Stone Of Folca Day

Francie Barrett

Stone Of Folca goes tomorrow in the 2:30 and I think it is the best bet I have seen in quite some time. 3/1 not an amazing price by any means but I consider it all too generous considering what this horse did just a few days ago when it got pipped to the post by Rufford, a horse that finished 2nd in a group race 2 years back and was once rated as high as 108. The best horse that Folca goes up against tomorrow has been nearly 2 stone off that kind of rating ever. The only way I see Folca losing tomorrow is if we get a serious amount of rain, or if the horse makes a balls out out of the start.

BorneTobyWilde

SUEGIO 14-1 EW 3.10
With 4 to place I think this can go close. Won this last year.

AstraOwner

The horse that beat him last time out is now a long way from a Group 2 animal. That 2yo Group 2 he ran in didn't work out and the 108 was clearly too high for him.

Stone of Folca always excelled over the minimum trip on fast ground. He was actually in the Guinness Book of Records for the fastest UK race time after the Epsom Dash on very fast ground in 2012. He'd be more suited to 4f than 6f.
6f at Brighton on good, good to soft in places with more rain due tonight wouldn't be his thing. There's also pretty strong winds forecasted in the UK tomorrow. Make sure it's not a headwind.

But he's on a great mark and he will certainly be winning his races shortly. I'd even excuse the ground and trip tomorrow because of his rating and make him my fancy. The opposition isn't up to much. But I'd hesitate from calling him a best bet in a long time.

STB.

That Investec Dash @ Epsom is a long way back when he popped up at 50/1. Its hard to believe that the horse hasnt won since June 2012 and has dropped accordingly. I think you started the thread sometime before Christmas about Best's well handicapped horses, Francie. If you check out Best's sharp rise from the doldrums at the start of the year through March and April, he hopped from 0 to a +35 to a level stake. His runners to winners ratio with 4yr+ is driving this. There must have been problems with this horse as he has not withstood much racing in recent years. Having said that I saw his last race and he looked home and hosed the last time only to be nailed very late by the gambled on Carter horse. Infact I have my own private views on that particular race.

Copper_pipe

Passing this on

Silverwings 2:10 Chester 11/4


Owner said after the race it would win at Chester if got a low draw. Drawn 1. At Chester that's a huge advantage for a 5 furlong race.Front runner too. Will blast out and round the sharp bends. They'll struggle to catch it. Form line "Broke well, raced towards near side rail, made all, shaken up over 1f out, well in command final furlong, stayed on well"

Chester over 5 Furlongs has the most well known draw bias in the country. Obviously you need to be drawn low but you also need a horse with early speed to make use of a good draw. As you would expect the bigger the field the more important it is to be drawn low, as our stats show no horse has won a handicap at Chester in the last 5 years from the top half of the draw when their has been 11 or more runners.

the groutch

my concern with that race is that Astley Hall in 3 veered to the left out of the stalls on his debut, and if doing the same could leave your selection pegged in.

BorneTobyWilde

Heart Song 12-1 ew 2.30
This has good turf form over this distance last year,winning twice and placing twice.
It can grab a place here I think. Trainer has good record around here.

the groutch

3:20 Kelso Gibbstown, looks to still have improvement in him over the extreme trips and the trainer is shrewd enough with the horses he sends across the water.

Johnny_Fontane

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Passing this on

Silverwings 2:10 Chester 11/4


Owner said after the race it would win at Chester if got a low draw. Drawn 1. At Chester that's a huge advantage for a 5 furlong race.Front runner too. Will blast out and round the sharp bends. They'll struggle to catch it. Form line "Broke well, raced towards near side rail, made all, shaken up over 1f out, well in command final furlong, stayed on well"

Chester over 5 Furlongs has the most well known draw bias in the country. Obviously you need to be drawn low but you also need a horse with early speed to make use of a good draw. As you would expect the bigger the field the more important it is to be drawn low, as our stats show no horse has won a handicap at Chester in the last 5 years from the top half of the draw when their has been 11 or more runners.

cant believe how he edged ahead and then got headed. Jockey?

