    When it comes to things like political betting, the odds are largely determined by who punters are betting on. They do little to reflect actual polling and the latest happenings surrounding candidates campaigns. They certainly do not accurately reflect any candidates chances of winning. There's not one political scientist or consultant that thinks Trump has an even marginal chance of winning. In fact, a panel of political experts have recently put his chances of winning at 2%, 0% and -10% respectively. The fact that Sanders has been a 5th favourite for some time only serves to prove my point that in spite of the total lack of press coverage up until very recently, there's a substantial amount of people that believe he has a decent chance. Let's face it, everyone's heard of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump and so they bet on them because they're the frontrunners, when historically it's very, very rare for a frontrunner leading the polls this early to actually go on to win the election. Sanders is in an optimal position right now.

    The reason Trump is polling so well is because he has excellent name recognition, a polarising personality and because he's absolutely dominating media coverage, though not necessarily for the right reasons. Here's an excellent piece that explains it better:
    Professor David A. Schultz, Hamline University
    (Political Science, Election Expert, and author of 30 books)

    The Republican Party establishment would love to turn to Donald Trump and say "You're fired" but they can't. Trump does not need them. But that does not mean he is a shoe-in to win the party nomination or presidency. The Koch brothers can relax.

    Donald Trump may be surging in the polls and leading the Republican field for now, and he may even do well in the coming Republican debate. But ultimately he will not win the presidency as a Republican or third party candidate.
    Trump’s frontrunner status perplexes political pundits and journalists. It should not. For the last few decades, Trump’s signature mark has been his self-promotion -- hotels, books, product line, television show. Trump is brand, no different than Coke or McDonalds, and his early lead reflects that. His popularity is name recognition, reflecting the old adage that any news coverage is better than none.

    With a crowded field of 16 declared Republican candidates, Trump stands out -- as did Ventura in Minnesota -- as the anti-politician, someone with both better name recognition, and a mastery of the media his opponents simply don’t have. He has a personality that contrasts against a backdrop of bland politicians.

    Trump taps into anger and resentment, especially among white men and the uneducated, and he provides a voice for the people who see their world crumbling and are looking for someone to blame. Trump thus speaks what so many Republicans have been thinking, he is just honest in actually saying it. In that sense Trump is exactly what the Republican Party has come to represent, but now when the GOP is faced with the honesty of their own rhetoric looking them in the face, they almost cringe for what they have unleashed over a generation is an ideology of xenophobic, racist, misogynist, and poor-hating language. This is what the GOP has become and this is Trump stands for. He strips aware the veneer of the Republican Party, demonstrating that when honest, its rhetoric is unelectable.

    Finally, Trump, like Ross Perot in 1992 has money; Money to finance his campaign as the endorsed party candidate, or as a third party challenger facing the legal hurdles of getting on the ballot across the country.

    Despite these advantages, Trump’s fleeting popularity illuminates his campaign’s problems. Trump’s first place surge is 20 percent of a party where, according to 2012 exit polls, only 32 percent of the population identifies as Republican. His surge represents barely 7% percent of the potential electorate in 2016. The GOP in general faces a demographic problem: their Caucasian, Christian base is old, dying off, and shrinking each presidential election. Republicans need to win minority voters, who with each election are a greater percentage of the electorate. yet the GOP struggle to do so with their message. Trump’s immigration comments make it even harder for him to succeed among minorities.

    There’s another issue at play in Trump’s pseudo-success. Politics is like selling beer -- it is the about telling a story or having a narrative. Clearly, Trump knows how to tell a story to sell a brand, but so far he lacks a narrative or reason for his presidency. He has yet to explain why he is running, what his vision for America is, or what he hopes to accomplish. Candidates with narratives, even bad ones, beat candidates without them. Without a narrative, Trump will be unable to mobilize whatever base he has. His popularly is all in polls, not in real people, his is not a grassroots campaign. Ultimately, successful politicians have to deliver voters to caucuses, primaries, and general elections. Ninety percent of life, as Woody Allen famously said, is showing up. Trump confuses media presence and name recognition with people mobilization -- the same mistake Hillary Clinton made in her 2008 run against Obama.

