El Nino effects in Europe 2015

The12thMan

El Nino expected to be among top 3 strongest on record, NOAA says

http://mashable.com/2015/08/13/el-nino-strongest-on-record/

During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the Ireland/UK was exceptionally cold.

But there are many other variables which affect Europe’s climate and there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters.

discuss....

maquiladora

No real observed impact in this part of the world.

This guy compared ENSO to CET records and found no real connection:
https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/no-real-relationship-with-enso-cet/

These are the areas where impacts have been demonstrably observed.

snowstreams

Interesting to see that it will warm up most of Canada and the east coast of the US.
This could mean we actually have a less stormy winter, if i remember correctly the reason we had such strong storms of the last few winters was because of the extreme cold in the eastern US.

Hooter23

Extreme Microburst Blast in Arizona! 

This is all part of the start of El Nino in the West and it will spread east with some wild weather this winter

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/1983-extreme-microburst-blast-in-arizona-you-gotta-see-this-in-tucson?groupid=37

Elmer Blooker

very strong El Nino 1997-98 = Feb 1998 mildest February on record in Ireland.

Jpmarn

I think that the El Niño situation is having a negative effect to the Irish summer weather this year. It had affected the weather here in the past. We had a poor summer in 1998.

Oneiric 3

The12thMan wrote: »

During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the Ireland/UK was exceptionally cold.

Yet La Nina was in full force when we experienced one of the coldest December's on record back in 2010.

The claim that El Nino is more likely to produce colder winters across NW Europe is nothing more than tabloid tosh. We've only to look back to other exceptionally cold winters (or winter months) , such as 1916-17, 46-47, 62-63, 78-79, 85, 86, 2000 and so on to see that a positive Nino state had little overall bearing, as all of these occurred when the Nino index was either neutral or negative.

Summertime8989

According to the Met office-" As for Europe and the UK, the consequences of El Nino are much less clear. Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean.
During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK was exceptionally cold. But there are many other variables which affect Europe’s climate and there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters. And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild."

Upon looking at the 2006/7 el nino it was the joint weakest along with 1982/3. IMO very little is known but I feel the stronger the El Nino the more likely it is to affect us. It's bound to have knock on effects on some kind if the global weather pattern shifts. Let's hope the met office theory is correct and we have Colder, Drier Winter. Interesting times

Summertime8989

Sadly I can't edit my post. 82/83 was one of the strongest not weakest

sryanbruen

El Nino this year has given us a cold (not exceptionally) Winter alright AND a cold Summer!

sryanbruen

Another reason for cold Winter is sudden stratospheric warming which I think we all remember that happened in January 2013

sryanbruen

Plus in 2010, the jet stream was far too south for any move of the Atlantic which gives us our mild and wet climate

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Yet La Nina was in full force when we experienced one of the coldest December's on record back in 2010.

The claim that El Nino is more likely to produce colder winters across NW Europe is nothing more than tabloid tosh. We've only to look back to other exceptionally cold winters (or winter months) , such as 1916-17, 46-47, 62-63, 78-79, 85, 86, 2000 and so on to see that a positive Nino state had little overall bearing, as all of these occurred when the Nino index was either neutral or negative.

Just to fix that, it was the COLDEST DECEMBER on record in Ireland in 2010, NOT one of them. I'm not being smart or anything, I'm just stating the true fact.

Gonzo

lets hope we get a cold winter, it's been 5 winters since we've seen snowfall worth a damn in this country. (excluding Northern Ireland and high ground)

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

lets hope we get a cold winter, it's been 5 winters since we've seen snowfall worth a damn in this country. (excluding Northern Ireland and high ground)

Here are the only dates Grange has seen snowfall since December 2010

Dec 13 2011
Dec 16 2011 - widespread morning lying snow
Jan 22 2013
Feb 23 2013
Feb 24 2013
Mar 11 2013
Mar 19 2013
Mar 20 2013
Mar 26 2013
Mar 27 2013
Feb 1 2014
Jan 13 2015
Mar 1 2015

2012 had an unusual absence of snowfall

Summertime8989

Gonzo wrote: »

lets hope we get a cold winter, it's been 5 winters since we've seen snowfall worth a damn in this country. (excluding Northern Ireland and high ground)

Not just northern Ireland. Donegal has faired well. Monaghan/Cavan got 10 inches at least some parts did last Winter and I think Parts of the West done well before the "Storm" Rachael. Just the East/South that's been poor.

sryanbruen

Summertime8989 wrote: »

Not just northern Ireland. Donegal has faired well. Monaghan/Cavan got 10 inches at least some parts did last Winter and I think Parts of the West done well before the "Storm" Rachael. Just the East/South that's been poor.

