Thursday 21/5

sdoc13

Just the Tonic 17 45 Ayr

His 4 most recent wins have come off marks of 72 to 62 most recently in Oct 13. Runs off 58 tomorrow. Has won over 7f on Good to Soft. Versatile in terms of going. Has run twice this season and showed significant improvement on his last run when beaten 2.8l into 6th of 9 runners. Has dropped 10 lbs from a mark of 68 at the end off last season and I think he is well in. 8/1 currently with Betfair and I have had the max I am aloud but unfortunately restricted. Have topped up with Bet365 at 15/2 for 3 pts total.

TheFense

Mallards in Flight 8:25 Clonmel

One for me, grabbed one of alan sweetmans picks from RP. As ever RP write up paints a glorious picture. To sumize, she has 2 wins and 2 seconds out of 4 starts over fences she's rated 116 over fenses, doesn't have a stellar record over hurdles, she pulled up last time in fairy house (testing conditions, January) but she's off a mark of 97 and does have some form from last season over hurdles when placing second to Gallant Oscar in Navan (November)

Follow me at your peril!

Any thoughts on my punt or your own appreciated!

Best of luck on your picks

kalinisi

Clonmel 7.25 Master Appeal, was 2nd fav for a big handicap hurdle last time out, settled out the back that day i think he found the jump to handicap company from maidens a bit hot, this is easier, claimer takes off 7 (anybody rate this young lad?) so having a few quid e/w on this at 14s (was on a board years ago and one of the lads had a great line into kielys, jaysus if only i could remember the site!)

Clonmel 7.55 show and go, ran well on handicap debut, finished 4th beaten 8 lengths, 10/1 is a fair price , in e/w again, going for an andrew lynch double....

Mostly Harmless

Apart from Sleep Easy in the 7.00 at Sandown (value now gone) there are a few that I like tomorrow:

GOODWOOD
3:50 - Firmament (9/1 BetVictor)
4:25 - Lady of Dubai (3/1 William Hill)

SANDOWN
6:25 - Critical Risk (10/3 BetVictor)

NOTTINGHAM
7:15 - Heartsong (10/1 Coral)

My boss is off tomorrow so I should be able to write some reasoning when at work in the morning.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

GOODWOOD
3:50 - Firmament (9/1 BetVictor)
4:25 - Lady of Dubai (3/1 William Hill)

SANDOWN
6:25 - Critical Risk (10/3 BetVictor)

NOTTINGHAM
7:15 - Heartsong (10/1 Coral)

Firmament ran in some decent maidens last year such as when 2 lengths behind the subsequent G3 winner Master Apprentice. He shaped with promise on his seasonal debut despite looking to need the outing and staying on well late on, he now steps up a bit in trip and it looks likely to suit - his dam twice won the Dahlia Stakes over this distance of 9 furlongs. Looks a hot race with lots of the top yards represented so just a small bet.
0.5pts Win

The Height of Fashion stakes does not look particularly strong on paper and I think the fav has to be take on at the prices after a no show in the Guineas. Lady of Dubai looks like very solid value to me as the form of her last run last season is working out very nicely - just behind Irish Rookie who has since run with credit in both English and French Guineas. The rest of the field have a good bit to prove and would need to take a big step forward to trouble the front two in the market. Provided Luca Cumani has her somewhere near full fitness I think she should be much closer to the fav on the prices.
1.5pts Win

The form of Critical Risk's last two runs in maidens last season look very strong, with several runners now rated in the 90s or treble figures. He got the job done very nicely on his seasonal debut and is 3lbs well in today under a penalty. Meehan's usually progress from their first run of the season and Richard Hughes looks to be a significant jockey booking who is likely to suit the horse's running style. There's a few potential dangers in here but I doubt there is anything as well handicapped as my selection.
2pts Win

Heartsong is a mare that I really like and she is still potentially well handicapped on the best of her historic form. She produced a good performance lto at Brighton despite the ground being unsuitably firm. Should get more suitable ground today and has won twice at Nottingham before.
1pt Win

shamdrog63

Rockweiller 16.00 Ayr is down to a winning mark mainly because he,s been running badly but he has a great record at Ayr, winning twice and a third in 3 runs.He,s won there having been last in his previous race so clearly loves it there and has a capable apprentice taking a few pounds off.He,s a small e/w bet for me.I also like Our Folly who,s down to a winable mark in the 3.15 at Goodwood.Just a couple of suggestions!!

superfurry1

Five picks seemed to work yesterday

Goodwood

2.10 Welford 11-1
2.40 Major Crispies 20-1 ew
3.15 Fitzwilly 8-1

Wetherby

2.00 Soeur de Rois 16-1 ew
2.30 War Lord 7-1

One winner will do piggy

PM me nudes

Nice to see the horses I followed when I first started watching racing having foals at the breeze ups now!