    Trump faces three additional liabilities. First, politics is about passion. It is not simply candidates being passionate, but voters or supporters being passionate about the candidate. Passion is what makes people volunteer, door knock, phone call, give money, and show up to vote. Trump taps into voter anger and resentment, but not voter passion. Voters are only mobilized if they are passionate about the candidate; That is missing with Trump.

    Second, part of that passion comes with likeability and relate-ability: do voters like you, do they think you can relate to them, or vice versa. Trump lacks all this. His disdain for middle America is evident--the Trump brand is not for Joe Six Pack. Trump is an arrogant billionaire born into money and privilege and whose most famous quote is “You’re fired!” Trump’s signature line will doom him when voters decide they do not want a president who is synonymous with firing people. Mitt Romney learned that in 2012.

    Finally, with 20 plus years in the limelight, Trump has little room to redefine himself. He was always a controversial figure, described as arrogant, a buffoon, or worse. He always had high name recognition but that came with high negatives, and they are only growing. Trump will have a difficult time reversing these negatives, expanding his base, and winning over swing voters. Polls already show Trump doing poorly in swing states among swing voters, and it will only get worse.

    Trump is having his moment but it will not last. But even if he does get the Republican nomination he will not be able to translate his business brand and name recognition into a viable presidential campaign; The voters will eventually say "You're fired!" to Trump.
    Not sure he has the stage presence nor the oomph to make any real impact, particularly on voter recall as an 'idol/saviour' of any sort. Indeed even looks a little creepy in some photographs. May well be the wisest and most trustworthy of the bunch, but who pays any attention to the wise old slightly softly spoken man in the corner.

    First of all, might I remind you that Sanders has drawn the biggest crowd of any democratic candidate. He leads Hillary in the Iowa caucus by 66% - 19% amongst voters aged 18-34. That's not to mention how he has taken the internet by storm since announcing his candidacy. As someone who has been studying this election very closely, I've never seen anything like it. Trust me when I say, plenty of people are paying attention to him, and now that he's starting to get some media attention finally, the numbers are about to grow exponentially.

    Secondly, he's only 5 years older than Donald Trump, the difference being he doesn't spend thousands on tailored suits and haircare products to look his best at all times. Dismissing him as a "wise old man lacking oomph" sounds a lot like Trump's attacks on Jeb Bush and Ben Carson.
    Donald Trump thinks Jeb Bush is low-energy.
    The Republican presidential candidate called his rival "a very low-energy kind of guy" on September 2, "a low-energy person" on August 28, "very low energy" on August 24, and various other twists on the basic theme.

    b4LCR2o.png


    But if you wanted someone with hard negotiation skills at the table for fight for innovation, growth and against the increasing threats from the East, BRICS and even underlying plans to topple the usd as a global reserve currency, I'd hand the gloves to slightly brash, energetic 3rd fav Trump. If only he'd cut out some of the comedy moments.

    Who would you send in to a car dealership to get you the best overall 'mutual win-win package' purchase deal on a new car fleet?

    Right I could understand you betting on him to win the republican nomination, I must admit it's very interesting to watch his campaign and see first hand how far money goes. I could even understand if you wanted him winning just to see the absolute sh*tstorm that would ensue in the states, but I cannot comprehend the fact that you actually support him, and believe that he would have something of substance to offer as president. He is using his candidacy as an openly racist and xenophobic platform to further his self interests. Anyway I'm not here to argue with or change your beliefs, I'm just saying that he doesn't have a hope. Even for the republican nomination, experts put his chances at 20% at best.

