Fianna Fail seats in GE2016

Irishlad99

How many seats will Fianna Fail get in the next election? I'm putting my estimate at between 35 and 40? Too optimistic?

johnnyskeleton

Not wildly optimistic and not impossible, but I doubt they will get that. They are currently on 20 seats, none of which are in Dublin. There are a lot of dissatisfied FF members who are critical of Micheal Martin, but to be honest hes probably as good a leader as they have. They could do with some new blood but will end up with the same old guard e.g. Mary Hanafin talking about reentering the fray.

They could get a 2016 boost of nationalism and they are making the right noises for the soft anti austerity crowd, but SF will take their votes here. Likewise, the centerist/stable ship/things getting better slowly will probably stick with FG this time around.

I would say 25-30 with 3-5 in Dublin would be a good result for them. I suspect they will win at least 2 in Dublin.

However, as a party that once had a TD in pretty much every constituency to a party that is solidly ~20-25% in the polls, they could fall into the trap of not realising seats proportionate to their % national support.

But Id welcome the views of anyone who has done a thorough constituency analysis and can prove me wrong

Sierra Oscar

33 on a bad day, 38 on a good day and 42 on a very good day.

FF should have returned 23-25 seats at the last election but lost out in a number of constituencies due to having too many candidates on the ticket. The party seems to be running a tight ticket strategy for the next election so that shouldn't be a problem this time around.

Irishlad99

I had heard they are aiming for 40 seats in the next election, I think its feasible simply because many voters had been angered by the crash and all that followed but I think they're slowly returning to FF. I think many underestimate the support they have! I like Michael Martin. Many would love to see him gone because of the fact that he was a minister in the previous FF governments. Also, I think selecting candidates such as Mary Hanafin may affect FF's image going into the next elections!

ILikeBananas

Back of an envelope calculation:

29 non dublin constituencies: average of 1 each = 29

11 Dublin constituencies: average of 1 per 2 = 6 (rounding up)

35

Jawgap

Irishlad99 wrote: »

How many seats will Fianna Fail get in the next election? I'm putting my estimate at between 35 and 40? Too optimistic?

Probably depends on who runs.

They surely must pick up a few seats in Dublin and will probably hold a lot of what they have and hoover up one or two along the way outside the M50.

I'd guess somewhere around 30 to 34, although I suspect they'll be satisfied with anything over 30.

If they start bringing back the 'big beasts' they can forget about getting 30 - probably closer to the mid-20s!

I'd also suspect that MM will be gone as leader shortly after the GE.

Manach

It depends how much that they can capitalise on the discontent with the current Government and how they can differentiate themselves for the other protest votes. A lot might be how well they can establish themselves as a v 2.0 brand.
My 2c very low 40s seat number.

Unblinking_Eye

I'll give it a lash:

Carlow–Kilkenny: Alyward and McGuinness should hold their two seats. Might pick up a third year if SF is much weaker than expected or FG implodes. (2)

Cavan–Monaghan: Will hold 1. 2nd seat might be beyond them between boundary changes and a very strong SF Cavan candidate. (1)

Clare : The biggest spoofer in the country (and thats saying a lot) will hold his seat. Although both their potential 2nd candidates are unknowns (Michael ‘Malty’ McDonaghClaire Colleran-Molloy); I'm inclined to give them the 2nd seat unless a strong Independent appears. (1)

Cork East : Difficult to call between Labour and FG's decline in the polls and severe infighting in SF locally. Will pick up 1 but not sure from who. (1)

Cork North–Central : 1 seat (Kelleher) and probably in the running for a 2nd seat between SF2, SP and LAB (Lynch). (1)

Cork North–West : Possible 2nd if they can beat FG2 and SF. Probably only 1. (1)

Cork South–Central : Martin's (FF) seat is secure along with Coveney (FG). The last two seats are between Michael McGrath (2FF), Donnchadh O'Laoghaire (SF) and Buttimer. I'd be inclined to give it to McGrath and O'Laoghaire given boundary changes which affect Buttimer. (2)

Cork South–West : Will easily pick up a seat. In 2011 the party got 23% but no seat. 2nd one might be out of reach given FGs strength and votes former FF councillor Coleman will take. (1)

