UK leaving the EU, implications on Republic/Northern Ireland trade

Jim Simmental

If the UK does the leave the European Union, what kind of implications could this possibly this have on Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland trade.

Will the see the setting up of border controls, and will duty have to be paid on items bought in Northern Ireland brought into the Republic, and or vicea versa ?.

Just a thought as this could possibly benefit Irish businesses based in border counties affected by cross border shopping (maybe not an issue at the minute, with the sterling being quite strong at the moment).

Maybe someone else might have a more clearer idea what might happen then on cross border trade, if the UK is to pull out of theEU.

Letree

I don't see it being as big an issue as people make out. Both the EU and the UK will still want to trade with each other as they do now.

View

It is unclear about what would happen as this is still very much a hypothetical situation. What would happen would largely depend on negotiations but we can say, that in the absence of some
sort of settlement that would have the UK accepting a huge chunk of EU rules:

A) a UK exit would put it outside the EU custom's union and hence we would need to apply strict customs controls on our borders with the UK in order to apply & collect the common EU customs tariffs on imports from the non-EU UK, and,
we would probably have to accede to Schengen fairly promptly given our commitments under TEU article 3.2 and the fact that the CTA opt-out protocol is very much written on the assumption that both the UK & Ireland are EU members. Should the UK leave then IMO the protocol is basically void and I can't see how we could expect it to continue politically speaking given our commitment under TEU article 3 to:

2.The Union shall offer its citizens an area of freedom, security and justice without internal frontiers, in which the free movement of persons is ensured in conjunction with appropriate measures with respect to external border controls, asylum, immigration and the prevention and combating of crime.

Hence, we should expect to have "proper" border controls on our borders with the UK unless there's a rabbit out of the hat with the UK leaving the EU and immediately acceding to the EEA and Schengen (and that presumably is very unlikely).

amcalester

Don't we have a free trade agreement with the UK that prinvolvement membership of the EU?

View

amcalester wrote: »

Don't we have a free trade agreement with the UK that prinvolvement membership of the EU?

Not that I am aware of and our commitments under the EU Treaties "trump" any such agreement.

We can't pretend we are a pre-EC Ireland and a full-EU Ireland at the same time.

glacial_pace71

Schengen isn't an EU arrangement per se but in effect it applies on account of the number of EU member-states adopting it.

The Common Travel Area might then still survive in some format but it'd be difficult to conceive how they could find the legal definitions necessary. I recall a High Court judge once commenting upon the Joe Heller/Catch 22 nature of the
need to use an Irish or British passport to prove that you're not from an area outside the Common Travel Area.

The loss of some industrial jobs in Great Britain, e.g. car manufacturers, won't see any great benefit to Ireland. However, some of the UK defence industries, e.g. Bombardier, Shorts and other aerospace companies, may well lose out as various NATO projects become EU projects. The loss of financial services would be most likely to Frankfurt than to the IFSC, and wouldn't have a North-South dimension either.

Overall though the effect will be overwhelmingly negative: I spent hours waiting to cross an EU border between Hungary and Serbia. If anything similar applies it'll destroy Larne as a port and will hand a lot of power back to Dublin port officials re the delivery of goods to the Republic.

View

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

Schengen isn't an EU arrangement per se

Schengen is now an Integral part of the EU Treaties having been subsumed into themin the Treaty of Amsterdam. It is THE implementation of TEU Article 3.2 that I quoted above. It has also been extended to non-EU members though so perhaps that could apply to a non-EU UK were they willing to accept EU rules.

glacial_pace71

View wrote: »

Schengen is now an Integral part of the EU Treaties having been subsumed into themin the Treaty of Amsterdam. It is THE implementation of TEU Article 3.2 that I quoted above. It has also been extended to non-EU members though so perhaps that could apply to a non-EU UK were they willing to accept EU rules.

Ha ha, thanks for that. It's quite true. Could you imagine the bitter irony of the UK leaving the EU and losing its existing Schengen exemption in order to form some sort of UK-EU agreement, in which - over time - the UK would eventually need to have the same Schengen membership status as Iceland, Norway and Switzerland?

ardmacha

Any harrassment of people crossing the border would be a complete breach of faith of the peace process and could only lead to NI falling back into chaos.

Richard

ardmacha wrote: »

Any harrassment of people crossing the border would be a complete breach of faith of the peace process and could only lead to NI falling back into chaos.