    As a side note - for the republican nomination, Ben Carson is an absolute steal at 15/1. He has only recently surged in popularity, and I think he could steal the victory while Trump continues to attack and run campaigns against Jeb Bush. If you wanted to get in on him now's the time as I suspect the odds are going to start to shorten.
    Sanders however appears technically socialist which won't go down too well in some circles. Opposing all military interventions, trade deals and proposing new carbon taxes will get some peoples backs up.

    Correct, he's a democratic socialist and there's a bit of a stigma around socialism in the States, with some people automatically equating it with communism. However, a lot of people support ideas already implemented which are fundamentally socialist, Obamacare for example. Sanders has proposed to cut student debt in half and make public college free. Here's an excellent article explaining how this would benefit the economy. Along with that, there's a lot of other things people can get behind like getting big money out of politics, raising the minimum wage, fighting climate change, and fighting for equality for all. It'll definitely sit well with any democrats and liberals - maybe even republicans.
    Why is Bernie Sanders, a socialist, so popular with people who should hate "socialism?"

    The answer is pretty simple.

    While Americans disagree on social issues like gay marriage and abortion, they're actually pretty unified on the bread and butter economic issues that Bernie has made the core of his campaign.

    In fact, a recent poll by the Progressive Change Institute, shows that Americans overwhelmingly agree with Bernie on key issues like education, health care and the economy.

    Like Bernie, 75 percent of Americans poll support fair trade that "protects workers, the environment and jobs."

    Seventy-one percent support giving all students access to a debt-free college education.

    Seventy-one percent support a massive infrastructure spending program aimed at rebuilding our broken roads and bridges, and putting people back to work.

    Seventy percent support expanding Social Security.

    Fifty-nine percent support raising taxes on the wealthy so that millionaires pay the same amount in taxes as they did during the Reagan administration.

    Fifty-eight percent support breaking up the big banks.

    Fifty-five percent support a financial transaction or Robin Hood tax.

    Fifty-one percent support single payer health care, and so and so on.

    My decision to bet on Bernie was a very calculated decision. A couple of months ago and I would've said it was unlikely but now we're seeing the very early signs that things are about to change. Sanders is the one candidate that I think will stand up to media scrutiny and grow from it. I've heard him compared to Ron Paul but the difference is he represents the views of the majority, and there's zero sign that his campaign will fizzle out anytime soon. The only reason his name wasn't doing too well amongst the black and minority voters is because he simply didn't have the same recognition as Hillary, but now that's changing and I for one will be cashing in on it before those odds shorten.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    Sure would be good to see Sanders do well, though some of those idealistic pull promises e.g. 'free college, higher wages yet also higher social payments' could be dismissed, even the lower-middle hopeful classes as a hatrick of 'dreamlike fiscal policy'. Truly-free healthcare would likely also take generations to introduce.

    The intention of vast national infrastructure renewal, whist at the same time saving the planet from greenhouse gases (which many people now tire of and question statistically) again, as more fairytails that politicians so often promise.

    Analytical and vast statistical theory aside, what average Joe is looking for is an 'idol-branded-saviour-authoritarian-figure' to slow the empires recent (and perhaps inevitable) financial demise on the global stage. That may mean (rightly or wrongly) supporting fear-based push-factors such as tighter border control, military might, return to manufacturing based industry and even more wolfs on wall street.

    All the value (odds-wise) has left the building a long time ago (in this singles market), just an interesting waiting game now.

    Anything however is possible, as shown yesterday with the JC's part-success over in the UK, which surprised everyone.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    Bernie gone from 13/1 to 9/1 on a few sites in the past 48 hours.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    Plenty of movement on the markets 'every 48hrs' (today's shown below).

    dtx6.png

    If the two forerunners (HC & JB) can be dismissed as false starters. Perhaps it leaves room for (small) profits for anyone waging on both BS and yes, even on the controversial Trump, even at these now too-short odds, as 5th fav JB still denies any real ambition to run. Both promising not to be corporately bribed and to shake up the system. Alternatively a (very) wild card option could be Huckabee x81.

