Is Cav finished?

Inquitus

His contract is up at Etixx this year, he had his best opportunity for a long time to cash in at the tour, especially with his nemisis Kittel absent and ends up getting schooled by a member of his old HTC leadout train.

Its not looking good for him really.

07Lapierre

Sprinters have a very short career..he's not as young as he used to be. He's not finished, just past his best.

Inquitus

07Lapierre wrote: »

Sprinters have a very short career..he's not as young as he used to be. He's not finished, just past his best.

So where does he go now? he's been linked with MTN Quebeka, I like Cav, but I can't see him easily reconciling his ego with being an also ran sprinter on a bit part team. He has good instincts on technical finishes, so will pick up the odd win in top class competition like he did this tour, but top end speed wise he's defo behind Griepel and Kittel, and can even be beaten by some of the 2nd tier sprinters if he gets it a bit wrong.

koutoubia

IMO He hasnt had the top end speed since he left Sky.
His lead out train and team car tactics were brilliant at HTC.
We all know what SKY can do when they have an aim/goal!
He seemed happier at Etixx but Greipel just seems to be getting stronger.

omri

koutoubia wrote: »

IMO He hasnt had the top end speed since he left Sky.
His lead out train and team car tactics were brilliant at HTC.
We all know what SKY can do when they have an aim/goal!
He seemed happier at Etixx but Greipel just seems to be getting stronger.

None of the top5 finishers today had a brilliant lead out train (comparing to what Cav had in HTC). He's not in the top form. You might as well ask is Sagan finished because he only managed 2nd spot during the TDF stages.

Inquitus

omri wrote: »

None of the top5 finishers today had a brilliant lead out train. He's not in the top form. You might as well ask is Sagan finished because he only managed 2nd spot during the TDF stages.

Sagan is not a 1 trick sprint pony, he had a great tour despite no stage wins and took the green jersey. You cannot compare Sagan and Cav.

Subpopulus

07Lapierre wrote: »

Sprinters have a very short career..he's not as young as he used to be. He's not finished, just past his best.

But he's three years younger than Griepel though, and Griepel seems to be getting better as the years go by...

koutoubia

omri wrote: »

None of the top5 finishers today had a brilliant lead out train (comparing to what Cav had in HTC). He's not in the top form. You might as well ask is Sagan finished because he only managed 2nd spot during the TDF stages.

He hasnt had form in almost 2 years.
Greipel,Kittel and the nutcase form France Bouhanni have more form then Cav.
He was the top dog for many years but faster riders are there.

Having said that he will probably win the rainbow this year.

Arrow in the Knee

Cav needs to muscle up as he looks a bit slim to me.

He doesn't look as strong as he did a couple of years ago and you need power to get to the line.

Inquitus

Arrow in the Knee wrote: »

Cav needs to muscle up as he looks a bit slim to me.

He doesn't look as strong as he did a couple of years ago and you need power to get to the line.

I agree he seems to have slimmed down alot, it was apparent at the British Champs, when he rode so well up the steep cobbled climb. What was the reasoning for it? Was it an effort to be better able to compete with Sagan for Green on a hilly parcours? Also on stage 15 to Valence it was he who was dropped on the hills not Greipel who went on to win, so this weight loss doesn't seem to have had the desired effect?

ednwireland

didnt team sky / british cycling slim him down in 2012 for the olympics never seemed the same after that

nak

People thought the same about Greipel the past couple of seasons, now he is back to his best.

Inquitus

nak wrote: »

People thought the same about Greipel the past couple of seasons, now he is back to his best.

Agreed but this lull has come at a particularly bad time for him being out of contract shortly, especially given the impact your teams leadout train had on results potential.

ROK ON

I'd be more worried about Dan Martin tbh. Cav wins lots.
Contract also up and unlike Cav he has the legs but seems to make the same error repeatedly with regard to positioning in final climbs. Cav wins a greater proportion of sprint stages relative to Dan on steep uphill finishes. There is also growing evidence that he is more of a one day specialist and less of the type of climber that we once thought - he seems to lack the ability of others in very long mountains.