There's "harassment" as you put it already - people on busses being stopped south of the border, being asked for ID.

There won't be much change in this in the event of "Brexit". As long as the CTA remains, the republic doesn't have to join Schengen. That's true regardless of UK EU membership.

Having said that, it looks increasingly likely that the UK won't leave the EU.

Sheldons Brain

I think the idea of border controls is fanciful and the Irish government should not even entertain this idea.

KingBrian2

Not preferable but not calamitous either. The whole English Scottish dynamic is very interesting though.

View

Richard wrote: »

There's "harassment" as you put it already - people on busses being stopped south of the border, being asked for ID.

There won't be much change in this in the event of "Brexit". As long as the CTA remains, the republic doesn't have to join Schengen. That's true regardless of UK EU membership.

Having said that, it looks increasingly likely that the UK won't leave the EU.

What the EU treaties states is that under EU law both the UK and Ireland have an opt-out on Schengen. The UK's is absolute (under EU law). Ireland's is conditional on the CTA being maintained (which means should the UK decide to end the CTA we are obliged to apply Schengen) and we get the same as the UK (under EU law) with the exception of the absolute nature of our opt-out.

Should the UK leave then the UK opt-out under EU law is void (as it doesn't apply since the UK would have no rights or obligations under EU law as a non-member) and our conditionality collapses - as we get the same right as the UK to their opt-out under EU law, namely, none whatsoever.

As I have already pointed out TEU article 3.2 is fairly explicit. An opt-out for two EU member states who aren't ready to join Schengen just yet is one thing as it isn't necessarily incompatible with article 3.2; asking for a (new) opt-out - as the old one would be legally worthless - so you can favour non-EU citizens over EU citizens is a different kettle of fish.

View

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

I think the idea of border controls is fanciful and the Irish government should not even entertain this idea.

I think you'll find that the other member states don't regard them as fanciful at all. Poland, for instance, had to strengthen its border controls with the Ukraine where there are large historic Polish communities - in what way is that any less fanciful then us doing so with the UK?

ZeroThreat

ardmacha wrote: »

Any harrassment of people crossing the border would be a complete breach of faith of the peace process and could only lead to NI falling back into chaos.

Well the main central powers of Europe (ie. Germany and France) have so often displayed their total disdain for Ireland, its culture & people in the past I'm sure they wouldn't give a hoot if it caused a full scale civil war here. (unlikely I know)

They'd probably try to make a quick buck on any instability by selling arms to one side or the other (just like the Germans with Croatia during the disintegration of Yugoslavia).

KingBrian2

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Well the main central powers of Europe (ie. Germany and France) have so often displayed their total disdain for Ireland, its culture & people in the past I'm sure they wouldn't give a hoot if it caused a full scale civil war here. (unlikely I know)

They'd probably try to make a quick buck on any instability by selling arms to one side or the other (just like the Germans with Croatia during the disintegration of Yugoslavia).

This is a very down attitude to have towards the two biggest members of the EU. Lets not forget Germany spends a lot in the EU while France does the driving. Nations like Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark and even Britain complain heavily about the structures of the EU but don't dare advocate consensus building proposals. They like the warmth and benefits of Europe just not the sums that are needed to keep it up to date and for delivering better services. They are all lets expand to turn the EU into the next USA with all control going the big states direction.

Sheldons Brain

View wrote: »

I think you'll find that the other member states don't regard them as fanciful at all. Poland, for instance, had to strengthen its border controls with the Ukraine where there are large historic Polish communities - in what way is that any less fanciful then us doing so with the UK?

Poland and the Ukraine were separated by a fence for 45 years, there has always been border controls there since 1945 when the Polish population was expelled from Ukraine. This is quite different from introducing them on this island where they have never existed, quite apart from the 6 counties going back into the chaos, as noted above.

I don't think any of this is likely, but it should not be countenanced.

murphaph

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Poland and the Ukraine were separated by a fence for 45 years, there has always been border controls there since 1945 when the Polish population was expelled from Ukraine. This is quite different from introducing them on this island where they have never existed, quite apart from the 6 counties going back into the chaos, as noted above.

I don't think any of this is likely, but it should not be countenanced.

There were customs controls between the Free State (later RoI) and NI right from 1922 until we all joined the EEC together.

I agree that it would be a bad idea to reinstate them and I have at least some faith in the EU that it would recognise the sensitive nature of that border and would not in fact force Ireland into Schengen without the UK. Treaties can be amended to allow this if needs be. The CTA could remain with spot checks on customs. Switzerland is in Schengen so you can freely cross the border without stopping from Germany but the customs can stop you and see if you've just bought yourself a new flat screen TV in cheaper Germany.

All this is unlikely IMO. I don't see the UK leaving the EU but I do hope they can push through some long overdue reforms. They would have (at least the quiet) support of most Germans. Indeed it would be somewhat of a disaster for Germany if the UK left.

Sheldons Brain

murphaph wrote: »

All this is unlikely IMO. I don't see the UK leaving the EU but I do hope they can push through some long overdue reforms. They would have (at least the quiet) support of most Germans. Indeed it would be somewhat of a disaster for Germany if the UK left.

There are many countries that would support reform. Unfortunately Britain's bull in a china shop approach is not great for getting allies.

murphaph

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

There are many countries that would support reform

Are there? Why hasn't it happened yet then? I think the northern European countries would like reform (well the citizens at least) but that's about it. Germany has a "position of dignity" to maintain because of their inherited guilt over WWII. They cannot be seen to be overtly aggressive and would sooner pay a few quid more into the pot than go head to head with France over, say CAP reform.

murphaph

murphaph wrote: »

Are there? Why hasn't it happened yet then? I think the northern European countries would like reform (well the citizens at least) but that's about it.

The weekend papers were brimming with leaks and explicit statements out of European chancelleries which said that they could accommodate some of the British reforms. Presumably, some would even be welcome: Cameron's insistence on liberal economic reforms are said to have gone down rather well in Berlin and probably Holland too; and insistence on a level playing-field for EA and non-EA members in the single market is also well-received in Sweden, Denmark and Central Europe.

In many ways, the UK's immigration panic is contrived, and conceding a sop to a contrived crisis shouldn't be beyond the collective capability of EU leaderships.

Richard

View wrote: »

Should the UK leave then the UK opt-out under EU law is void

But the Irish opt-out wouldn't be. In any case, other non-member states are mentioned in EU treaties. The CTA already includes non-EU members, namely the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey.

The Irish Schengen opt-out is conditional on the CTA, not on UK EU membership. Obviously if the CTA ceased to exist, that'd be a different matter.

andrew

The FT have an interesting article about this here [alternatively, google 'Possibility of ‘Brexit’ threatens London’s prospects' and click the first link].

Apparently:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are among those hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst by considering Ireland as a “Brexit” option. Dublin’s attractions for foreign banks include its low corporate tax rate, English speaking population, English-style legal system and eurozone membership. The International Financial Services Centre was established in Dublin in 1987 and it now hosts more than 500 companies employing 32,700 people and contributing €2.1bn to the Irish exchequer

Certaintly, I've heard that Frankfurt is a pretty grim place to live. So maybe Brexit would be slightly beneficial. the article also says that

These moves raise the question of whether Ireland would be able to cope with an influx of foreign banking activities from the UK. It has nothing like the regulatory, accounting and legal infrastructure that has built up to support the banks in London, or even Paris and Frankfurt. US banks that have looked seriously at moving some operations to Ireland reckon that if they moved their European corporate deposit books to the country, they would be big enough to be regulated by the ECB rather than the Central Bank of Ireland

Oldenboard

Fighting non-tariff barriers and achieving a common market in services requires more European integration - http://iitm.be/notBrexit - In case of Brexit the UK’s influential elites will lobby Westminster to protect their industries and that would be bad for Ireland.

KingBrian2

Not worried about Britain leaving since they already gave up when offered entry to the € they said no. More concerned about what the UK wants out of Europe, they keep pushing Europe in a more American direction. London supports France's insane ideas about the middle east, that whole region which Britain and France should be keeping well away from unless they want to add something that won't make the region any more volatile.

Jim2007

David Cameron accepts EU treaty change delay

Mr Cameron has instead argued for an "irreversible lock" and "legally binding" guarantees that EU law will be changed at some point in the future, says the BBC's Nick Robinson.

So we're entering the land of make believe! The French, Danish and Irish governments can only give a commitment to put treaty change to their respective electorates at some future date with not guarantee that it will be accepted.