Yeah I'm in the east and see the only days since 2010 in which I recorded at least 2cm of snowfall

Darwin

UK Metoffice has published the ensemble-mean maps for the next six months here. Looks like parts of the North Atlantic SSTs are well below average, not sure what that might translate to in terms of our winter weather.

sryanbruen

If the Atlantic Ocean will have much colder than normal temperatures - like this year so far, we could be in for a severely cold Winter! It secondly depends on if the jet stream will sink further southwards like 2010.

Hooter23

Forecasters warn this winter's El Nino could be historically strong...

WASHINGTON –  The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.

But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.

"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."

Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino (ehl NEEN'-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.

In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.

It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.

California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that's unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.

Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.

NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.

This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos after the late movie action hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.

Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.

El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/08/14/forecasters-warn-this-winter-el-nino-could-be-historically-strong/

Joe Bastardi video - http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-15-2015

Oneiric 3

Compared Winter temp anomalies at Valentia Island and the Nino index and nothing of particular interest shows up regarding significant correlation.



What this chart shows is that cold winters at Valentia are as equally likely to occur regardless of the Nino state. Of some interest is that exceptional mild winters appear to be less likely to occur during an El Nino but given that the sample rate of positive Ninos during winter is smaller than others (I.E, are less frequent) it is hard to say if there is any direct connection.


Some stats based on the above data:

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.111570863 R Square 0.012448058 Adjusted R Square 0.000256058 Standard Error 0.895490349 Observations 83



Coefficients: 0.035373317




All data from KNMI

Summertime8989

The stronger the El nino the more likely it is to have an impact if any on our shores. A weak El Nino most likely wouldn't. This is billed to a "big one" so lets see

hatrickpatrick

Ah lads, it's too feckin' early for winter ramping. Go back to sleep.

Yisser like that one lad at a session who always wakes up too early and wants to start drinking again while everyone else is either still asleep or hanging balls. I know, because I'm almost always that lad.

ken76

Hi sorry if this is a stupid question.I am only a casual viewer of the weather forum,but maybe some of you guys can answer this.

I know well I think El Nino is in the Pacific and brings heavy rain etc to west cost of America.What I'm wondering is does it effect Irish weather in any way? If so in what sense? Feel free to close thread if this is nonsense.

sword1

It effects our weather greatly, the sea temperature is far lower than normal, in some areas they are saying the lowest in 18 years, 2010 was the last el nino and it was a weaker one, it made for a very cold winter. I would expect a colder one than that, that is just an uneducated opinion, there is other changes to the weather due to storms taking a different track accross the Atlantic etc but I don't understand it well enough to explain, I am sure another member will explain this better

ken76

That's what i was hoping for basically a colder winter , with snow

Lumi

Answered in this thread OP - posts moved there/here

Pat Dunne

Hooter23 wrote: »

Forecasters warn this winter's El Nino could be historically strong...



http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/08/14/forecasters-warn-this-winter-el-nino-could-be-historically-strong/

Joe Bastardi video - http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-15-2015

As soon as I saw that this article was atributed to Foxnews, it lost all credibility!

Hooter23

Pat Dunne wrote: »

As soon as I saw that this article was atributed to Foxnews, it lost all credibility!

Its no secret that this years el nino might be the strongest in decades just a quick google on it will tell you this from much more reliable sources and forecasters...

sryanbruen

snowstreams wrote: »

Interesting to see that it will warm up most of Canada and the east coast of the US.
This could mean we actually have a less stormy winter, if i remember correctly the reason we had such strong storms of the last few winters was because of the extreme cold in the eastern US.

"LESS STORMY" - :pac::pac: I wish... This Winter so far has been the epitome of ****! As soon as they mention naming storms, a thousand storms start belting right at us.. Coincidentally as soon as somebody in 2012 mentioned "Hosepipe ban" in the UK and then in April, the weather turned around dramatically to a prolonged period of blocked patterns with wet and mostly cool weather. Be careful about what we say LOL . Anybody think the El Nino will cause February to be as mild as 1998 when a strong El Nino also took place?

saltsun

sryanbruen wrote: »

Anybody think the El Nino will cause February to be as mild as 1998 when a strong El Nino also took place?

I can't place the year, but I remember one February when it was 18 or 19 degrees, I was working outside and it was warm even in a tshirt. (Five?)Six nations was on around the same time. Think was 1998 the year?