Jon Stark

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

cant believe how he edged ahead and then got headed. Jockey?

That's just the way it happens sometimes. It's not necessarily the jockey's fault, the filly was probably just more game on the day.

magicmoves

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Heart Song 12-1 ew 2.30
This has good turf form over this distance last year,winning twice and placing twice.
It can grab a place here I think. Trainer has good record around here.

Only two places on this race.

chipsdave

Think Silver wings ran out of steam when looking a sure winner , the missed break took it out of him , that camera angle too probably misleading.

shmeee

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Heart Song 12-1 ew 2.30
This has good turf form over this distance last year,winning twice and placing twice.
It can grab a place here I think. Trainer has good record around here.

Very unlucky, getting caught on the line.

Stone Of Folca was awful. Nothing went right.

magicmoves

Good shout on Heart Song 12-1 BorneTobyWilde )))

longshotvalue

shmeee wrote: »

Very unlucky, getting caught on the line.

Stone Of Folca was awful. Nothing went right.

Just watched that and the ground was no where near fast enough for him. Hell be winning soon, hopefully at a price..

shmeee

magicmoves wrote: »

Good shout on Heart Song 12-1 Shmeee

It was BorneTobyWilde :P

Race was just off when went to place bet on it and all.

AstraOwner

As I mentioned Stone of Folca needs 4f more than he needs 6f. Minumim trip on fast ground, same as he's needed throughout his career.
And I'm pretty sure there is a massive headwind there today as I feared. They even considered calling off the meeting a few hours ago. Times are slow and horses came from the back in the first two races.

Francie Barrett

That was a disaster. Strong head winds and ground that was more towards the soft side than good. Horse clearly hated the conditions and it was not at all surprising to see it tailed off. As Aidan says, there's a win in this horse...

shmeee

They said wind was across the track there on ATR and very strong. Not nice conditions.

AstraOwner

All the info was there last night Francie. Be more interesting when he gets his conditions and today's race won't do his price any harm.

AstraOwner

shmeee wrote: »

They said wind was across the track there on ATR and very strong. Not nice conditions.

I just got the track up on Google Maps last night and the forecasted and current wind direction. If as forecasted it's much more a headwind than a tail wind, though it's not exactly head on. The first couple of races would seem to back it up.

BorneTobyWilde

Thought Heartsong had it. So close but no victory.
Should score soon.

shmeee

Brighton has been abandoned due to heavy winds and mats lifting that are covering the road crossings. Dangerous for horses and jockeys.

Francie Barrett

AstraOwner wrote: »

I just got the track up on Google Maps last night and the forecasted and current wind direction. If as forecasted it's much more a headwind than a tail wind, though it's not exactly head on. The first couple of races would seem to back it up.

lol

nice aftertiming.

AstraOwner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

lol

nice aftertiming.

Well I did post this last night. It's hardly aftertiming.

Stone of Folca always excelled over the minimum trip on fast ground. He was actually in the Guinness Book of Records for the fastest UK race time after the Epsom Dash on very fast ground in 2012. He'd be more suited to 4f than 6f.
6f at Brighton on good, good to soft in places with more rain due tonight wouldn't be his thing. There's also pretty strong winds forecasted in the UK tomorrow. Make sure it's not a headwind.

I really think wind is the most underrated consideration in racing, and has a much greater affect than going in some cases. Why wouldn't it? It's very difficult to run into wind. I was interested in more horses than Stone of Folca at Brighton, of course I'm going to check which direction the strong forecasted winds are blowing.
You blame the wind above, but don't believe that I would check it beforehand? I don't get it.

FWIW I backed the horse last time out and have him in the tracker but didn't put a penny on today, for the reasons I outlined above. Being such a small field I thought maybe there wouldn't be any hiding places from the wind for others but it was still a longer distance than Stone of Folca would prefer on ground that doesn't suit and the wind would require stamina which he simply doesn't have.