Just a thought - sorry to derail.

Inquitus

ROK ON wrote: »

I'd be more worried about Dan Martin tbh. Cav wins lots.
Contract also up and unlike Cav he has the legs but seems to make the same error repeatedly with regard to positioning in final climbs. Cav wins a greater proportion of sprint stages relative to Dan on steep uphill finishes. There is also growing evidence that he is more of a one day specialist and less of the type of climber that we once thought - he seems to lack the ability of others in very long mountains.

Just a thought - sorry to derail.

Dan could be a great Classics addition for any team, he offers the sort of finish alot of teams lack at the moment, lets be honest he's not going to be a GT Contender, but then not everyone is. He should leave Garmin though, they don't really value him as well as they should.

Raam

Cav was sick last night if an earlier tweet is to be believed.

nak

Raam wrote: »

Cav was sick last night if an earlier tweet is to be believed.

He had a stomach bug for a few days I think.

14 or so wins plus a couple of points classifications so far this year is not too shabby.

Raam

A fever last night...
https://twitter.com/friebos/status/625361101853732864

Cavendish had fever last night & wasn't optimistic about sprint today.

Pudsy33

ROK ON wrote: »

I'd be more worried about Dan Martin tbh. Cav wins lots.
Contract also up and unlike Cav he has the legs but seems to make the same error repeatedly with regard to positioning in final climbs. Cav wins a greater proportion of sprint stages relative to Dan on steep uphill finishes. There is also growing evidence that he is more of a one day specialist and less of the type of climber that we once thought - he seems to lack the ability of others in very long mountains.

Just a thought - sorry to derail.

There are less races in a year suited to Dan than Cav though realistically. The former is limited to long and hilly Ardennes style raves, wheras there is any number of flat stages in a year. Also Martin has not hit his peak age for a climber, whereas Cavendish' is behind him.

On the other hand, I reckon Cav will definitely find a team willing to him numero uno. Dan needs to find a classics oriented team and perhaps one without strong climbers, like Etixx. He will find it harder.

ROK ON

^
Less races - which is why I used the word proportion.

gordongekko

Define finished?? Will he get a contract next year .....yes
Will be win the green jersey in the tour again......no

Pudsy33

ROK ON wrote: »

^
Less races - which is why I used the word proportion.

Even still, it's apples and oranges.

TheBlaaMan

Cav also lost some key members of his lead out team so he was always going to be trying to predict others trains today.

dastardly00

Ah Inquitus you can't be serious with this thread!

Cav still has a huge amount left in him.

RobFowl

It says a lot about him that a TDF with a stage win is considered a failure.
He's far from finished and worth a few stages yet.

omri

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Cav also lost some key members of his lead out team so he was always going to be trying to predict others trains today.

That's true, but he must have been out of a form big time. If Sagan - as pointed by others not a pure sprinter, can find his way in the bunch without the proper lead out and contest the 1st place much better than Cav.

Inquitus

dastardly00 wrote: »

Ah Inquitus you can't be serious with this thread!

Cav still has a huge amount left in him.

I am a huge fan of Cavs, but given Lefevere's comments re Cav and his contract being up at the moment, he finds himself in a poor position. I think he has more in him, but without a good team any sprinter struggles, and on current form he's no better than 3rd in the pure sprinting pecking order. He has only won a single stage in the last 2 editions of the TDF, and this year the worlds best sprinter wasn't even present. I have no doubt he can hoover up minor race sprint stages, but while once it looked almost certain he would eclipse Mercxx record of TDF stage wins, now it looks impossible, such has been the speed of his decline.

nak

Inquitus wrote: »

I am a huge fan of Cavs, but given Lefevere's comments re Cav and his contract being up at the moment, he finds himself in a poor position. I think he has more in him, but without a good team any sprinter struggles, and on current form he's no better than 3rd in the pure sprinting pecking order. He has only won a single stage in the last 2 editions of the TDF, and this year the worlds best sprinter wasn't even present. I have no doubt he can hoover up minor race sprint stages, but while once it looked almost certain he would eclipse Mercxx record of TDF stage wins, now it looks impossible, such has been the speed of his decline.

