Is Ireland's debt greater than Greece's??

Rhys Essien

Just seen on Sky news that Greece's total debt is €323 billion.Going by this our's is nearly €182 billion.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Our population is 4.6m and there's is 10.8m.Our debt to their population would be €427 billion.Therefore on a pro rata basis we are more in debt.

Silly question but have they more of a chance of paying off their debt than us.Probably in the next hundred years.

Menas

Is that just government debt, or government and private?

professore

You are right, however we make a lot more money per head than they do.

Gavlor

Greece debt to gdp 2014 = 176%

Ireland debt to gdp 2014 = 110%

Debt to population number is irrelevant.

professore

Menas wrote: »

Is that just government debt, or government and private?

Government debt. Our private debt is enormous.

Sir Osis of Liver.

professore wrote: »

You are right, however we make a lot more money per head than they do.

And we're better looking.

blackcard

Gavlor wrote: »

Greece debt to gdp 2014 = 176%

Ireland debt to gdp 2014 = 110%

Debt to population number is irrelevant.

Our gdp could fall dramatically in a downturn, whilst our population is unlikely to change significantly so I think it is relevant

Gavlor

blackcard wrote: »

Our gdp could fall dramatically in a downturn, whilst our population is unlikely to change significantly so I think it is relevant

It's not at all relevant.

It's all part of the socialist agenda alright and makes for a decent sound bite but long term, it's irrelevant.

The U.S. Has a debt to gdp of 101% yet they owe trillions. Are they also in a worse situation than Greece??

Also, we borrow money at a much much cheaper rate to Greece due to our debt to gdp and also the reduction of our budget deficit.

pmasterson95

Here comes the keyboard economists.

Harry Palmr

What matters is not the size of the debt but the ability to pay the interest on the debt. Low interest rates + growth = happiness

Gavlor

pmasterson95 wrote: »

Here comes the keyboard economists.

It's not really that difficult to understand

SpaceTime

It's like comparing someone with a huge mortgage and someone with a huge debt on credit cards and money lenders knocking on the door and bailiffs trying to take the car.

Ireland's debts are too high, but we've more income, more financial and industrial resources and a good value national mortgage so we're not going to be in trouble unless something dramatic happens.

We're also growing again which helps a lot too.

The Greek crisis is simply far, far worse both in numbers terms and in real terms.

People are scavenging in bins for food, it's that bad and that level of economic shock and poverty shouldn't be possible in the EU.

Mr_Muffin

Is there a giant database where all the info on Ireland's debt is held?

If there is we could pay ISIS a few million to over run it and destroy all the data therefore making Ireland debt free.

ressem

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What matters is not the size of the debt but the ability to pay the interest on the debt. Low interest rates + growth = happiness

Also, to whom the debt is owed.
If your primary creditor can get stroppy and decline to allow you to roll over the debt for political or ideological reasons; that allows private creditors to hold you over a barrel and hike interest rates to squeeze till the pips squeak. Or, in the case of the ECB, call in the debt early.

Enda Kenny's aping the stance of the German politicians is cringe inducing, but it's probably better for Ireland's self-interest in the short term;
provided that himself and Noonan don't become the frontmen for the austerity hawks.

But the conditions imposed always should have been focused on getting the tax collection arm of government into shape.
Just like our bailout was supposed to incorporate legal reform but our crowd dropped it when opposed.

alias no.9

Rhys Essien wrote: »

Just seen on Sky news that Greece's total debt is €323 billion.Going by this our's is nearly €182 billion.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Our population is 4.6m and there's is 10.8m.Our debt to their population would be €427 billion.Therefore on a pro rata basis we are more in debt.

Silly question but have they more of a chance of paying off their debt than us.Probably in the next hundred years.

There's little or no chance of either debt ever being paid down, or more to the point the nominal amount outstanding being reduced by payments made by the country. Even in the best of years, Ireland made no significant reduction in the nominal amount of debt outstanding. Instead countries tend to roll over and refinance debt. This makes the rates at which a country can issue bonds critical.
Ireland were not issuing new bonds in the open market in 2011 because we were in a bailout but existing 10 year bonds were trading on secondary markets at rates in excess of 12%, in 2015 the rates are below 2%.

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/ireland-government-bond-yield.png?s=gigb10yr&v=201507030604

Now there is no possible way Irish 10 year bonds would be trading at under 2% if there had been a 'burning of bondholders', a 'debt writedown', a 'haricut' or whatever language you want to use yourself to describe a reduction in the nominal debt outstanding by means other than the Irish government paying it.

A balanced budget, growing GDP and low interest rates are what make debt sustainable. Without a big public standoff, its then possible to work on refinancing the components of the debt that carry the highest rates and reduce the costs of servicing it, for example paying the IMF back early.

donegaLroad

Greece's external debt at the end of Sept 2013, was $568 billion

http://www.indexmundi.com/greece/debt_external.html



In September 2013, it was reported that Ireland's external debt was $1.64 Trillion

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-debt-total-at-164-trillion-new-figures-29615178.html


Ireland's external debt currently stands at $1721604 million

(is that $1.72 Trillion? Im not sure)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/external-debt

SpaceTime

Ireland's external debt figure vs Greece's figure is actually utterly meaningless as an economic measure.