    Market odds are hard to dismiss, as x25 traders bonuses and mass group-consciousness are both real world indicators, as opposed to a few suited journalists-political-analysts, with their minds already made up or influenced from their paymasters.

    Plenty of soundbites again delivered (teleprompter free) last night to around 20,000 people. Offers to deport offenders, build a wall and stop the 'anchor babies' (folks from Mex whom cross the border just for one single day to secure us citizenship for their next generation).

    Controversial, but at the forefront of many of the 'low-information' voter's concerns. These voters are perhaps also the majority. After all (rightly or wrongly) GWB was voted in, a fellow who might have difficulty spelling mensa, never mind sitting their basic exam.

    Locally, DT mightn't be good thing, he also promised to reel in 'offshore corporate tax methodologies', still to operate freely within the EU, you need one foot reasonably planted and operational on it's soil.

    Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is JC as the UK's next PM. But likely Osborne already has this one.

    jcx8.png

    The current price of x8 would have left some folks rolling with laughter just a few weeks ago, all fun n' games.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    sanders' age will likely kill his chances


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    ianburke wrote: »
    sanders' age will likely kill his chances

    His age or his appearance?

    He's only a year older than Biden, who's 74. Even Clinton is 69. Who else is left?

    I think people will listen to his ideas rather than dismiss him as some old "Michael D. like" figure. Just from watching some of his speeches, he's more than capable of rallying the crowd and he'll hold his own in the debates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    i think a lot of the yanks go for appearance. biden looks strong and confident the other lad appears to be washed up and his hair is always all over the place. lost his cool earlier with a fox reporter so already showing signs that its getting to him. his price is moving in though. if he ever gets to 2/1 or thereabouts ill be happy to lay him.

    long way to go yet. i just hope clinton doesn't get in.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    Agree idolatry (appearance) is a major unaccounted feature here. Small neutral countries and even the UN are well suited to having good subtle mediators as leaders. But when you're up against bare-chested bear-wrestlers and new emerging trade pacts, a little more of high-fiving, kick-ass figure is required. Playing the sax, basketball or baseball a bonus.

    Perceive average Joe Doe is also tiring of the ex-lawyer administration types, handy with manipulative word plays.

    A pragmatic 'deal maker' of sorts could be a welcome change. The interesting thing about energetic, more creative, goal-orientated folks is that they can often produce win-win solutions. Not only for themselves but their opponents can walk out of negotiations with expectations surpassed, or re-directed through 'unexpected contextual offerings'. But flip-side, a small risk of burn-out.

    The all-powerful media may well decide the winner long-term, great entertainment in the meantime.
    Hard to see HC/JB able to offer anything interesting or new for anyone. Biden seems likable, if unmotivated.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,515 ✭✭✭ Dodge


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-is-in-a-self-reinforcing-funk/

    538 and Silver are great for political stuff.

    "Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop"


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 12,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Zascar


    Only seeing this now but like OP I picked out Bernie Sanders a good while back. I normally never gamble at all but I got Bernie at 22/1 just over 6 months ago. He's now down to about 7/1.

    In the early days people would say, "I like Bernie but he'll never win" - but right now some polls show he's tied with Hilary Nationally and has a greater chance in terms of electability. I still fear he'll lose by a tiny amount. The scary thing about that is that if this happens, many of his passionate supporters will become deflated and lose interest - which may actually give Trump the edge. Polls show Bernie beating Trump - but Trump could beat Hilary. I really fear a narrow miss for Bernie - and a President Trump.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    I do like Bernie but he'll never win, socialist idealist that look great on paper not suited to the environment. Today is currently only 4th fav to win
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

    He's facing a uphill battle against the 'influential' HC in particular, and also an image battle as the only non-christian in the race, and a somewhat 'elderly' profile, very often appears very un-photogenic.

