What is ahead for all parties in the Dáil?

DavidRamsay99

The Fine Gael core vote is reasonably solid while those who defected from Fine Fáil were prepared to continue voting them while holding their noses.
Sinn Féin has hoovered up orphaned Fianna Fáil voters who have sworn come hell or high water to never vote for FF again as well as disaffected Labour voters who feel utterly betrayed by the party for its broken promises after the 2011 general election.
Renua simply seams to be a lifeboat by desperate right wing independents and Fine Gael dissidents to keep their seats.
PBP is the personality cult of Richard Boyd Barrett and as such is irrelevant.
The chief rivals for the leadership of the Irish Left Paul Murphy and Claire Daly have potential to carve themselves a party out of the alphabet soup of independents but the Irish Left is still a case of too many chiefs and not enough injuns.

The key to the tectonic plates in the Dáil is the leadership of Sinn Féin.
The sex abuse scandals, the Disappeared, the criminality of the IRA in the border regions, his continued denials about membership and his leadership of the Provos, his ambiguous attitude to the bombings, shooting, kneecappings etc during the Trouble will dog Adams as long as he is leader of Sinn Féin. These issues have the potential scupper Sinn Féin's chances of picking up transfers, of other parties form a coalition with the party and could bring down a coalition government including Sinn Féin if more muck is raked up.

Sinn Féin has been led by Adams for decades and it is obvious that when he goes as he must go some time in the near or distant future, McDonald or Doherty or someone else is going to seek the leadership of the party. This has the potential to split the movement in smithereens. McDonald is ex-FF and clearly would like to take the party in the direction of centre ground of Irish politics to take the place of Fianna Fáil. The new generation of upcoming Shinners want to delicately leave Adams behind but not in the process drop the various balls being juggled.

The armed struggle uncompromising republicans from the republican ghettos will inevitably be thrown under the bus for the sake of power. If the gunmen and bombers and hunger strikers haven't yet realised their sacrifice was for nothing or that they are an embarrassment they soon will. If and when Sinn Féin get into power the Mafia style operations on the border - fuel smuggling and cigarettes and other criminality - will be crushed ruthlessly as the Shinners do some spring cleaning. Adams, the Castro like leader, will be a very hard act to follow. If McDonald or Doherty or someone else emerges and proves to be nonentity the whole carefully constructed edifice of Shinner unity and loyalty would come crashing down.

Fine Gael is divided over going into government with Sinn Féin with Brian Hayes one of the most vocal opponents. There is also the question of coalition or a merger with Fianna Fáil. Shrewd Fianna Fáil types like Michael McGrath or Billy Kellegher who have leadership ambitions would use such a merger to launch a leadership coup to take over the leadership of a combined conservative party. Traditionalists like Eamon O'Cuiv would sooner merge with Sinn Féin than join with the hated Blueshirts. The obvious successor of Enda Kenny is Leo Varadkar who seems to be creating a Bertie style manner as he positions himself for Kenny's departure most likely after the next election.
Could Varadkar preside over a merge with Fianna Fáil or a loose political alliance against Sinn Féin?

Labour meanwhile is floundering. Joan Burton from the traditional wing of Labour has seen off the Stickie usurpers Gilmore and Rabbitte who took over the party after the old Democratic Left merged with Labour. But she waited too long, is reaching the end of her political career and ambitious types like Ó Riordain are waiting in the wings.

Banjo String

So many discrepancies it's hard to know where to begin, or whether to take this post seriously tbh.

DavidRamsay99

Banjo String wrote: »

So many discrepancies it's hard to know where to begin, or whether to take this post seriously tbh.

And?

Berserker

Irish politics is very cyclical. It'll always be FF or FG plus another 'lackey' party. The Greens, PD etc suffered at the hands of FF. Labour are suffering at the hands of FG. Next time round, it'll be FF & SF, I think. SF will get hammed amid a litany of scandals relating to some of their members and their actions in the past. The thought of Renua (who support same sex marriage) as right wing, made me laugh out loud.

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

Irish politics is very cyclical. It'll always be FF or FG plus another 'lackey' party. The Greens, PD etc suffered at the hands of FF. Labour are suffering at the hands of FG. Next time round, it'll be FF & SF, I think. SF will get hammed amid a litany of scandals relating to some of their members and their actions in the past. The thought of Renua (who support same sex marriage) as right wing, made me laugh out loud.