In fairness he didn't exactly get much of a chance to win stages in last year's Tour due to crashing out. Is Kittel finished too after missing most of the season due to sickness?

Raam

nak wrote: »

In fairness he didn't exactly get much of a chance to win stages in last year's Tour due to crashing out. Is Kittel finished too after missing most of the season due to sickness?

Degenkolb finished too. He didn't win anything in the TDF.

Raam

Greipel only won cos all the others are finished.

Raam

So Greipel is finished too.

Raam

They are all finished.

uphillonly

Inquitus wrote: »

Also on stage 15 to Valence it was he who was dropped on the hills not Greipel who went on to win, so this weight loss doesn't seem to have had the desired effect?

According to ITV podcast Cav had diarrhoea night before that stage so was just hanging on all day.

godtabh

nak wrote: »

He had a stomach bug for a few days I think.

14 or so wins plus a couple of points classifications so far this year is not too shabby.

And a week long GC win

Darkglasses

Well it depends on what exactly we mean by finished...

I'm sure he'll win at least a few more grand tour stages, but I don't think he'll ever be claiming the title of best sprinter in the world again.

omri

Raam wrote: »

They are all finished.

Yes, the TDF is over...

letape

Raam wrote: »

Degenkolb finished too. He didn't win anything in the TDF.

He is a very different rider to Cav (described as a one trick pony above) - he won two classics this year so is having the season of his life.

I think Cav is finished as the rider we knew and admired. He does not have a patch of the finishing speed he had in his highroad days. He was unbeatable as a sprinter in previous seasons.

Other sprinters of the past developed into more complete and versatile riders as they got older and lost some of their speed - like Kelly, Jalabert and Boonen. Cav hasn't done this so I do see his time at the top coming to an end.

gordongekko

I don't know what a tracker mortgage is!!!

Brian?

Cavendish isn't finished, but he's on a downward slide. With a fully intact lead out train, he's very capable of winning tour stages even still.

ZiabR

dastardly00 wrote: »

Ah Inquitus you can't be serious with this thread!

Cav still has a huge amount left in him.

I would tend to agree with this. I think at 30 he still has another 3-4 decent TDF in him and many stage wins. He was off form this TDF but he will be back.

L'Enfer du Nord

Raam wrote: »

They are all finished.

Yes but Griepel finished first.

Cav 'finished'? No. Will he retire, I doubt it. A lot depends on weather he wants to retire at the top (too late?) or is willing to keep going while in decline. If he's no longer able to win many bunch sprints maybe he can reinvent himself as a rouleur. Seems unlikely but based on the UK road race championship not out of the question. From memory it's only grand tour guys who seem to retire either at the top or soon after they are beaten, Hinault, Indurain, Merckx, Armstrong most cyclist seem willing to prolong their careers.

Junior

I wrote this last year for a podcast about Cav ... it still rings true.. sorry if it's a bit long. Also to point out of Cav's 14 wins this year 1 was ProTour level. The Tdf.

I think Cav is pissing his talent down his leg, and no one has the balls to grab him by the scruff of the neck and shake some sense into him. This again might seem overly harsh on Cav, but I of all the people in the world I shouldn't worry about, I worry about him. Yeah for sure that's odd as ****, but I suppose I see a lot of the average rider and myself in Cav. But lets leave that bit aside for a minute..

I think Sky broke Cav and broke him bad, its like every relationship the courtship was all romance and promises and well Team Sky(GB) delivered him the Worlds and all was rosy in the garden, till we came to the TdF, where a slimmed down Cav in the WC Jersey was fetching bottles and not getting the lead out that he required. Regardless of the tantrums, the shouting on the bus, as a sprinter, he was no longer #1 - he was no longer the fastest man alive - and he didn't have a team that believed or were bothered in him. Yeah let Cav rant and rave and sure look when it's all done he'll still go get bottles and sure look we'll do best effort to help him out, if it suits us.

That was the breaking point I think looking back at it, Cav is a pack animal, the leader of the rough and tumble pack, the King of Sprinters, and well some GC Riders and a team clipped his nails, put a collar on him in the shape of the WC Jersey and led him round, sure he barked and growled but he'd been tamed. As a sprinter you need to believe you are the best, you are the quickest, you also need to have the others in the pack think you are better than them, you need to have the fight half won in their heads before the fight starts. Cav lost all that with Sky, he lost his team mates, he lost those who believed in him. When the relationship broke down he moved across to Quickstep but it was like going back to an Ex, sure she'd aged, changed wore different clothes, and was somewhat familiar but things were different, she'd changed, you'd changed.

Cav isn't even the premier sprinter at Quickstep, he doesn't command the team, and I don't think he knows how to. I think Sky has badly affected his confidence, his abilities and his judgement. He's now morphing slowly into a modern day Cipo, rolled out for some of the Grand Tours and that's about it really.

Why do I think this ? Ok lets look at what he's said over the past while, he's not bothered chasing green jersies any more - yet he spends three weeks hauling his ass round Italy to get the points jersey which he loses. If TdF stages and the like are your prime objective you don't spend three weeks flogging yourself round italy in prep for being at the business end of stage finishes in France.

He's not interested in "****ty little races" but yet he expects to rock up Tour time with a fully functioning lead out train. Lets look at how that's going to work Renshaw and Pettachi are his main men, put them up against De Kort, Degenkolb and Kittel, or even the Lotto line up and you can see straight away, Cav has brought a knife to a gun fight. Sure a Tdf lead out train is about three things, positioning, power and luck. Put those three teams in a straight up drag race and he's going to get blown out of the water. Plus the other teams have the advantage of using that power to negate the nous of knowing how to get into a position.

Looking deeper at the team, we have already seen the classics team at Quickstep demonstrating unity, togetherness and dedication to one rider in how they ride already, they believe in Tom. I'm not sure anyone believes in Cav. Renshaw maybe might have been enough to keep him quiet for a while, but to what purpose - to get the sprint train running so he can take the yellow jersey in the UK - fair enough, good plan. Where are they executing this ? They aren't.

Cav should have been at Oman and Qatar, he should be looking for Andy Fenn, he should be seeing who's got the power for this job. He should be asserting himself to be the best he can be, he should be laying down a marker to other sprinters, I am the best in the world, I have the best team in the world, fancy a ****in drag race ?

Instead what have we seen from Cav this year, I think he genuinely tried to hide himself under a bushel coming into MSR (see it all links back to this) and pretend he wasn't really interested when it was probably one of his targets this season. I think this shows the fact he's still not full comfortable with the tag of favourite, and he's afraid he'll get ****ed like he did at the Olympics. So does this reflect badly on him, his management, his team ? I think it's a little from all three columns.

If we take MSR as a microcosm of Cav, he had prepared really well, but in the end the little things let him down. We saw Tv footage of him shivering, he was wearing just a mid season gilet over what looked possibly to be a skin suit or perhaps a PRR race jersey. No aquazero jacket for Cav, sure he wouldn't have been any drier than anyone else out there, but he would have been somewhat warmer and loosing less energy trying to heat himself up. What's the point in the aero helmet, the aero overshoes and you losing a race because you wouldn't wear a jacket ?

Also if this was one of Cav's team stated goals, where was the team at the end ? He had Stybar there, but he didn't even get a sniff of a lead out from him, I think in the end Stybar rode his own race, again reinforcing the point that well Cav is mainly on his own.

I just get this feeling Cav doesn't know what to do with himself, he can't mould himself into a Classics rider, hasn't really an interest in winning Green Jersies and because he's not as wound up or dominate as he was, he's just left wallow.

el tel

With his background in ballroom dancing I want to see him on Strictly Come Dancing this year.

He could do the "Quick Step" and literally 'wipe the floor'. His team sponsors would be fooking dee-lighted.

omri

el tel wrote: »

With his background in ballroom dancing I want to see him on Strictly Come Dancing this year.

He could do the "Quick Step" and literally 'wipe the floor'. His team sponsors would be fooking dee-lighted.

omfg - you're watching Strictly Come Dancing :eek: