Investing in Iran?

homer911

Where do we start?

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0720/715970-iran-investment/

davmol

I would wait to see how things pan out.The Americans havent agreed to it yet pending a nod from congress and Netanyahu and the Israelis/Israeli lobbies will do anything to stop a deal and welcome Iran in from the cold.

If things do go well and Iran join the international community embargoes can be snapped back into place quickly enough if Iran are seen to break any of the Conditions laid down by the bodies involved.

FluffyAngel

great piece on iran and investment intertwined with a tour guide story

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/jul/07/its-not-like-argo-tour-guide-in-iran

daheff

In fairness to the OP, theres a wall of money waiting to come out of Iran. I read there were something like 100bn USD of offshore assets that Iran will gain access to once sanctions are lifted.


couple that with access to oil markets again (drop in oil prices) Iran will be awash with money waiting for international companies who will rush in.

do some research and see which companies are likely to invest in Iran once they can (maybe think of it as a smaller version of China 10 years ago).

I reckon companies like Coca Cola, automobile companies, Civilian Aircraft manufacturers, Consumer electronics, McDonalds, Starbucks etc will be at the forefront


I'd look at investing in these rather than Iran directly as its less risky.

BuilderPlumber

Iran may well be a very lucrative country to invest in. But it depends on one man, Ali Khamenei.

Ali Khamenei is the lazy, depressive, megarich, eccentric and often controversial priest and Shah of Iran. Albeit, he will not call himself that! And that's just the start of the contradictions of this man. He is a man who can give out about Israel at mass on Friday and then do under the table deals with them the next day. He also claims to be on the side of the poor, yet Iran under his rule is a country for a rich elite. He is an odd mix of Archbishop JC McQuaid, Kim Jong Il and Stalin roled into one.

Iran certainly would be better off without him? This is the million dollar question. The answer is it depends and this is why I would not invest in Iran at the moment.

Ali Khamenei is quite old and in poor health. There is no obvious successor but plenty rivals who would like to take his place. Iranians are not very happy with hos their country has been governed and are divided amongst some who want to replace the regime and those who want to reform it.

How this resolves itself will tell a lot. Peacefully or otherwise. More concessions will need to be given to the people and a serious stab at continuing the reforms and expanding them that the current Iranian government are doing is needed. The people will want to see the fruits of Iran's new deal in their pockets.

Khamenei's preferred successor of course is his son and in order to sell this idea to the people (hereditory monarchy in the style of the Pahlavi and Qajar shahs), he will have to sweeten the deal for Iranian people by making friends with countries who can make Iran rich and by reversing unpopular dress code and alcohol laws. The question then has to be asked: will Iranians be happy with a Khamenei dynasty that offers complete social freedom and economic success where all Iranians prosper and the country regains a huge tourism, wine and manufacturing industry and expanded oil business. Or will they want political freedom too? The story seen in places like China is that people will put social and economic issues above political.

Tugboats

daheff wrote: »

In fairness to the OP, theres a wall of money waiting to come out of Iran. I read there were something like 100bn USD of offshore assets that Iran will gain access to once sanctions are lifted.


couple that with access to oil markets again (drop in oil prices) Iran will be awash with money waiting for international companies who will rush in.

do some research and see which companies are likely to invest in Iran once they can (maybe think of it as a smaller version of China 10 years ago).

I reckon companies like Coca Cola, automobile companies, Civilian Aircraft manufacturers, Consumer electronics, McDonalds, Starbucks etc will be at the forefront


I'd look at investing in these rather than Iran directly as its less risky.

Great advice and should be a sticky on every investment forum. Iran has Bulgarian apartments written all over it as Johnny and Mary start buying Iranian stocks and new funds run by muppets

BuilderPlumber

davmol wrote: »

I would wait to see how things pan out.The Americans havent agreed to it yet pending a nod from congress and Netanyahu and the Israelis/Israeli lobbies will do anything to stop a deal and welcome Iran in from the cold.

If things do go well and Iran join the international community embargoes can be snapped back into place quickly enough if Iran are seen to break any of the Conditions laid down by the bodies involved.

I think Israel needs to be lead by someone other than Netanyahu. Iran will come in from the cold sooner or later under its current government or a future one. It is the will of the Iranian people and Iran's unelected elite have to go along with the reforms of the elected president and government in order to survive.

A new order is needed in the Middle East. In the 21st century, there should be no place for religious based hatred. But there are factions who profit out of all this.

BuilderPlumber

Tugboats wrote: »

Great advice and should be a sticky on every investment forum. Iran has Bulgarian apartments written all over it as Johnny and Mary start buying Iranian stocks and new funds run by muppets

You can bet that Irish developers will be flying in and out of Tehran and securing large developments along the Caspian sea cost.

daheff

Heres a good article from Bloomberg on Iran


iran