Thursday 20/08

hawkhead

Top Offer 14/1 (betfair) 5-30 Lingfield tomorrow catches the eye. He's been running well enough of late and is now down to a mark 5lb lower than the one he was successful off last year. Another plus is that his trainer who had been on the cold list has in the past week or so had a winner and two seconds from his only three runners

gazza1

There are a few that take my fancy tomorrow at decent odds and ive had 1pt ew on all.

Stratford 5.15 MOUNT VESUVIUS 10/1
C&D winner off a mark of 97 and in here off 87.

Hamilton 5.40 TAGTALE 20/1
C&D winner last Aug. Off a mark of 52 and down to 48 for tomorrow

Hamilton 7.10 GENIE MAC 25/1
Winner of the race last year off a 4lb higher mark

Killarney 8.20 CANNY TOM 25/1 B365
This horse is as low as 10/1 with pp jamie codd onboard and is related to KANGAROO COURT who won both hurdles and chases and with the fav so short ive had to have a nibble.

Gl with your bets

shmeee

Hamilton 6.40
El Beau e/w @ 10/1

Surprised at the price that El Beau is available at. Runs on the flat for the first time this season after having being sent over hurdles, and recording a mark of 127, with 2 wins and 3 seconds from his 5 runs. Well earned rest since.

Runs tomorrow off 76 with the jockey claiming 3. Won off a mark of 76 over 1m and since then has been competitive and in the mix (not beaten more than 1 & 3/4L's) in all runs bar last run on that flat last October at York.

Trip should be no problem tomorrow and I find it hard to see him not placing if fresh, has ran before after a 254 day lay off to finish just under 2L's back in 3rd, 164 days since last run so hopefully be in same position. Small money about for him this evening with a few firms.

jimjamcos

2.30: EASTON ANGEL (9/2 currently, hopefully get 5/1 in morning) - Lumiere could be anything given how she sluiced up lto but form behind her is suspect so far (1 winner from race), which cannot be said about Easton Angel. Unlike the fav, she's proven on soft, put it up to the Yank monster Acapulco at Ascot with subsequent winner and rival tomorrow Besharah well beaten over 2l behind while she was extremely unlucky in running nto in a race won by Queen Mary winner Illuminate. The fav may be special but given ground and prices it's worth backing Dodds animal against her to find out.

3.40: PLEASCACH (7/1) - The fav won in good style lto but I think it was a Smullen masterclass ala Snow Sky at Ascot and I'm not sure she's quite as good as she looked that day so happy to pass her over. Curvy obviously has to be respected having beaten Pleascach comfortably enough at Ascot but I think Bolgers horse was found out on proper good-firm that day. Her Irish runs before that when winning the Guineas and hacking up on yielding-soft at Navan in particular suggested she's best on Irish-type ground and I'm happy enough to ignore her tame Pretty Polly effort given it was only 10days after a tough race on firm ground at Ascot. Even if underperfoming that day, that was a hot race with only Grp1 winners ahead of her in Diamondsandrubies, Legatissimo, Ribbons, Secret Gesture (well should be one in America). Pleascach is the one I think can improve for the break since and conditions and 7/1 seems value to me.

BET: Singles & Each-Way Double

Gregk961

Pleascach would but my idea of the winner but I just can't be convinced with any of the fillies in the race. The favourite especially, though improving improving, is a horrible price and will surely be closer to 5-1 by off time.

Been looking at the French fillies last two runs and there is lots to like visually and on paper for tomorrow. Not least the fact that she could progress past all of these on just her 5th start. 9-1 isn't all I was hoping to get but might have a minimum bet and see how it pans out.

votecounts

This is for you 14:10 Chepstow @ 11/8

HarshOstrich

Kellini e/w in this

Johner

Curvy at 7/1 looks too big to me, have had a few quid on.

Francie Barrett

Bit surprised to see Anquetta completely without friends in the 3:30 at Stratford. This one has seen sucess over course and distance and is nicely down in the weights. A nice e/w shot at 16/1.

Pleascach for me.

HarshOstrich

Curvy is a great e/w price

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

Pleascach for me.

Happy with that

Johner

Well done Pleascach backers! Pretty unsatisfactory race given how it was run but a deserved success.

gazza1

Well done with pleascach guys

HarshOstrich

If it was a true run race I couldn't see pleascach winning, but it wasn't so well done backers

Is Tony Martin's worth a flutter in the next do ye think?


Ive gone against it and backed Melodious at 25-1 ew

confused smu

One of the staff in in the local bookies said a fella put 200 euro on bright approach in the 4.20 at 12/1, not sure was it each bet or to win... just passing it on, it might be nothing. On another note i fancy Todd in the 7pm race and Irish raider Krissys Kisses in the 6.40. Goodluck

Francie Barrett

TheTorment wrote: »

Is Tony Martin's worth a flutter in the next do ye think?


Ive gone against it and backed Melodious at 25-1 ew

A bit unlucky, it got shunted about in the last furlong.

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

Is Tony Martin's worth a flutter in the next do ye think?


Ive gone against it and backed Melodious at 25-1 ew

Money for it from 40's into 16's. Thought she was left alot to do but came home at the finish to finish 5th.
Shes gone into the tracker anyway.