The majority of our 'external debt' is a mixture of large scale financial services in the IFSC and corporate HQs using Ireland as a 'debt centre' for tax efficiency reasons.
External debt for the UK is over 400% of GDP due to the scale of the City of London and Luxembourg is 3443% of GDP

Countries that are bad for locating businesses, especially financial services, like Greece will have relatively lower external debts.

Bear in mind that even foreign money on deposit in a bank is an "External debt" as it's owed to someone.

What you need to look at his what % of that is made up of public debt or what % is made up from household debt to have any kind of a useful figure, otherwise it's just a scary big number.
Throwing large numbers around without knowing what they mean is one thing the tabloids and even some of the mainstream media are certainly good at. You have to drill down a lot deeper into those figures before you can actually see what's happening.

Asmooh

professore wrote: »

Government debt. Our private debt is enormous.

I dont have debt..

SpaceTime

I'd also add private debt can be and regularly is written down.

Take a look at eircom for example, a foreign owned company with large operations in Ireland (let's not get too patriotic about it).

It wrote its debts down to €2.3 billion from a massive €4.1 billion, yet it's now actually trading better than ever as it can get access to the cash it needed to finance network build out.

Private debt's a problem, but it's not an insurmountable one as it is treated a hell of a lot more sensibly than public debt.

That's also why the Irish Government was so determined to build special purpose vehicles to keep debts off the national books.

Jawgap

The amount of debt is, to a degree, irrelevant.

It's how it's structured that determines whether it's sustainable.

For example, if I borrow €200 and I'm told I have to pay it all back in 7 days, that's problematic compared to being loaned €1000 with a requirement to pay it back at €1 per week starting in 6 months time.

SpaceTime

Jawgap wrote: »

The amount of debt is, to a degree, irrelevant.

It's how it's structured that determines whether it's sustainable.

For example, if I borrow €200 and I'm told I have to pay it all back in 7 days, that's problematic compared to being loaned €1000 with a requirement to pay it back at €1 per week starting in 6 months time.

Big difference between secured and unsecured too.

Jawgap

SpaceTime wrote: »

Big difference between secured and unsecured too.

Indeed - I think that's where Greece is running into problems now - everything is hocked!

donegaLroad

SpaceTime wrote: »

Ireland's external debt figure vs Greece's figure is actually utterly meaningless as an economic measure.

The majority of our 'external debt' is a mixture of large scale financial services in the IFSC and corporate HQs using Ireland as a 'debt centre' for tax efficiency reasons.
External debt for the UK is over 400% of GDP due to the scale of the City of London and Luxembourg is 3443% of GDP

Countries that are bad for locating businesses, especially financial services, like Greece will have relatively lower external debts.

Bear in mind that even foreign money on deposit in a bank is an "External debt" as it's owed to someone.

What you need to look at his what % of that is made up of public debt or what % is made up from household debt to have any kind of a useful figure, otherwise it's just a scary big number.
Throwing large numbers around without knowing what they mean is one thing the tabloids and even some of the mainstream media are certainly good at. You have to drill down a lot deeper into those figures before you can actually see what's happening.

thanks, I was aware of some of this alright... my question is, how can Ireland's external debt be as large as €2 Trillion? We have a population of 4.5 million.

China's external debt for example, was $3 Trillion at the end of 2013... their population is 1.3 billion.

Gavlor

Gavlor wrote: »

Greece debt to gdp 2014 = 176%

Ireland debt to gdp 2014 = 110%

Debt to population number is irrelevant.

Funnily enough (well, it's not particularly funny) Irish household debt to income is exactly the same as Greek government debt to GDP. It's extremely high. People might remember that before getting mounting their high horses in the European charge against the Greeks.

If you exclude foreign corporations, Ireland's total debt to GDP is about 300%. Again, higher than Greece.

However, if we want to exclude foreign companies' debt we should also exclude foreign companies' income, and frame our debt as a percentage of GNP.

In that case, Irish total indebtedness (excluding foreign corporations) is about 350% of GNP.

Sheldons Brain

Greek public debt is something like 10 years of Greek exports, Ireland's just over one year of exports.

Kermit.de.frog

Vote shinner after the next election and they promise to plant magic money trees on every estate in Ireland - except if you work hard and earn a good wage.

SpaceTime

donegaLroad wrote: »

thanks, I was aware of some of this alright... my question is, how can Ireland's external debt be as large as €2 Trillion? We have a population of 4.5 million.

China's external debt for example, was $3 Trillion at the end of 2013... their population is 1.3 billion.

Because we have billions and billions of company assets and liabilities located here for tax purposes mostly, but also because it's a business-friendly, English-speaking location that's sort of become the Eurozone alternative to London for some companies.
Ireland's a mid-sized financial centre.

China isn't and won't be because of how it operates. Hong Kong is though.

Greece is one of the last places you'd think of to setup a major subsidiary unless you wanted to tap cheap labour or something like that. Hence any bank HQs there are all local.

Gavlor

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Funnily enough (well, it's not particularly funny) Irish household debt to income is exactly the same as Greek government debt to GDP. It's extremely high. People might remember that before getting mounting their high horses in the European charge against the Greeks.

If you exclude foreign corporations, Ireland's total debt to GDP is about 300%. Again, higher than Greece.

However, if we want to exclude foreign companies' debt we should also exclude foreign companies' income, and frame our debt as a percentage of GNP.

In that case, Irish total indebtedness (excluding foreign corporations) is about 350% of GNP.

Ah come on. Are you seriously comparing household debt to gvt debt and then excluding foreign Corporation gdp??

If your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle