Remember BRICs?

Dickerty

Brazil, Russia, India and China were the new high growth countries, after Ireland and the Eurozone (and most of the Established markets) fell into recession.

Well...

Brazil Debt cut to junk status - http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34205558
China market crash - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662092-china-sneezing-rest-world-rightly-nervous-causes-and-consequences-chinas
Russia's economy is in a hole - http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/russias-economy-is-in-a-pit-according-to-economists.html

Only India is holding firm - http://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-see-india-as-strongest-of-the-weak-1441827121

The lesson? Keep it under the mattress.

andrew

In fairness the Chinese economy is still growing at a pace far higher than any European economy, and there's no reason to think that Brazil, China, and India won't do well in the long term.

Also, an interesting fact: If China grew at 5 per cent annually, it would add an Indian-sized economy to its output in less than four years :O

Jim2007

andrew wrote: »

In fairness the Chinese economy is still growing at a pace far higher than any European economy, and there's no reason to think that Brazil, China, and India won't do well in the long term

In the case of China I think there is - demographics.

johnnyskeleton

Those four countires were grouped together long before the recession hit and it identified bot just high growth economies but ones with large manufacturing sectors and abundant natural resources. That general position hasnt changed.

andrew

The Term is from 2001. It originated with this paper by Goldman Sachs.

Sand

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Those four countires were grouped together long before the recession hit and it identified bot just high growth economies but ones with large manufacturing sectors and abundant natural resources. That general position hasnt changed.

It didn't help them in the past. There is more to economic prosperity than manufacturing and natural resources, and I don't think Brazil, Russia, India, or China have cracked it yet. The term "BRICs" is up there with the "Celtic Tiger" with people mistaking short term blips for long term trends. It is of course a vindication of free trade for the BRICs to catch up and converge with the west, but quite simply they are far more dependant on the west than the west is on them - the torch was passed to the BRICs to lead with the 2008 crisis, and the staggered, stumbled and ultimately failed. It will take more than GDP for the nature of that dependency to change. Suppliers are interchangeable. Consumers are fairly hard to replace.

realitykeeper

Dickerty wrote: »

Brazil, Russia, India and China were the new high growth countries, after Ireland and the Eurozone (and most of the Established markets) fell into recession.

Well...

Brazil Debt cut to junk status - http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34205558
China market crash - http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21662092-china-sneezing-rest-world-rightly-nervous-causes-and-consequences-chinas
Russia's economy is in a hole - http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/russias-economy-is-in-a-pit-according-to-economists.html

Only India is holding firm - http://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-see-india-as-strongest-of-the-weak-1441827121

The lesson? Keep it under the mattress.

All of your quotes are from western media or western rating agencies which are subject to western vested interests. For now, the west is winning the propaganda war but that will change when economic fundamentals become too strong to ignore. The fact of the matter is that the US, UK, EU and Japan are trying to solve their debt crisis by deflating their currencies through QE. China also wants to deflate its currency but crucially it does that by buying the Dollar, Euro, Sterling and YEN. It is particularly targeting the US dollar now because of speculation that interest rates will rise in the US.

In short, I think the next recession will turn the tables on the global economy. The western economies will become the new third world, thereby shunting desperately impoverished countries in Africa and Asia to second world status, countries like Mali and Turkmenistan. The BRICS will become the new economic superpowers.

BoJack Horseman

realitykeeper wrote: »

The western economies will become the new third world, thereby shunting desperately impoverished countries in Africa and Asia to second world status, countries like Mali and Turkmenistan. The BRICS will become the new economic superpowers.

What a waste of bandwidth!

any recommendations before Ireland becomes as poor as somalia/eritrea?

and what is your time frame on your prediction that Ireland will become one of the poorest nations on earth?

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

All of your quotes are from western media or western rating agencies which are subject to western vested interests. For now, the west is winning the propaganda war but that will change when economic fundamentals become too strong to ignore. The fact of the matter is that the US, UK, EU and Japan are trying to solve their debt crisis by deflating their currencies through QE. China also wants to deflate its currency but crucially it does that by buying the Dollar, Euro, Sterling and YEN. It is particularly targeting the US dollar now because of speculation that interest rates will rise in the US.

In short, I think the next recession will turn the tables on the global economy. The western economies will become the new third world, thereby shunting desperately impoverished countries in Africa and Asia to second world status, countries like Mali and Turkmenistan. The BRICS will become the new economic superpowers.

Other than your thoughts, do you have any hard facts, evidence or supporting documents to back up this idea?

Godge

Godge wrote: »

Other than your thoughts, do you have any hard facts, evidence or supporting documents to back up this idea?

I think they should be invited to include their thoughts in supporting the assertion. In the absence of other reasons/evidence, the logic behind their opinion could be sufficient to explain their idea.

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

Other than your thoughts, do you have any hard facts, evidence or supporting documents to back up this idea?

Prefixing the statement with "I think..." was done for three reasons. The first is modesty. I am not one to assume that everything I say will come to pass. That would be arrogant. It is possibly that I am entirely wrong and that everything is really nice and dandy ... it`s just that I don`t think so.

Secondly, I am mindful of the fact that one must be licensed in order to give financial advice in Ireland and I would not want my logical conclusions to be construed as financial advice and that is also the reason I abstain from the folly of using the kind of back up material you suggest, after all, facts can be interpreted any which way.

Thirdly, I very much value the whole thinking process. I think people don`t do enough of it.

Now don`t you feel foolish?

In summary; there is no logic behind it.

You only have an opinion, which you won't support with logic.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

In summary; there is no logic behind it.

That would be your dyslexia speaking. Read it again.

realitykeeper

realitykeeper wrote: »

That would be your dyslexia speaking. Read it again.

