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Apres Vote Comments & Analysis

  • 23-05-2015 10:08am
    #1
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,550 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Now that the voting and canvassing is done, Im trying to move the comments and analysis to this new thread.

    My prelimiary thoughts - it seems that the fear that the silent no voters could swing it. In the end they didnt materialise but there appears to have been a lot of silent yes voters. Could be more than 60% yes across the country


Comments

  • #2
    Peregrine
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 26,403 Mod ✭✭✭✭Peregrine


    Overall, the strong Yes in some urban areas should carry it well over 60%.

    I'm surprised by the low turnout in some rural areas.


  • #3
    Eugene Norman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    Possibly higher. It's 66% YES tallies in some constituencies in rural areas.

    The shy No we're never going to swing it even if it existed. In the UK the main parties were assumed to be about 33% each going in, a 3% either way swing got about 37% to 31% to the Tories.

    You wouldn't notice that here. If the polls predicted 65-35 and it was 68-32 or 62-38 you'd say the polls are accurate enough.


  • #4
    purplecow1977
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭purplecow1977


    Very surprised by some of the low turnouts. About 20% in some areas


  • #5
    mark_79
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 153 ✭✭mark_79


    purplecow1977 wrote: »
    Very surprised by some of the low turnouts. About 20% in some areas

    Maybe first world problems weren't top of their agenda.


  • #6
    Jelle1880
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Jelle1880


    I never thought it would be as close as some said it would be.

    +60% is great, hope it's a lot bigger to eradicate any doubt.


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  • #7
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,550 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    purplecow1977 wrote: »
    Very surprised by some of the low turnouts. About 20% in some areas

    But higher in other places. it was a good turnout overall, and even if its not the highest percentage turnout, more people voted in this referendum than in any previous one.


  • #8
    Black Menorca
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭Black Menorca


    The big question will be can we harness the new voters and keep them interested for general politics and not make them one referendum wonders.


  • #9
    Floppybits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,842 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Black Menorca wrote: »
    The big question will be can we harness the new voters and keep them interested for general politics and not make them one referendum wonders.

    I don't think so. All these new voters were just voting on the one thing and now that this has been achieved they will sail off into the sunset never to darken a polling booth again.


  • #10
    Black Menorca
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭Black Menorca


    Floppybits wrote: »
    I don't think so. All these new voters were just voting on the one thing and now that this has been achieved they will sail off into the sunset never to darken a polling booth again.

    Such a shame is that is true and they turn their backs on their future civic responsibilities.


  • #11
    endacl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,412 ✭✭✭✭endacl


    purplecow1977 wrote: »
    Very surprised by some of the low turnouts. About 20% in some areas

    The obvious presumption is that no voters presumed the campaign was lost, and what's the point?

    The SF bump in the by election us interesting. It matches the usual differences between their pre-election poll results and ballot count. Young voters who say they'd vote SF but don't usually vote finding themselves in the polling station for the referendum perhaps?


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  • #12
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,184 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    endacl wrote: »
    The SF bump in the by election us interesting. It matches the usual differences between their pre-election poll results and ballot count. Young voters who say they'd vote SF but don't usually vote finding themselves in the polling station for the referendum perhaps?

    Funchion has a name locally that would boost her above the national percentage.


  • #13
    endacl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,412 ✭✭✭✭endacl


    L1011 wrote: »
    Funchion has a name locally that would boost her above the national percentage.

    Sorry. For clarity, it's the local numbers I was referring to.


  • #14
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,184 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    endacl wrote: »
    Sorry. For clarity, it's the local numbers I was referring to.

    Was there a local poll done in advance?

    It would have been very, very easy to miss in other coverage if there was, but I didn't see one.


  • #15
    endacl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,412 ✭✭✭✭endacl


    L1011 wrote: »
    Was there a local poll done in advance?

    It would have been very, very easy to miss in other coverage if there was, but I didn't see one.

    Not sure. For further clarity, I was referring to the trends in polls carried out in previous elections.

    I really need to be clearer first time round...

    :embarrassed:


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