Friday 07/08

sdoc13

After a disaster of a last few days redemption may be around the corner. A good few on here myself included had Golden Shoe lined up for a nice bet in Galway. Runs tomorrow over 7f in the 19 45 in Tipp, i did not think there would be 20/1 available. Max Bet.

PEACEBROTHER

sdoc13 wrote: »

After a disaster of a last few days redemption may be around the corner. A good few on here myself included had Golden Shoe lined up for a nice bet in Galway. Runs tomorrow over 7f in the 19 45 in Tipp, i did not think there would be 20/1 available. Max Bet.

Usually back few off these tips every day but I'm putting total confidence in your selection tomorrow as it's not like you to go few days without a winner
I won't be checking this thread again till after the race tomorrow as to keep me from temptation😀
Let's hope golden shoe can challenge

And thanks again for selections everyday !!

shmeee

Is Thousand Stars a massive penalty kick tomorrow in Tipp @ 5/6?

Was odds against earlier.

Running off 68 on the flat.

sdoc13

I have added An Saighduir in the 18 05 Tipp. Down from a high mark of 107 to a mark of 92 tomorrow, Has won over C and D off 91. Soft conditions ideal and there is a significant draw to high numbers over 5f at tipp particularly on soft ground. 14/1 seems big 2 pts win

Also agree with Francie that smoker could be well treated in the last at Lingfield. Have had 1 pt win at 14/1

Tubberadora

sdoc13 wrote: »

After a disaster of a last few days redemption may be around the corner. A good few on here myself included had Golden Shoe lined up for a nice bet in Galway. Runs tomorrow over 7f in the 19 45 in Tipp, i did not think there would be 20/1 available. Max Bet.

What is this based on. No win in 2.5 years, ok down to a very low mark but hasnt been showing anything at all imo. Not questioning just like to see your reasoning.

PM me nudes

The well regarded Port Douglas runs tomorrow in the Listed race at Tipp. Beaten by a good one of Bolgers lto, currently 7/4, would be surprised if it didn't go off near odds on

NeverWaining

sdoc13 wrote: »

After a disaster of a last few days redemption may be around the corner. A good few on here myself included had Golden Shoe lined up for a nice bet in Galway. Runs tomorrow over 7f in the 19 45 in Tipp, i did not think there would be 20/1 available. Max Bet.

Tubberadora wrote: »

What is this based on. No win in 2.5 years, ok down to a very low mark but hasnt been showing anything at all imo. Not questioning just like to see your reasoning.

I'd predict he thought the horse was lined up for a tilt at Galway (previous festival winner) and that didn't go right so he's here to make amends.

First time blinkers might bring out some improvement but my worry would be that this will be the 51st time the trainer has tried first time blinkers and he has yet to produce a winner from them. In fact he only has a dismal two places to show. Trainers are usually creatures of habit.
There will always be doubts about a 20/1 shot of course.

I'd prefer An Saighdiur in the 6:05 myself. I'm sure Slattery will have eyes on Ayr again and he could do with a couple of pounds to get in the Gold Cup as apposed to the consolation. Won this race twice before and the ground will suit. Trainers local track and he has a good record here. You'd like to see a bit more promise from him in his last two runs, though he had a terrible position at Galway.
He's no penalty kick but a fair price.

Francie Barrett

Found 6.50 in one of my online accounts today, God loves a trier :pac:

Fourfold Accumulator (x1)
1 . Smoker (17:10 Lingfield)
2 . Golden Shoe (19:45 Tipperary)
3 . Jembatt (20:15 Tipperary)
4 . Coto (18:05 Tipperary)
1 line at €0.50
Total stake for this bet: €0.50
Potential return: €29452.50

sdoc13

Tubberadora wrote: »

What is this based on. No win in 2.5 years, ok down to a very low mark but hasnt been showing anything at all imo. Not questioning just like to see your reasoning.

Hasnt ran over 7f yet this year which is what I have been waiting for. Soft ground suits. Drawn well. Some very good efforts last year off marks in the mid 70s. Down to a low mark of 51 and getting 20/1 to boot. I priced it at 12s as had some firms last night. All combined I think its a cracking value bet. I could be miles wrong but thats racing all about opinions.

magicmoves

Jembatt and Coto owes me a few quid:)

HarshOstrich

Musselburgh 2.30
Human nature 2/1

A colt taking on 3 fillys, I think he has a great chance haveing been just touched off by tutu nguru last time, that horse finished 2nd last time in a competive 20 runner handicap beating 1 of the other runners in the race today very easily, dropping down from 6f to 5f should be in his favour as he has shown speed in all his races so far, the favourite plagiarism is the danger but I think human natures form is far stronger.
Max bet for me

Tubberadora

sdoc13 wrote: »

Hasnt ran over 7f yet this year which is what I have been waiting for. Soft ground suits. Drawn well. Some very good efforts last year off marks in the mid 70s. Down to a low mark of 51 and getting 20/1 to boot. I priced it at 12s as had some firms last night. All combined I think its a cracking value bet. I could be miles wrong but thats racing all about opinions.

I can see your logic but it wouldn't be a max bet. Its the kind of one id be having a bet on but in a last chance saloon type of way.

Gregk961

Tubberadora wrote: »

I can see your logic but it wouldn't be a max bet. Its the kind of one id be having a bet on but in a last chance saloon type of way.

If you reckon a horse is overpriced by 8 points it would usually be a max bet surely. Whether it actually is overpriced or not is moot, you have to take opportunities like that.

idnkph

Tubberadora wrote: »

What is this based on. No win in 2.5 years, ok down to a very low mark but hasnt been showing anything at all imo. Not questioning just like to see your reasoning.

Sdoc knows his sh1t. Has proven it time and time again with big priced winners working of his logic.
We all have our little ways of working things out.
Only for sdoc and a few others here I'd be alot poorer than I am.
What ever the logic. It works

sword1

Golden shoe was 20/1 on paddy power last night,11/1 now

Tubberadora

Gregk961 wrote: »

If you reckon a horse is overpriced by 8 points it would usually be a max bet surely. Whether it actually is overpriced or not is moot, you have to take opportunities like that.

true that its worth a bet when 8pts bigger but surely max bets on a horse you believe has an 8% chance of winning is dodgy.
I follow sdocs posts and true he has picked some winners. Its the logic of a max bet on this is my point.

byronbay2

sword1 wrote: »

Golden shoe was 20/1 on paddy power last night,11/1 now

Would be a substantial Rule 4 on that 20/1 - two n/r this morning, one 6/1, the other 7/1 approx.

kalinisi

Dikta Del Mar, had a decent bet at 5s, won on soft in france, gets plenty of weight and can see her going mighty close here. (NAP)

Have backed Pontrificate (NB) @ 12s on that ground, although i fear plenty especially cash or casualty. going be a rule 4 on my 12s though, i've been waiting a while to back this fella on soft and have gone in.

Play the game @ 8/1 purely on the basis he's by lawman and should go through the ground, fav will be very hard to beat and it would be fair the say the obrien team are in a bit of form, small bet.

Jembatt, the bastard, just because if he won id be hoping so have had to have a small win bet just in case

Sirtoyou

Tubberadora wrote: »

true that its worth a bet when 8pts bigger but surely max bets on a horse you believe has an 8% chance of winning is dodgy.
I follow sdocs posts and true he has picked some winners. Its the logic of a max bet on this is my point.

If a horse is overpriced by 8 points it has to be a max bet especially at early prices. There is usually a good opportunity to lay off if you wish at closer to the correct odds.

HarshOstrich

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Musselburgh 2.30
Human nature 2/1

A colt taking on 3 fillys, I think he has a great chance haveing been just touched off by tutu nguru last time, that horse finished 2nd last time in a competive 20 runner handicap beating 1 of the other runners in the race today very easily, dropping down from 6f to 5f should be in his favour as he has shown speed in all his races so far, the favourite plagiarism is the danger but I think human natures form is far stronger.
Max bet for me

Badly hampered at the 1 pole when looked to be staying on again
Not saying it would have won but was getting going again, the winner stopped him in his tracks, one to look out for back over 6f

magicmoves

Croquembouche 16-1 16:00 Musselburgh

Hes in cracking form this year. Has an increase of 6lb to contend but at that price worth an e/w bet.

nuckeythompson

Club wexford each way for me 5.35 tipp

mick malones mauser

Haydock
Heavenly River 5.55
Lucy Rie 8.35

Tipperary

hard Times 7.45

Best of luck
Each way patent for me (whispers for all 3)

Sham Squire

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Club wexford each way for me 5.35 tipp

Available at 66/1. Any reason you think so? Just curious. Don't think I've seen a horse that far out being tipped here before (but I'm relatively new so...)

krustydoyle

Chancing a few quid on Jamesie 5.35 Tipp

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

After a disaster of a last few days redemption may be around the corner. A good few on here myself included had Golden Shoe lined up for a nice bet in Galway. Runs tomorrow over 7f in the 19 45 in Tipp, i did not think there would be 20/1 available. Max Bet.

The Disaster continues. Golden Shoe was not off a yard today. Blew the start and given a very easy time from the turn to the line.

3rd time this week with An Sighduir that i have backed a horse that has halved in price and finished nowhere. Very frustrating.

NeverWaining

sdoc13 wrote: »

The Disaster continues. Golden Shoe was not off a yard today. Blew the start and given a very easy time from the turn to the line.

3rd time this week with An Sighduir that i have backed a horse that has halved in price and finished nowhere. Very frustrating.

It's grand, your cliff horse is back out again tomorrow.

kalinisi

kalinisi wrote: »

Dikta Del Mar, had a decent bet at 5s, won on soft in france, gets plenty of weight and can see her going mighty close here. (NAP)

Have backed Pontrificate (NB) @ 12s on that ground, although i fear plenty especially cash or casualty. going be a rule 4 on my 12s though, i've been waiting a while to back this fella on soft and have gone in.

Play the game @ 8/1 purely on the basis he's by lawman and should go through the ground, fav will be very hard to beat and it would be fair the say the obrien team are in a bit of form, small bet.

Jembatt, the bastard, just because if he won id be hoping so have had to have a small win bet just in case

Having a nightmare myself! My saver on cash or casualty beaten to 2nd after pontificate was nowhere to be found, play the game beats the O'Brien odds on shot and gets beaten a head, Dikta Del Mar finished 3rd but well beaten in fairness, sure thems the breaks roll on tomorrow and Kilbeggan.....