Irish Derby 2015.

tryfix

It's gone under the radar this year and now it's just days away..


Jack Hobbs is a hot and worthy favourite at 4/6 which isn't a great price in a race that an English horse hasn't won since 1994 when the filly Balanchine won it for Godolphin. That's close to the kind of price that Golden Horn would be for the race if he was running in it.

There are 9 left in, 5 of them ran at Epsom, Jack Hobbs ( second ) , Storm The Stars (third), Giovanni Canaletto (fourth), Kilimanjaro (sixth) and Carbon Dating (eight). The other 4 are Highland Reel, Radanpour, and the two classic winning fillies Qualify and Pleasach.

The odds are roughly 4/6 Jack Hobbs, 7/1 about Highland Reel, Giovanni Canaletto and Storm The Stars, 10/1 Qualify and Pleasach, 16/1 Radanpour, 33/1 Kilimanjaro, 100/1 Carbon Dating.



The track may be perfect for Jack Hobbs and he could improve from Epsom where he beat all except a star colt. I'm not sure he looked to have stayed that well at Epsom and seemed to be running out of puff in the last furlong. Hard to see Storm The Stars reversing places with him.

O'Brien has farmed this race and a win for him would be no surprise, Jockey bookings will help sort out the merit of his runners. Highland Reel appeals as a horse they thought enough of to send to France for both their Guineas and Derby. He wasn't beaten far by a very impressive colt in New Bay who's a short price for the Arc. Don't know if the French form is up to much but O'Brien's horses have been improving hugely in the last few weeks. Giovanni Canaletto will have to do a repeat of Soldier and Fortune and Frozen Fire who were well beaten at Epsom and came on hugely to win at the Curragh, he wasn't quite ready for Epsom so he could improve a lot.

Qualify's Oaks was run in a slow time and Pleasach's 1,000 Guineas form has taken a few knocks although Found boosted it slightly, Pleasach is entered in another race at the weekend so may not run.

Radanpour could be anything but this is Gp1 company, Kilimanjaro wasn't that far behind the placed horses at Epsom and could place here at a nice price, Carbon Dating is disrespected at 100/1 but still hard to back. The field is likely to reduce to below 8 so EW options are limited enough.

Johner

Jack Hobbs looks a class above that lot, should win easily.

Gringo180

Will be on Kilimanjaro w/o the fav. He was an absolute mile back turning for home at Epsom and made big headway on the placed horses in the last few furlongs of the race.

mailburner

like giovanni and hoping moore picks that
wouldve been an easy winner over this distance when behind curvy
will have a wee nibble on kilimanjaro also

longshotvalue

I think Highland Reel is the better horse, and i wouldn't be surprised if moore picked that..

Francie Barrett

You can't accuse Jimmy Long of lacking ambition anyway, Carbon Dating declared :pac: Perhaps not as stupid as it seems, there's 12.5k of prize money for 6th.

tryfix

aidankkk wrote: »

I think Highland Reel is the better horse, and i wouldn't be surprised if moore picked that..

I noticed that Highland Reel is in the Eclipse next week, on pedigree he would be better suited by that trip but the Irish Derby this year is an awful lot softer a race than the Eclipse which is going to be a stunning race with Golden Horn, New Bay and The Grey Gatsby set to run in it.

The Speedily bred Gailileo Colts like Rip Van Winkle seem to we'll able to run over a variety of distances and Highland Reel looks well capable of making a bold show if he's not kept back for the Eclipse.

Qualify is tempting, the harder they go eary on the better she'll come home, not the class of Salsabil or Balanchine but she's an Oaks winner and a filly in form should be feared. If her Oaks victim Legatissimo hadn't came across Qualify in the Oaks and ran here she'd be half Qualify's price. Would be mighty interesting if Pleasach runs as well, she could have had an off day at Ascot and likes this track.

posturingpat

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You can't accuse Jimmy Long of lacking ambition anyway, Carbon Dating declared :pac: Perhaps not as stupid as it seems, there's 12.5k of prize money for 6th.

Oliver Brady used to do similar. Only 4 or 5 in some races and all he had to do was have a runner get round to make money.