I suffer from no learning disabilities thank you very much, I'd advise you that it might be more civil to adjust your usage of that insinuation too. Bizarre enough.

Your post set out to explain why you would not offer any logic.

Unsurprisingly, it therefore contained absolutely no logic behind the opinion.

A fair chance to present evidence or reason was offered, it was turned down (shakily), a logical conclusion is therefore that there is no reason or evidence that would support the opinion.

StonyIron

Of the BRICs, Brazil probably had the long term potential to become a serious economic power.

Russia is rapidly turning towards military aggression, very right wing deep conservatism and that's causing economic isolationism and a brain drain. Other than oil/gas, it's never really had much going on.

China - the risk there is that if it fails to make political reforms and accommodate a growing expectation of democracy is some sort, there's a strong risk of serious instability. Effectively China is a dictatorship and I'm not convinced that it's population will put up with that indefinitely.

Both Russia and China have major issues with state control, total lack of transparency and corruption levels that would curl your hair!

China controls absolutely everything - there's no free media, everything online is blocked and filtered and that tendency is actually increasing under the current chairman, not liberalising.

Massive explosions in warehouses etc etc causing environmental chaos ... That comes down to lack of transparency, probably corruption etc

India - have you ever visited it?! The class divides in the caste system ensure it can't develop properly. I have quite honestly never been anywhere with more chaos. There are rich bits but there surrounded by some of the worst poverty I have seen anywhere and they're clearly spending nothing on infrastructure. The roads were so bad you just couldn't make it up. I've literally never seen anything like it anywhere else.

Yet despite all this, it's running a space programme and pursuing more nuclear weapons and so on ... It simply doesn't add up.

Brazil is the only one of the BRICs that I think is on a more stable growth path long term.

Also countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and quite a lot of other properly developing SE Asian countries are far more likely to become the big stable economies as time goes on. Most of them have far more stable systems underlying them than at least 3 of the BRICs

These acronyms, including "PIGS" just show how poorly the financial media's equivalent of tabloid journalists are at actually analysing anything.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

Your post set out to explain why you would not offer any logic.

It did? Where did I say that?

Deleted User wrote: »

I suffer from no learning disabilities ...

Are you sure? It might be worth getting yourself checked out.

realitykeeper

realitykeeper wrote: »

It did? Where did I say that?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=97028478&postcount=11

realitykeeper wrote: »

Are you sure? It might be worth getting yourself checked out.

Thank you for your juvenile concern.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=97028478&postcount=11

I clicked on the link but no sign of what you allege I said. Perhaps you could use the conventional quote facility on Boards to specify the precise quote.

realitykeeper

realitykeeper wrote: »

I clicked on the link but no sign of what you allege I said. Perhaps you could use the conventional quote facility on Boards to specify the precise quote.

The banality of it all.

Deleted User wrote: »

Your post set out to explain why you would not offer any logic.

realitykeeper wrote: »

Prefixing the statement with "I think..." was done for three reasons. The first is modesty. I am not one to assume that everything I say will come to pass. That would be arrogant. It is possibly that I am entirely wrong and that everything is really nice and dandy ... it`s just that I don`t think so.
Paraphrase - "I won't be offering the logic process in case I am wrong'

Secondly, I am mindful of the fact that one must be licensed in order to give financial advice in Ireland and I would not want my logical conclusions to be construed as financial advice and that is also the reason I abstain from the folly of using the kind of back up material you suggest, after all, facts can be interpreted any which way.
Paraphrase - "I won't be offering the logic process in case someone construes it as financial advice :pac:"

Thirdly, I very much value the whole thinking process. I think people don`t do enough of it.
Paraphrase - "I won't be offering the logic process because I feel you should figure it out yourself'

Now don`t you feel foolish?
yes

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

Prefixing the statement with "I think..." was done for three reasons. The first is modesty. I am not one to assume that everything I say will come to pass. That would be arrogant. It is possibly that I am entirely wrong and that everything is really nice and dandy ... it`s just that I don`t think so.

Secondly, I am mindful of the fact that one must be licensed in order to give financial advice in Ireland and I would not want my logical conclusions to be construed as financial advice and that is also the reason I abstain from the folly of using the kind of back up material you suggest, after all, facts can be interpreted any which way.

Thirdly, I very much value the whole thinking process. I think people don`t do enough of it.

Now don`t you feel foolish?

Only in that I tried to engage sensibly with the OP.

realitykeeper

Deleted User wrote: »

The banality of it all.

I give you zero for your incorrect paraphrasing and in case you had forgotten, this thread is supposed to be about the BRICS. Please refocus.

BoJack Horseman

When are you going to illuminate us as to when Ireland will be as poor as any given 3rd world country?

are we talking days..?
give us a time frame

realitykeeper

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

When are you going to illuminate us as to when Ireland will be as poor as any given 3rd world country?

are we talking days..?
give us a time frame

That would be when the next recession comes. When that will be is anyone's guess. I would speculate it will be before the end of 2018. I would be surprised if it took longer than that and of course it could be much sooner.

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

That would be when the next recession comes. When that will be is anyone's guess. I would speculate it will be before the end of 2018. I would be surprised if it took longer than that and of course it could be much sooner.

Ireland will be as poor as Botswana by 2018?

Either you are certifiable or an economic genius?

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

Ireland will be as poor as Botswana by 2018?

Either you are certifiable or an economic genius?

Obviously, when a recession hits it takes a little time to really filter through to the average person. That said, I do believe the next recession will be sudden and severe. The problem is that Irish people and most first worlders are used to a certain quality of life and a social welfare safety net if they fall on difficult times. People here will react very badly to a rapid and severe fall in their living standards. Consequently, it is not so much the recession as peoples reaction to it that will set Ireland and most first world countries on the path to third world status.