Renua are economically right wing.

Berserker

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

Renua are economically right wing.

Care to elaborate on how? Or are they 'right wing' like FF were during the boom years?

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

Care to elaborate on how? Or are they 'right wing' like FF were during the boom years?

Renua have basically the same right wing economics as the PDs.

FF and FG are both populist conservative parties.

Berserker

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

Renua have basically the same right wing economics as the PDs.

I was under the impression that Renua's policies are a work in progress? We haven't seen anything detailed from them yet. Or is that incorrect? Are these policies the same PD policies that increased social welfare at twice the rate of inflation during their term in office?

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

FF and FG are both populist conservative parties.

FF and FG are not as populist as the parties on the left and neither are socially conservative. What makes them conservative?

Saipanne

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

Renua have basically the same right wing economics as the PDs.

Care to provide facts?

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

I was under the impression that Renua's policies are a work in progress? We haven't seen anything detailed from them yet. Or is that incorrect? Are these policies the same PD policies that increased social welfare at twice the rate of inflation during their term in office?

The PDs were a mudguard party while Bertie and FF made government policy. If the PDs had been the majority party they would have been Thatcherite in government. Renua are cut from the same cloth but as I said in the OP they function as a political lifeboat for cast offs from Fine Gael.

FF and FG are not as populist as the parties on the left and neither are socially conservative. What makes them conservative?

FF and FG are not socially conservative?

Berserker

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

FF and FG are not socially conservative?

Well, divorce, same sex marriage (very soon), abortion under certain circumstances all came into law under their guidance, so I think it's fair to say that they are not socially conservative. I would consider a group or party like the CSP to be socially conservative, as opposed to one who supports and promotes the above.

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

Well, divorce, same sex marriage (very soon), abortion under certain circumstances all came into law under their guidanceOTE]

Yeah. Kicking and screaming and still only under certain circumstances.

Berserker

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

Yeah. Kicking and screaming and still only under certain circumstances.

If they were conservative then they wouldn't entertain it for a second.

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

If they were conservative then they wouldn't entertain it for a second.

It took decades of pulling and dragging before gay rights, divorce (it still takes 5 years at least to get a divorce in Ireland!), contraception and abortion (in extremely restrictive circumstances!) were made legal in Ireland.

porsche959

Berserker wrote: »

If they were conservative then they wouldn't entertain it for a second.

In the UK, gay sex, abortion and divorce were all legalised decades ago. The Conservative party have been in charge for more than 50% of those last 40 years. They may not have been in charge for most of those liberal legislative acts, but they haven't sought to rescind any of it, and it was a Conservative-led government that just recently brought in SSM in the UK.

As DavidRamsay99 says, FF and FG are both socially conservative parties who only bring in liberal changes 'kicking and screaming', when it is clear that they can carry a clear majority of the population with them.

Berserker

DavidRamsay99 wrote: »

It took decades of pulling and dragging before gay rights, divorce (it still takes 5 years at least to get a divorce in Ireland!), contraception and abortion (in extremely restrictive circumstances!) were made legal in Ireland.

But they are legal now and they were made legal by the very parties that you claim are conservative. A party which facilitates and supports a 'Yes' vote for the above is not a conservative party. They are socially progressive at the very least or liberal.

DavidRamsay99

Berserker wrote: »

But they are legal now and they were made legal by the very parties that you claim are conservative. A party which facilitates and supports a 'Yes' vote for the above is not a conservative party. They are socially progressive at the very least or liberal.

Anyway this thread is about what is likely ahead for the parties.

We can have this discussion at another time.

joe912

Berserker wrote: »

Well, divorce, same sex marriage (very soon), abortion under certain circumstances all came into law under their guidance, so I think it's fair to say that they are not socially conservative. I would consider a group or party like the CSP to be socially conservative, as opposed to one who supports and promotes the above.

they certainly weren't promoting anything just following populist opinion.

joe912

Fair play David Ramsay your opinion piece would be greatly appreciated as factual, deep and insightful journalism in any impartial media such as the indepedant or the journal.