ShaneU

Pleascach out. Was going to back it as well

byronbay2

aidankkk wrote: »

I think Highland Reel is the better horse, and i wouldn't be surprised if moore picked that..

Yeah - Moore has chosen Highland Reel. Best price 5/1 now. Dead 8 runners now with Pleascach out.

Bateman

At the prices I think I’ll be on Storm the Stars, not impossible for him to make up the distance on what looks a very short fav

Zarkandar

Doing the old reliable for an Irish Derby, AOB 1-2-3

1. Highland Reel
2. Giovanni Canneletto
3. Kilmanjaro

Should make a nice tricast/trifecta

diomed

Storm The Stars at 11s

tryfix

I've settled on Qualify at @10/1. With the 3lb sex allowance she's only 2lb behind the favourite Jack Hobbs on the ratings and Jack Hobbs 119 may be a little overrated because he was well beaten by Golden Horn while Qualify 114 was staying on well when she beat the 115 rated Legatissimo in the Oaks.

If her Oaks win wasn't a freak result then at more than 10 times the price of Jack Hobbs she's a fair bet to nail him near the line as he tends to run out of steam at the end of a race and she gets going then.

Who's going to make the pace, Jockey bookings make it look like Kilimanjaro will be making the pace, but he doesn't look like he's fast enough to front run? Radanpour made the running the last day but it didn't work out all that well for him as he just won that day. Don't think O'Brien will want a dawdle where Jack Hobbs sets sail for home off an easy pace.

Johner

Johner wrote: »

Jack Hobbs looks a class above that lot, should win easily.

Easy peasy.

tryfix

Lovely looking horse that winner. A repeat of Epsom's running and O'Brien's 3yo staying colts ain't proper 3yo Gp1 winning material.

The French Derby form took a few hits today.

diomed

I always thought horses were inconsistent. The Irish Derby result was a photocopy of the Epsom Derby result. My good news was I didn't has a bet. I'm still licking my wounds after Storm The Stars at 80s and Jack Hobbs at 15s at Epsom.
Golden Horn would have had his hands full with Jacks Hobbs if he ran in today's race. Jack Hobbs isn't going backwards. Perhaps the fillies are not better than the colts?

Gregk961

Wierd consistency to the middle distance colts this year. That certainly makes Golden Horn look like the second coming or else Jack Hobbs improved. I do have doubts that GH would have won that race but its impossible to say.

The Eclipse is going to be a cracker if The Grey Gatsby shows up.

tryfix

Gregk961 wrote: »

Wierd consistency to the middle distance colts this year. That certainly makes Golden Horn look like the second coming or else Jack Hobbs improved. I do have doubts that GH would have won that race but its impossible to say.

The Eclipse is going to be a cracker if The Grey Gatsby shows up.

Golden Horn gave Storm The Stars, Giovanni Canaletto and Kilimanjaro bigger beatings the last day than Jack Hobbs did today. He's a better stayer than Jack Hobbs and took a while to get going at Epsom which makes him look like a proper 12f Arc horse to me rather than being a 10f horse who happens to get 12f.

jimjamcos

Gregk961 wrote: »

Wierd consistency to the middle distance colts this year. That certainly makes Golden Horn look like the second coming or else Jack Hobbs improved. I do have doubts that GH would have won that race but its impossible to say.

The Eclipse is going to be a cracker if The Grey Gatsby shows up.

Golden Horn is a monster. You can tell that just from how Dettori, Buick and Gosden speak of him. Gosdon has openly stated he's the better animal since before the Dante. JH, good as he is, will not be reversing the form.

Johner

Two serious animals, always looked like Jack Hobbs had a lot more to learn but still think Golden Horn will have his measure.

rule supreme

Its just a pity they have the same trainer because they might not run against each other again .Maybe in the arc .

diomed

Being a contrary sort I'll be looking for something other than Golden Horn in the Eclipse. Golden Horn's Epsom Derby form is franked so he only has to turn up to win. And Golden Horn is even more suited to 10f than 12f. His odds will be tiny.
I've been surprised before.