HarshOstrich

Low grade handicaps are a jk
Anything can win , usually you can go back and look at it's price and see that money came for the winner, avoiding these races from now on

Back Flynn's Admiral Barton yesterday and just seen he is out today in Stratford again. Small punt at 8's

TheTorment

TheTorment wrote: »

Back Flynn's Admiral Barton yesterday and just seen he is out today in Stratford again. Small punt at 8's

Thats twice hes cost me now

shmeee

hawkhead wrote: »

Top Offer 14/1 (betfair) 5-30 Lingfield tomorrow catches the eye. He's been running well enough of late and is now down to a mark 5lb lower than the one he was successful off last year. Another plus is that his trainer who had been on the cold list has in the past week or so had a winner and two seconds from his only three runners

:eek:

4/1 fav now, pure cleaned.

Best of luck.

madmoose

Looking at max dynamite tomorrow to see if he can win that stayers at york, the galway hurdle he was flying late on 2nd like he was on the flat in the northumberland plate behind quest for more and he had a bad draw that day. 14/1 best at the moment i might take a chance.

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

:eek:

4/1 fav now, pure cleaned.

Best of luck.

WTF

That was pure awful, some money down and ran like that. Very very strange.

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

WTF

That was pure awful, some money down and ran like that. Very very strange.

Weird....I jumped on at 6's.

Never with it

hawkhead

Sorry about that lads. When all that money came I thought today was definitely the day.

Ran a shocker

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Looking at max dynamite tomorrow to see if he can win that stayers at york, the galway hurdle he was flying late on 2nd like he was on the flat in the northumberland plate behind quest for more and he had a bad draw that day. 14/1 best at the moment i might take a chance.

Also to this he was entered in the ebor and was easy getting into the race but connections trying him in a group race hmm

Gringo180

Have been told Aryizad is out to win tonight in the 7.10 @ Hamilton tonight. 7s at the minute.

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

Have been told Aryizad is out to win tonight in the 7.10 @ Hamilton tonight. 7s at the minute.

Bet 365 showing 8's from 25's

sdoc13

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Low grade handicaps are a jk
Anything can win , usually you can go back and look at it's price and see that money came for the winner, avoiding these races from now on

Couldnt disagree more. My bread and butter and my most profitable races by far.

Gringo180

TheTorment wrote: »

Bet 365 showing 8's from 25's

Sorry lads was only passing info on. Never nearer 5th. Will make up for that.

Gringo no need apologise. Money was down....just no one told the horse

HarshOstrich

sdoc13 wrote: »

Couldnt disagree more. My bread and butter and my most profitable races by far.

These are the races being targeted by trainers and owners to land touches. Usually there full of horses that are a stone under there last winning mark.or horses been off for a long time.
Cahala dancer won at Chepstow today @ 12/1 and money came late for him, but you never could have picked him with 1 run in 3 years.

sdoc13

HarshOstrich wrote: »

These are the races being targeted by trainers and owners to land touches. Usually there full of horses that are a stone under there last winning mark.or horses been off for a long time.
Cahala dancer won at Chepstow today @ 12/1 and money came late for him, but you never could have picked him with 1 run in 3 years.

Usually I look for horses that are at least 5lbs below there last winning mark, that have shown some sign of improvement without placing in a recent run, and that have at least distance form but preferably C and D form.

Then if I feel they are overpriced I have a bet.

No matter what grade race if you are getting value you will be in profit long term.

These races seem to suit me but if you feel yo have an edge in a particular type of races stick more to those.

jimjamcos

jimjamcos wrote: »

2.30: EASTON ANGEL (9/2 currently, hopefully get 5/1 in morning) - Lumiere could be anything given how she sluiced up lto but form behind her is suspect so far (1 winner from race), which cannot be said about Easton Angel. Unlike the fav, she's proven on soft, put it up to the Yank monster Acapulco at Ascot with subsequent winner and rival tomorrow Besharah well beaten over 2l behind while she was extremely unlucky in running nto in a race won by Queen Mary winner Illuminate. The fav may be special but given ground and prices it's worth backing Dodds animal against her to find out.

3.40: PLEASCACH (7/1) - The fav won in good style lto but I think it was a Smullen masterclass ala Snow Sky at Ascot and I'm not sure she's quite as good as she looked that day so happy to pass her over. Curvy obviously has to be respected having beaten Pleascach comfortably enough at Ascot but I think Bolgers horse was found out on proper good-firm that day. Her Irish runs before that when winning the Guineas and hacking up on yielding-soft at Navan in particular suggested she's best on Irish-type ground and I'm happy enough to ignore her tame Pretty Polly effort given it was only 10days after a tough race on firm ground at Ascot. Even if underperfoming that day, that was a hot race with only Grp1 winners ahead of her in Diamondsandrubies, Legatissimo, Ribbons, Secret Gesture (well should be one in America). Pleascach is the one I think can improve for the break since and conditions and 7/1 seems value to me.

BET: Singles & Each-Way Double

Happy enough with that! That Pretty Polly was some edition! Disappointed in Easton Angel and wouldn't be touching Acapulco now with a bargepole given ground.

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Looking at max dynamite tomorrow to see if he can win that stayers at york, the galway hurdle he was flying late on 2nd like he was on the flat in the northumberland plate behind quest for more and he had a bad draw that day. 14/1 best at the moment i might take a chance.

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