Donegal : The first four seats are pretty predictable: Doherty (SF1), MacLochlainn (SF2), FF1 and FG1. Problem is I can't tell you exactly if it's going to be the incumbent FF TD McConalogue, Neill Blaney or former MEP Pat the Cope Gallagher. There a fairly detailed thread on politics.ie on it reminding us why Donegal is Ireland's answer to Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Last two seats are between SF3, Pringle (IND) and FF2. FF will probably take just the 1. (1)

Dublin Bay North : Probably should take 1. (1)

Dublin Bay South : Given the high level of competition, FF's poor polling in Dublin, and the fact that their former TD who narrowly lost his seat in 2011 is now running for SF; taking a seat here will be beyond them. (0)

Dublin Central : Zero chance. If Mary Fitzpatrick had managed to get elected as an MEP last year, she'd have a good shot for the last seat. Party has no councillors and no organisation here. Far cry from the glory days of the Drumcondra Mafia. (0)

Dublin Fingal : I'd say Darragh O'Brien will take back his seat. (1)

Dublin Mid–West : Will poll well but unlikely. (0)

Dublin North–West : Unlikely to take a seat. (0)

Dublin Rathdown : Too competitive. Have a chance for the last seat. (0)

People's Republic of Dublin South Central : Nope. (0)

Dublin South–West : Either Lahart or O'Connor (whoever they pick) will have a shot for the last seat. I'd say transfers will work against whichever (0)

Dublin West : Any chance they had is gone given the massive fallout from the selection convention. Vradker (FG) and Donnelly (SF) will probably take the first two seat which means Chambers (FF) will have to deal with Hall (Ind), McGuinness (ex-FF Ind), Coppinger (SP/AAA/or whichever acronym the Trots are using this month) and Burton (Foghorn Party). More people have resigned from the party since then. Think they've blown it tbh. (0)

Dun Laoghaire : I'd have Hannafin (FF) taking a seat but given the fact that Barrett is automatically returned, which frees up a massive pool of FG voters, its hard to know who they'll go for with any degree of certainty. (0)

Galway East : Probably 1 seat (Kitt). Have a chance for a second seat. Colm Keaveny (FF exLab) is dead on arrival here. (1)

Galway West : Just the 1 here. (1)

Kerry : One and it won't be the bull. (1)

Kildare North . One. (1)

Kildare South : One. They might fancy their chances for a 2nd given Wall (Lab) is retiring. (1)

Laois : Their second candidate could unseat Stanley (SF) who had a bad local election last year. Probably just the 1 on the day. (1)

Limerick City : Willie O'Dea will not permit a 2nd candidate. (1)

Limerick County : Weirdly the party is just running one candidate which means they're conceeding a seat to SF. (1)

Longford–Westmeath : One. Can anyone illuminate me on why Kevin 'Boxer' Moran left the party (1).

Louth : One a good day might get a 2nd seat. (1)

Mayo : Inclined to give them a 2nd seat unless FG3 or SF (Conway-Walsh) manage to get ahead of them. (2)

Meath East & Meath West : One each. (2)

Offaly : One seat guaranteed for FF (Cowen). Last two seats will be between SF (who managed to beat FG in the council elections in terms of vote), FF2 and FG. Probably could take 2. (2)

Roscommon–Galway : Probably just 1. Too much competition from Independents (1).

Sligo–Leitrim : I'd see them pick up 2. FG have weakened and the only strong Indo is Declan Bree who's fishing from the same pool as SF. (2)

Tipperary : Given the sheer number of FF and FF Indo's its hard to predict. Can see them take 1 seat. (1)

Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow : One each. On a good day could pick up a 2nd seat in Wexford. (3)

Grand Total: 36.

Martin will become the first leader of FF never to become Taoiseach. Only chance for power is if he goes into coalition with FG.

bob50

My prediction would be if they have 20 seats at present where can they pick up

my toughts are Labours vote will collaspe so their current number of 32 tds. Labour will most likely be returned with 3 / 4 tds so im thinking that at least half of labours will go FF i also think a lot of the independents will go back to established parties like FF. FG

I am looking at 40 seats for FF inspite M Martin and i do think they will do well Dublin

efb

I hear 35, I thought that was high. Seems about right now.

2 in OY, that 3rd seat is up for grabs, I don't think they'll get it. It's along time since FF had two Offaly TDs

Unblinking_Eye

efb wrote: »

I hear 35, I thought that was high. Seems about right now.