    Rubio is his nemesis: young, traditional. Ideal subject for across-the-line media: tv, t-shirts, or postcards from gift shops.

    Donny may have upset many by telling the pope chap to 'wise the ___ up', but in his regular style may have pleased just as many.
    Especially so as 'Spotlight' gathers attention for the Best Picture nominee.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    Zascar wrote: »
    Only seeing this now but like OP I picked out Bernie Sanders a good while back. I normally never gamble at all but I got Bernie at 22/1 just over 6 months ago. He's now down to about 7/1.

    In the early days people would say, "I like Bernie but he'll never win" - but right now some polls show he's tied with Hilary Nationally and has a greater chance in terms of electability. I still fear he'll lose by a tiny amount. The scary thing about that is that if this happens, many of his passionate supporters will become deflated and lose interest - which may actually give Trump the edge. Polls show Bernie beating Trump - but Trump could beat Hilary. I really fear a narrow miss for Bernie - and a President Trump.


    He's currently at 20/1 which is insanely high given how close it is. There's a clear discrepancy between how the media is portraying the current situation vs. how it actually is. I've been following the election very closely since last summer and I'm confident he will win.

    Some things to consider.
    Bernie Sanders' wins to date (8): Maine, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, New Hampshire

    Hillary Clinton's wins to date (11): Louisiana, Virginia, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Nevada, *Iowa, *Massachusetts

    * Iowa and Massachusetts were both, in reality, virtual ties, though Clinton's narrow victories awarded her an extra delegate in Massachusetts and two delegates in Iowa. If you consider IA and MA ties, Clinton has won one more state than Senator Sanders.
    source

    Interesting sidenote, Kansas has predicted the democratic nominee with 100% accuracy over the past 50 years, while the majority of states which Clinton has won tend to be at the bottom of the list when it comes to predictions. See here for an infographic. Now I know this doesn't necessarily mean anything, but take what you will from it.

    As for the super delegate argument, that's null and void in my opinion. They will all go with the popular vote. Otherwise the party would fall apart.

    Bernie continues to outraise Clinton. After a decisive victory in Maine, endorsement by former Michigan senator Don Riegle and latest polls showing him only down by 5 there, I think he can squeeze a victory out of it and ride the momentum train from there.

    From here on out, the remaining states look much more favourable to Sanders, he survived Super Tuesday and did extremely well this weekend. What worries me most is the media coverage. "Bernie confirms he won't be dropping out after (narrow) defeat in X." - As if that was ever a possibility. The reality is he's only down 2-3% of awarded delegates so far. The race is much closer than the media would have you believe.

    It's time to go big - who's with me? :P
    jakI4yN.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Lexi Dry Rib


    If you were that confident (and don't need that cash out), the best plan would have been to shop around for a best pricex30x25 with Matchbook, also. x27 on Betdaq too...

    Bernie has some interesting anti-establishment ideas, but also does Trump. He's also up against two very big household names that he'd have to beat. Do think HC is very over-rated all the same, so anything is possible...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 877 Magnate


    If you were that confident (and don't need that cash out), the best plan would have been to shop around for a best pricex30x25 with Matchbook, also. x27 on Betdaq too...

    Bernie has some interesting anti-establishment ideas, but also does Trump. He's also up against two very big household names that he'd have to beat. Do think HC is very over-rated all the same, so anything is possible...

    Sanders vs. Trump is a blowout victory in every predicted matchup so far. You'll have every democrat and independent in the country coming out in droves just to vote against Trump. There's also the fact that Sanders is attracting a sizeable amount of Republican voters in the democratic primaries. (Either through write-ins or actual votes in open primaries.)

    However like Zascar, I could also see Trump winning if Sanders loses the nomination and democratic voters are feeling disheartened, especially if it's a close loss. In that scenario even I'd nearly vote for Trump, just to see the ensuing chaos - nearly.


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