TheFense

superfurry1 wrote: »

Five picks seemed to work yesterday

Goodwood

2.10 Welford 11-1
2.40 Major Crispies 20-1 ew
3.15 Fitzwilly 8-1

Wetherby

2.00 Soeur de Rois 16-1 ew
2.30 War Lord 7-1

One winner will do piggy

Took on Fitzwilly, great call!
Where you tracking him?

Cheers!

Luap

Looked in trouble, but a good steering job from the 7lb claimer.

posturingpat

Ayr 5.10 Russian Realm and Nottingham 7.45 Shahdaroba both expected to oblige this evening,im having 2 singles and a double, gliyf

PM me nudes

Have info that Franshawe's in the 5.00 Goodwood will be a Ribblesdale filly and will win today

Mostly Harmless

PM me nudes wrote: »

Have info that Franshawe's in the 5.00 Goodwood will be a Ribblesdale filly and will win today

Been in my tracker since her debut run and the form looks better now than it did at the time.

Would be quite concerned about the form of the yard though.

superfurry1

TheFense wrote: »

Took on Fitzwilly, great call!
Where you tracking him?

Cheers!

One winner will do Liked fitzwilly from hurdling last year say will have a few wins in him this year and when a channon horse gets backed its always a good sign

DyldeBrill

One I fancy today is Clounts Meadow in the 6.15 Clonmel at 7/1 e/w. Very open race this in which I think the biggest danger will be Theatre Flame and will be interesting to see how it performs with Davy Russell on board.

Another horse I like the look of is Lucky Pat in the 7.25 Clonmel. Running off top weight but will definitely be the one to beat after an impressive win last week at Kilbeggan.

superfurry1

Think i might just follow JJ burke tonight at clonmel easy

PM me nudes

PM me nudes wrote: »

Have info that Franshawe's in the 5.00 Goodwood will be a Ribblesdale filly and will win today

Thought she was going to go away and win easy but at least she won anyway! Nice drift to 9/4 as well

Trouble in P

Good info, thanks for that

michael999999

Excellent.

Thanks for that. Using theTen euro free bet makes it even better!

PM me nudes

Sportingbet not paying BOG doesnt make it sweeter

Mostly Harmless

PM me nudes wrote: »

Sportingbet not paying BOG doesnt make it sweeter

Not to worry, they'll restrict your account to pennies now that you've backed a winner

PM me nudes

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not to worry, they'll restrict your account to pennies now that you've backed a winner

Opened the account solely to back this. Doubt I'll be betting with them again anyway

posturingpat

Russian Realm beating by the stablemate. Rancid stuff. And it was a relative of O' Mearas that i got the word from. Bad state of affairs when you're giving your family bum info. :mad:

DyldeBrill

sickened there thought it was all to play for until it fell at the last. ball fall that too hope jockey is ok

Mostly Harmless

Ah here... Critical Risk dead heats

Sirtoyou

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Ah here... Critical Risk dead heats

I thought he was chinned so I'll gladly take it.

Mostly Harmless

Sirtoyou wrote: »

I thought he was chinned so I'll gladly take it.

I thought Richard Hughes covered far more ground than necessary and then possibly got a bit complacent when he hit the front, the other one fought back well in fairness

Sirtoyou

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

I thought Richard Hughes covered far more ground than necessary and then possibly got a bit complacent when he hit the front, the other one fought back well in fairness

That's my read as well, I was cursing Hughes as my gut said he was beaten.

Mostly Harmless

Not got a clue what will win it but the next race at Sandown looks very hot and should produce a lot of future winners

Johner

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not got a clue what will win it but the next race at Sandown looks very hot and should produce a lot of future winners

Really interested to see how Richard Of Yorke goes.

Mostly Harmless

Jaysus... Another dead heat I think?

EDIT: Maybe not