2 in OY, that 3rd seat is up for grabs, I don't think they'll get it. It's along time since FF had two Offaly TDs

Its a new creation. Has been lumped in with laois since the 20s.

Making my prediction based on the county council results last year: FF 11,000, SF 5,600 and FG 5,500.

Also didn't factor in Independents such as Leahy and that bit north of Nenagh which has been stuck onto the county.

efb

Unblinking_Eye wrote: »

Its a new creation. Has been lumped in with laois since the 20s.

Making my prediction based on the county council results last year: FF 11,000, SF 5,600 and FG 5,500.

Also didn't factor in Independents such as Leahy and that bit north of Nenagh which has been stuck onto the county.

I know, I do live here, just Offaly hasn't returned 2 FF TD's since early 90's.

Unblinking_Eye

efb wrote: »

I know, I do live here, just Offaly hasn't returned 2 FF TD's since early 90's.

Who do you think it'll be?

efb

No idea, thought it was SF if Killeavy ran, could be anyone now, even 2 FF!

I heart TV

Micheal Martin thinks they will have 78 seats

nuac

Thanks, Unblinking Eye for the comprehensive analysis.

A few comments

Galway East

Think Keaveny has a reasonable chance

MAyo

Much local disappointment that a Mayo Taoiseach did not deliver more, Many announcements now, but may not be in time. Ní h-é lá na gaoithe lá na sgoilb agus mar sin. FG vote will be down. Deffo two FG Kenny and RIng, One FF Calleary, Battle Royal for last seat. Lisa Chambers was a last minute runner for FF last year, polled well. Is now a Co COuncillor, active on the ground, and will improve on her 3500 approx from 2011. Kilcoyne Ind and Conway Walsh SF also in the running.

There are also a group of independents organising a joint campaign. Don't know much of them so far, except that a former member of that group has taken to invading courtrooms to publicise his particular agenda.

Galway West

6500 approx new voters exiled from Mayo. FG claim most will be theirs. Not sure about that. Ó'Cuiv is at CLonbur, just over the border with Mayo. He is very well known in Mayo. He will attract a good share of those votes. I don't know the strength of the other FF candidate, but Ó'Cuiv is a seasoned campaigner.

FH Eames constantly shooting herself in her foot, but she came very close in 2011, Her recent statements about injections and drugs may resonate with many who are worried about what big Pharma is up to. Would not write her off.

Catherine COnnolly has been a hardworking and constructive councillor and lawyer for many years. More Labour and socialist in her time than MDH ever was. Close enough before. This could be her year

efb

FF could be solid for 2 in OY yet

oscarBravo

nuac wrote: »

Much local disappointment that a Mayo Taoiseach did not deliver more, Many announcements now, but may not be in time.

[...]


Her recent statements about injections and drugs may resonate with many who are worried about what big Pharma is up to.

Everything that is wrong with Irish democracy, in two sentences.

Sierra Oscar

efb wrote: »

FF could be solid for 2 in OY yet

Quietly confident of sneaking two seats in certain constituencies where the party already has a seat.

Manach

oscarBravo wrote: »

Everything that is wrong with Irish democracy, in two sentences.

FYP

nuac

oscarBravo wrote: »

Everything that is wrong with Irish democracy, in two sentences.

In multi-member constituencies there are no safe seats. Few TDs are elected or stay elected unless they are seen to devote time and energy to local issues.

I can recall only two exceptions to this rule

Seán Flanagan who was elected and re-elected as a TD and later as an MEP.
He was a brilliant man, spoke straight from the shoulder. He did not have to bother with the dull grind of party meetings etc. He had captained two Mayo All Ireland Winning teams. Apart from FF support, many GAA people worked for his re-election.

John Kelly
Outstanding academic and speaker. Supported for that reason. Anyhow his electorate would not be bothering TDs on minor matters.


As far FDE, "loose cannon" would be a polite description, but she may have a point in her recent remarks re drugs, big Pharma etc.

She came close last time

Eric Cartman

North Kildare Id say stagg may be done for.

I think Murphy and Durkan will stay (I wish I could say murphy would be gone but for some reason people keep voting for her)

Frank O'Rourke and James Lawless are both on the ticket , both topped polls in the locals in their LEA's . One of them will definitely take a seat, but 2 is still a fairly strong possibility considering labour's woes of late.