Does the largest party have to end up in government.

Hollister11

Does the largest party have to end up in government ?

For example

We know in the last election Fine Gael and Labour the two largest parties had 55.5% of the seat together, so they formed the government.

Lets say that in the next election Fine Gael get 40%, but Fianna Fail get 26% and Sinn Fein get 25%. Could they form a government, or would Fine Gael have to be in government as the largest party ?

Also what would happen if 4 parties get exactly 25% each. And Party A & B got together, and party C & D got together. Both coalitions have 50% each. What happens here

*This is just for my general knowledge.

SeantheMan

Hollister11 wrote: »

Does the largest party have to end up in government ?

For example

We know in the last election Fine Gael and Labour the two largest parties had 55.5% of the seat together, so they formed the government.

Lets say that in the next election Fine Gael get 40%, but Fianna Fail get 26% and Sinn Fein get 25%. Could they form a government, or would Fine Gael have to be in government as the largest party ?

Also what would happen if 4 parties get exactly 25% each. And Party A & B got together, and party C & D got together. Both coalitions have 50% each. What happens here

*This is just for my general knowledge.

No, I believe you are correct in that

"but Fianna Fail get 26% and Sinn Fein get 25%. Could they form a government". This is the case as far as I know

With 166 seats you can't get 25%, but if it was 50 / 50 or whatever, I honestly don't know how it would be resolved. They would probably have negotiate with other parties until a majority is formed somehow.
There are always independents who can flip flop

Duffy the Vampire Slayer

Fianna Fail were the largest party in 1948 but were not in government.

ezra_pound

The dail appoints the taoiseach by a vote, who appoints the government ministers. So once there's enough support from within the dail from any TDs for a particular government.

Riskymove

Duffy the Vampire Slayer wrote: »

Fianna Fail were the largest party in 1948 but were not in government.

Don't have to go back that far

The "Rainbow Coalition" of FG, Labour and Democratic Left went into Government in 1994 despite FF being the largest Party by 20 odd seats

FF Labour had been in Govt since the elections but Labour left in 1994 and formed a new Government

With 166 seats you can't get 25%, but if it was 50 / 50 or whatever, I honestly don't know how it would be resolved. They would probably have negotiate with other parties until a majority is formed somehow.
There are always independents who can flip flop

at the next election the number of TDs reduces to 158

In general votes the 50/50 is avoided due to the Ceann Comhairle

if there is a draw he generally then votes in support of the Government



if a Government cannot be formed, you have a hung Dail and a new election

Quin_Dub

ezra_pound wrote: »

The dail appoints the taoiseach by a vote, who appoints the government ministers. So once there's enough support from within the dail from any TDs for a particular government.

And this is where the back-room deals come in..

Bertie made all the little side deals with Jackie Healy Rae et al to get their support for his minority government.

They were not in coalition , but they agreed, on receipt of bribes incentives to not vote against the government.. They either voted with them or abstained , either way giving the government a majority in votes..

We are likely to see some similar activities this time round.

I reckon that FG/LAB will be about 10/12 seats short of majority (FG on about 55, Labour with about 10 seats) so they'll start to try to make deals with the various independents/ small party groups.

FG/LAB will be bigger than FF/SF ( I see FF on ~30 and SF on 18-20) combined but neither will have a majority..

So the Indys will be king-makers - Unless FF decide to give their support to FG as was discussed in the media over the week-end

FreudianSlippers

Genuine question: Do Labour's current polling figures support a secure 10 seats at present? I didn't think they did.

Quin_Dub

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Genuine question: Do Labour's current polling figures support a secure 10 seats at present? I didn't think they did.

6-8% is about 10 seats (7% of 158 is actually 11 seats) depending on the nature of the election pact being discussed with FG they might do a bit better...

fly_agaric

Quin_Dub wrote: »

6-8% is about 10 seats (7% of 158 is actually 11 seats) depending on the nature of the election pact being discussed with FG they might do a bit better...

