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Ew betting

• 07-04-2015 11:20am
Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭

Hi,
Looking for a bit of help from the mathematicians.
I want to work out if its better to get an extra place in an ew market, or a bigger price but one place less.
Example below;

Bookmaker paying 6 places at 12/1, or 5 places at 16/1.

I have a rough idea of how to do it but any help appreciated.

• Registered Users Posts: 14,665 ✭✭✭✭

12/1 is only better if your horse finishes 6th

• Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭

ShaneU wrote: »
12/1 is only better if your horse finishes 6th

EDIT: on the off chance you were being serious what im looking for is to work out at what point (or difference in the odds) is it statistically better to take the extra place, ie how much price difference could you sacrifice and still be better EV better off.

• Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭

assuming it's either the grand national (40 runners) or the US Masters (96 runners), sacrificing 24% of your win & 20% of your place returns on the chances of finishing exactly 6th isn't worth it.
I know there are Dead Heat rules in golf, but I don't want to over complicate things.

• Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭

assuming it's either the grand national (40 runners) or the US Masters (96 runners), sacrificing 24% of your win & 20% of your place returns on the chances of finishing exactly 6th isn't worth it.
I know there are Dead Heat rules in golf, but I don't want to over complicate things.

ya the example i gave was purely arbitrary but Im interested in how to actually calculate it.
It is the US masters in particular i was looking at.

• Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭

REFLINE1 wrote: »
Hi,
Looking for a bit of help from the mathematicians.
I want to work out if its better to get an extra place in an ew market, or a bigger price but one place less.
Example below;

Bookmaker paying 6 places at 12/1, or 5 places at 16/1.

I have a rough idea of how to do it but any help appreciated.

It takes a bit of leeway in actually working out the place price. Lets assume that the 100% price (betfair) is exactly what you quoted there on the 5 places one. So win = 16/1, 5 places = 16/4 = 4/1. (Generally with 5 places in any offering the place price would be shorter in this instance. For this example we'll let it go.) So your EV on the 16/1 bet is 0%, nothing positive, nothing negative. On the 12/1 shot, you're losing 23% ev on the win side. You have to work out what the 4/1 would be in a 600% market instead of 500% to get the place side. Works out about 10/3. So you're making 20% ev on the place side compared to the 4/1. So in the end the combined ev is 3% in favour of sticking with the 16/1.

Note: The win price offered by bookies is unlikely to be on the betfair line. However in a case like this where there's 5 places on offer, the place price for the 5 will usually dip below the betfair place price, meaning when you revert to 6 you're getting a huge enhancement on the 100% place price. So while in the example above the 5 places worked out better, usually if you take a rule in cases like that of taking the extra place its better. 4 times out of 5 it'll be the better option.

Edit: Sorry I calculated the place part of the 12/1 wrong, obviously you're only getting 3/1 a place with the 12/1 so would be negative margin all round. But anyway, you get the picture. Good that you actually want to calculate this stuff out instead of listening to the usual nonsense assumptions like given above

• Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭

Hulk Hands wrote: »
It takes a bit of leeway in actually working out the place price. Lets assume that the 100% price (betfair) is exactly what you quoted there on the 5 places one. So win = 16/1, 5 places = 16/4 = 4/1. (Generally with 5 places in any offering the place price would be shorter in this instance. For this example we'll let it go.) So your EV on the 16/1 bet is 0%, nothing positive, nothing negative. On the 12/1 shot, you're losing 23% ev on the win side. You have to work out what the 4/1 would be in a 600% market instead of 500% to get the place side. Works out about 10/3. So you're making 20% ev on the place side compared to the 4/1. So in the end the combined ev is 3% in favour of sticking with the 16/1.

Note: The win price offered by bookies is unlikely to be on the betfair line. However in a case like this where there's 5 places on offer, the place price for the 5 will usually dip below the betfair place price, meaning when you revert to 6 you're getting a huge enhancement on the 100% place price. So while in the example above the 5 places worked out better, usually if you take a rule in cases like that of taking the extra place its better. 4 times out of 5 it'll be the better option.

Edit: Sorry I calculated the place part of the 12/1 wrong, obviously you're only getting 3/1 a place with the 12/1 so would be negative margin all round. But anyway, you get the picture. Good that you actually want to calculate this stuff out instead of listening to the usual nonsense assumptions like given above

Thanks for the detailled reply HH.
Had made a couple of stabs at it myself roughly along the lines of what you posted, but its good to get a linecheck.
cheers.

• Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭

REFLINE1 wrote: »
Thanks for the detailled reply HH.
Had made a couple of stabs at it myself roughly along the lines of what you posted, but its good to get a linecheck.
cheers.

Cheers. By the way, theres 96 players in the Masters but circa 20 are so are complete and utter no hopers (past champions etc). What this leads us to is the most competitive e/w book of the year. With 5 places the firms place book is overbroke (below 500%) so good value, 6 places is excellent value, and 7 places with betfair sportsbook (25 max ew) is flat out insane. Go mad

• Registered Users Posts: 10,575 ✭✭✭✭

Sky Bet and Paddy Power are paying 6 places.
Ladbrokes (in Shops only) are also 6 places but not well advertised.

• Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭

Also worth mentioning if you're a fan of e/w accumulators (4,5,6+ folds etc) then that extra place option may be the best option, as you can still score a bunch of notes, decent profit or simply just a break-even from having selections placed and no wins.

The prices are getting very jumpy at the moment for the big two this weekend, and possibly only getting shorter by the day/hour as the average Joe gets a few bob on at the shops.

Currently averaging 20% as the best variation across the main books, whereas a couple of days ago it was more like 30-40% differences in prices (excluding the outright favourites, just the upper-middle market).

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner
http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner