Carlow Kilkenny - How's it looking?

Black Menorca

Icouldn't find a thread on this yet. apologies if there is one already.

Carlow boxes open and Tallies suggest a slender lead for FF.

Will Kilkenny keep Aylward ahead to the end?

Chips Lovell

It's tight according to the Irish Times:

According to tally figures, he [Aylward) has 24 per cent, followed by Fine Gael’s David Fitzgerald at 20 per cent.

Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion is at 18 per cent, Labour’s William Quinn is at 11 per cent, while Renua Ireland’s Patrick McKee is at 9 per cent.

Depends on where the transfers go. Quinn's and McKees could go to Fitzgerald, but where the SF ones go is anyone's idea.

Black Menorca

Thats an excelleny SF result. should guarantee them a seat ext year.

11% for Labout, given the grilling they've gone through isn't half bad either.

RENUA (boo hiss ) have done decent on 10%. An ex FF'er could be vital for Aylward.

josip

Will transfers be more influenced by geographic location than by party ideology?

Black Menorca

josip wrote: »

Will transfers be more influenced by geographic location than by party ideology?

AFAIK the candidates are mostly from Kilkenny, so the KK vote will be split up. therefore geographical vote won't be as strong.

I'm still shaking my head at Renua getting 10%. I thought they'd be doing well on 5%. Maybe the candidate is particularly strong?

PaulKK

Black Menorca wrote: »

I'm still shaking my head at Renua getting 10%. I thought they'd be doing well on 5%. Maybe the candidate is particularly strong?

He's a popular young candidate and ex ff.

josip

When is the first count expected?
They're usually one of the last with results in a General Election.

Black Menorca

josip wrote: »

When is the first count expected?
They're usually one of the last with results in a General Election.

Surely there's a first count by now?

PaulKK

Bobby Aylward ff 18572
David Fitzgerald fg 13744
Kathleen Funchion sf 10806
Breda Gardner 2792
Daithi Holohan 374 (eliminated)
Elizabeth Hourihane 215 (eliminated)
Conor MacLiam aaa 2194
Patrick McKee renua 6365
Malcolm Noonan greens 3549
Peter O'Loughlin identity ire 930 (eliminated)
Willie Quinn labour 4673
Adrienne Wallace pbp 2377
Noel G Walsh 243 (eliminated)

Quota is approx 33k

votecounts

game over,
FIANNA FAIL GAIN

Black Menorca

Very interesting given the higher than normal turnout.

FF very strong performance on first count. McGuiness won't be happy.

Good signs for SF and Labour.

Black Menorca

Congratulations to Bobby Aylward and FF. Quite a comfortable victory in the end. Considering the higher than usual potential Liberal vote, FF will be buzzing that they seem to have shed a lot of the toxicity associated with them in the last GE.

glacial_pace71

FF certainly seem to be more transfer-friendly than in the past few elections.

However, Alyward represents a revival of an 'old guard' that Martin wanted to hide away like some sort of 'Embarrassing Alcoholic Uncle at the family wedding'.
Anti-FF-but-notionally-FF McGuinness must be sickened. He's huffed, he's puffed, he's sweamed and sweeaamed and scweeamed until he's sick and yet the 'NOTICE ME' still only produces a shrug. As a semi-detached FF side-show it may even be in Mewhole's best interests to run a Carlow-based third candidate in the constituency in the General Election, in the expectation of 28-30% translating into 2 seats, with a local bloodbath deciding the musical chairs between 3 candidates.
For FG? A 20% figure means that 3 seats is impossible, but once Hogan took the EU money and ran it was unlikely they'd manage anything other than 2 seats. (Bear in mind that historically it was a 2 FF, 2 FG 1 Labour constituency for much of its existence).
For SF? Funchion is not one of their top-tier candidates but, hey, no blood on the hands. 16% is a quota in a 5 seater. Even allowing for some bigger political beasts of sitting TDs running in the General Election there should still be enough. Worrying how little of the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea (sorry People before Profit and Anti-Austerity Alliance) transfers went to SF.
Renua's 7.5%? An opportunistic defector, impatient to get on, regardless of the badge he wears. Then again didn't the ex-FF Gibbon chap take a seat once for the PDs? There's potential there for a non FF/FG centre-right candidate but probably not in that candidate.
Labour's 7%? a half-quota. These are the situations in which they could lose more than 20-30 seats, finishing as the 6th candidate in 5 seaters or the 5th candidate in 4 seaters. Phelan might have a bigger personal vote but what if the Carlow vote doesn't transfer across county boundaries? There have been Labour gains/losses to the Greens for the past 1 1/2 decades but this time it looks too difficult for either to capture the 5th seat.
Reading anything I'd say 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF in a General Election.

Black Menorca

Very nice summation.

I'd not be surprised if McGuiness is tempted to join Renua. Much better fit for his particular extreme economic views.

glacial_pace71

Black Menorca wrote: »

Very nice summation.

I'd not be surprised if McGuiness is tempted to join Renua. Much better fit for his particular extreme economic views.

His views are more opportunistic than ideological. I'm probably showing my age here but I remember the whole 'Drumcree' mess, in which McGuinness managed to claim victim status: the local Gardaí pointed out that there was probably some minor incident of local vandalism but McG was carrying peeled onions in his pocket to provide the mournful 'victim' expression and the ridiculous implication that his company had been targeted on account of North-South trade.
If anything it's better that he continues to be re-elected, an exhibit of so much that's wrong with Irish political culture. I personally wanted the 'Abbeylara' judgment to be overturned by referendum and for Oireachtas committees to have proper powers of investigation but, when I was living in the UK at the time, I actually refrained from coming home to vote when I saw the opportunistic clowns who'd turn the Dáil Public Account Committee into an 'ambulance chasing' exercise.
Interesting times ahead though for FF, FG, Labour and SF based on those sort of numbers. There wasn't an Independent Day surge either, so it looks like that might play out as perhaps 10-15 serious local contests rather than the 30+ constituencies that were labelled as being potentially Independent-friendly.

Black Menorca

I've had boots in FF and Lab camps on different local issues. FF through family connections and Lab more recently (last 7-8 years).

Labour seem quite confident they can keep most of their Dublin seats, once public sector sees effects of pay restoration and ne more welfare friendly budget.

The marriage vote has done wonders for their PR also with the likes of John Lyons coming across very well indeed.

FF are concentrating on building on their regional base. a result like this will give them huge confidence. they could quite possible double their seat numbers to mid-late 30s.

FF and FG share a common hatred of SF and I thick the unthinkable coalition is a probability in 2016 with Labour playing a spare tyre role.

golfball37

Nobody in the media picked up on the fact with the newly registered voters voting in this it was interesting to see SF and Indpendents vote share break 40% in what is a traditional rural Ireland constituency.

The combined vote of both in 2011 in CW/KK was 14%.

It only further strengthens my view that FF/FG will eventually be flushed out by the generations coming.