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Draw Theory

  • 06-04-2015 10:01pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭ Shanotheslayer


    Hi all,

    Don't post much here, tend to post in just the Football betting section, but this is a question for all.

    Just thinking about a theory, no doubt it wouldn't work or everybody would be rich, but just want to see what folk think.

    Backing a team to draw every week and increasing the stake. So for example, I'm an Everton fan, and we tend to draw a lot. On average of the past 3 season we have drawn an average of 11.6 games.

    So let's assume the average price for every Everton game to be a draw is 2/1.

    *Just using small stakes in this example*

    .10 .20 .40 .80 1.6 3.2 6.4 12.8 25.6

    So starting at 10c, the team would have to go 9 games before getting to a decent size stake. Once the team draws reset back at 0.10

    So a fault straight away I can see is:

    A team might draw 3 in a row, thus the returns will be really low. and could then go for X amount a games without a draw before then drawing X amount of games in a row.

    Am I missing other faults?

    All help appreciated.

    Regards,

    Shano.


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭ Bateman


    It's a fairly well-established "system".

    Starting at 10c, doing all Premiership teams individually, doubling every team's stake (since the draw price is never less than 2/1) game-on-game for every match that they don't draw, and stopping at the end of February - even applying some loose rules, it doesn't take long before your stakes are getting pretty big, and ultimately, the logical danger is lurking that you run out of money: the market can stay irrational etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    Systems never work in the long run.

    Eventually you will run out of money this way. Just because it is unlikely to happen does not mean it will happen.

    At the end of the day, if Everton draw 30% of games and you are backing 2/1 each time, you will lose a lot of money regardless of your staking strategy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    What you're talking about is martingale system. It works if you have an unlimited roll and a bookie who has unlimited payouts. There are some horror stories out there if you search for results!! I used to work for a bookie and there was a guy doing it he started well but then hit a horror run he started at €5 and it had ballooned to €3600! He won that bet but he wasn't back the next day to start again!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    Reminds me of the old Roulette system where you keep backing and increasing your stake on either black or red to come up, sure it has to come up at some stage, doesn't it?
    Many years ago, a mate of mine tried it and having seen red come up 13 times in a row (was betting on black), he had to stop as had no more money left.
    Of course black came up next but it was still an evens bet every time.
    As said by jimmii above, you need unlimited bank roll for it to work and a good set of nerves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    Reminds me of the old Roulette system where you keep backing and increasing your stake on either black or red to come up, sure it has to come up at some stage, doesn't it?
    Many years ago, a mate of mine tried it and having seen red come up 13 times in a row (was betting on black), he had to stop as had no more money left.
    Of course black came up next but it was still an evens bet every time.
    As said by jimmii above, you need unlimited bank roll for it to work and a good set of nerves.

    That is the Martingale system it was popular in France a couple of hundred years ago its been going a long long time. If it did work we probably wouldn't have any bookies or casinos left!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 313 ✭✭ frat


    My understanding is that the martingale system is based on coin flips (or at a price of evens). What the OP is considering is different because the price will be at least 2/1. If, for example, you place $1 on and Everton draw and double the stake until it hits you will be up more than $1. Taking Evertons PL games this season, the longest they went without a draw was 6 games.

    Therefore you would be staking $64 on the 7th game when the draw comes in as follows:
    Game 1 - $1
    Game 2 - $2
    Game 3 - $4
    Game 4 - $8
    Game 5 - $16
    Game 6 - $32
    Game 7 - $64

    Based on this, you would have staked a total of $127, but getting back $192 from the 7th bet giving a profit overall of $65. If this was martingale you would only be making an overall profit of $1 from the 7th game.

    Looking at the numbers it could very well work but as many people have said, you need a decent bankroll. Let's say they went another 2 games without a draw you would be staking $256 on the bet (with a total outlay of $511).

    Some of the teams in the PL have gone 9/10/11 games without a draw, but staying away from them (i.e. QPR, Stoke, Southampton) could be profitable. Just depends on how far you are willing to go. Obviously, based on odds of 2/1 or better, the longer it goes without a draw the better profit overall.

    Getting $500 down on a draw in a PL wouldn't be difficult, although it may need to be spread over a couple of bookies.

    Also, as you are increasing your stake each time, it's not as simple as saying that if Everton draw 30% of the time at odds of 2/1 you will lose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    Yeh its basically an adjusted martingale you could change the stake increase to reduce the variance (and the profit). It still doesn't work unless you have an edge with the odds though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    Reminds me of the old Roulette system where you keep backing and increasing your stake on either black or red to come up, sure it has to come up at some stage, doesn't it?
    Many years ago, a mate of mine tried it and having seen red come up 13 times in a row (was betting on black), he had to stop as had no more money left.
    Of course black came up next but it was still an evens bet every time.
    As said by jimmii above, you need unlimited bank roll for it to work and a good set of nerves.

    Evens? ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    The price of a draw is rarely 2/1 these days.
    Most times it would be 9/4 or better depending on what team they are playing and whether they are home or away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,189 ✭✭✭✭ Shanotheslayer


    Yeh Frat hit the nail on the head, I was doing some research on teams. 2 Years ago, Everton went 16 games without a draw. That would be a disaster.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    Evens every time you play Roulette backing a single colour, odds/evens or over or under numbers 1-18 and 19-36.
    Obviously "true" odds wouldn't be evens as you have 0 and Double Zero in places to take into account.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    Evens every time you play Roulette backing a single colour, odds/evens or over or under numbers 1-18 and 19-36.
    Obviously "true" odds wouldn't be evens as you have 0 and Double Zero in places to take into account.

    Why would you back something at evens if there is only a 18/38 chance of winning? (I don't know roulette well so am relying on your figures)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    Why would you back something at evens if there is only a 18/38 chance of winning? (I don't know roulette well so am relying on your figures)

    Degens going to degen! For some reason people feel they can beat the odds using systems like martingale obviously it rarely works!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2 system_player


    okidoki987 wrote: »
    Reminds me of the old Roulette system where you keep backing and increasing your stake on either black or red to come up, sure it has to come up at some stage, doesn't it?
    Many years ago, a mate of mine tried it and having seen red come up 13 times in a row (was betting on black), he had to stop as had no more money left.
    Of course black came up next but it was still an evens bet every time.
    As said by jimmii above, you need unlimited bank roll for it to work and a good set of nerves.

    Someone once told me the trick to winning more often and losing less often while using the Martingale is to wait until you have three-in-a-row of the same outcome (red for example) before you start betting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    Someone once told me the trick to winning more often and losing less often while using the Martingale is to wait until you have three-in-a-row of the same outcome (red for example) before you start betting.

    Whoever that was is why casinos make so much money! The key to winning with martingale is having unlimited funds and a bookie who will take unlimited sized bets that or a nice bit of luck!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,716 ✭✭✭ 3DataModem


    jimmii wrote: »
    Whoever that was is why casinos make so much money! The key to winning with martingale is having unlimited funds and a bookie who will take unlimited sized bets that or a nice bit of luck!

    Unlimited funds and unlimited bets does not make the martingale profitable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭ Gregk961


    3DataModem wrote: »
    Unlimited funds and unlimited bets does not make the martingale profitable.

    Indeed Martingale is a negative value bet no matter how much or how little cash you have backing it, even infinite money and table limits can't make this fairytale come true.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,810 ✭✭✭✭ jimmii


    3DataModem wrote: »
    Unlimited funds and unlimited bets does not make the martingale profitable.

    Yeh lol not sure what I was talking about there a negative or neutral expectation bet obviously isn't going to become profitable just because you put more money on it!


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