I don't know. Would a pact be of any benefit to labour? FG will have a few candidates in some constituencies so presume the FG core voter will put FG 1 2 3 or whatever and the preference will never get to a labour candidate (if there is one even running!). Perhaps running as FGs handmaids with formal election pacts etc might not be seen in a good light by their voters either (I was one!).

Quin_Dub

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't know. Would a pact be of any benefit to labour? FG will have a few candidates in some constituencies so presume the FG core voter will put FG 1 2 3 or whatever and the preference will never get to a labour candidate (if there is one even running!). Perhaps running as FGs handmaids with formal election pacts etc might not be seen in a good light by their voters either (I was one!).

It all depends..

I doubt that FG will be running extra candidates in areas that they don't have seats - e.g. If they have 2 sitting TD's in a 4 seater they'll only run 2 candidates etc.

This is where Labour might get help..

If you have a 4 seater that currently has 2 FG , 1 Lab and A.N. Other.. An election pact means that FG won't run another body against Labour and they'll agree to push the transfer side..

This will be about holding what they have , not winning new seats...

Brussels Sprout

The current danish government is an example of this OP. The PM is from a party who came third in the election. They've formed a minority government with parties who finished below them (I believe the 2nd placed party (who are right wing nationalists) supports the government on a vote by vote basis)

Godge

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't know. Would a pact be of any benefit to labour? FG will have a few candidates in some constituencies so presume the FG core voter will put FG 1 2 3 or whatever and the preference will never get to a labour candidate (if there is one even running!). Perhaps running as FGs handmaids with formal election pacts etc might not be seen in a good light by their voters either (I was one!).

It will all come down to the final seat in a number of constituencies.

Take my own one, Dublin West, usually 2 seats for the Mulhuddart end (Coppinger and Donnelly next time out it looks like) and 2 seats for the Castleknock end (Vardakar with a surplus and ?).

A pact could see Joan Burton take the last seat ahead of Chambers (FF), McGuinness (Ind), Hall (SD) or the second SP candidate as she is likely to be ahead of the second FG candidate. On the other hand, if she was behind a second FG candidate, s/he might get in on her votes.

A pact would be good for the government in Dublin West, opening up the possibility of two seats. Of course, if their vote was to drop, no amount of pacts would help them.

Sam Russell

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Genuine question: Do Labour's current polling figures support a secure 10 seats at present? I didn't think they did.

Polling numbers are based on asking 1,000 voters their intentions. They then ignore the undecideds and produce figures from that. This gives an accuracy (if you can call it that) of + or - 3% or so, but whether these voters will or will not actually vote is not part of the results.

So in a poll, undecideds are ignored, but in elections it is the non-voter that is ignored. Not the same people at all.

Again, the pollsters are only interested in first preferences, but in an actual election, it is the transfers - sometimes very far down - that actually determines the last seat.

Also, party loyalty is one thing, but personalities sometimes over-ride this.

Parties like SF are less transfer friendly than Labour. (Historically)

So, if Labour do well, they might get 15 seats, and badly maybe not any.

Balf

Hollister11 wrote: »

Does the largest party have to end up in government ?

So far as I know, the Constitution makes no reference to political parties at all. Theoretically, the Dail could consist of 166 independents, and the Taoiseach would just be someone able to get the votes of most of them.

recedite

Balf wrote: »

So far as I know, the Constitution makes no reference to political parties at all.

Correct. And there is no "cabinet" in it either.
All the elected Dail TD's vote for ministers to run the departments of the state. These ministers are collectively called the government.

In practice, political parties form and they "whip" their TD's into voting a particular way. Once a group have organised the largest vote in the Dail, they divvy out the best jobs and vote in their own people as ministers (with the Taoiseach's job obviously being the best job of all) The newly appointed ministers then concentrate power further into a select group which they have taken to calling the cabinet.
From then on, this small group controls both the Dail and the govt. via the party whip and/or by bribing a few independents.
And so the legislature (Dail) is not really separate from the executive (govt) as it should be in a democratic republic.
For example, in the USA the President is the executive arm of the state, but the US Congress (House of Representatives/& Senate) is separately elected and may decide not to fund his projects if they don't agree with them.