Selling shares while they are at a peak or wait for further rises?

ongarboy

Hi all, I was reading the Sunday Times Business section yesterday and there was an article about how we are in one of longest sustained periods of stock market gains since the Wall Street Crash in 1929 and that another dot.com type bubble burst is most likely imminent.

I have shares with a US bank accumulated over 10 years of bonuses working for that company and all of which are now matured (ie exempt from income tax if I dispose). There are at or near their all time share price peak and with the great US to EUR exchange rate at the moment, would I be wise selling them off before a potential fall in value? Any cash savings I have are stagnant due to the paltry deposit rate returns and the only gains I've made in recent years have been the 50% rise in my equity shares. Would transferring my shares assets to cash be a wise move?

I also have 148K outstanding on a 0.75% tracker mortgage over 25 years along with mortgage interest relief until 2018 so feel as the repayments are so cheap on that, it would probably not benefit me paying off lump sums? Not sure also if I want to invest in another property as I've heard too many horror stories from friends getting nightmare tenants who don't pay rent and seemingly appear to be legally entitled to avoiding eviction....!

PS - I'm not in a permanent position at the moment but in a well paid but constantly renewed contract position.

Opinions welcome on whether I should sell my shares/what to do with proceeds or keep them as shares.

filbert the fox

Well now isn't this a fantastic start of the week dilemma.

to sell......

to hold.....

Shares can go down as well as up.....

Currencies.......

future planning......

If I thought that the top of the market in 2007 meant my house would more than halve in value I'd probably have sold it... But I didn't know.....

It looks like cash in hand is popular with cash buyers for property a case in point.

What answer are you hoping for? I'm sure you'll get a series of contradictory opinions on here.

Sell.........................but what if the share price rises...
Hold........................but what if it falls?

No way of knowing.. however if you've cashed in at least you've the monetary value in currency and not a valuation which may not be realised.

Be interested to hear what you decide.

SouthBank

Ongarboy:

If you have a lot of your net wealth in these company positions, in my opinion, you would be better off to diversify. If you want to keep the exposure, you could always buy some call options.

I know A LOT of people who have lost A LOT of money because they owned too much company stock.

euroboom13

Firstly,dont pay any attention to, what advise you pick up, in a newspaper.

(The newspapers encouraged, property speculation and also blue chip bank shares.)

Gripes aside,

if you feel you are riding all time high`s,take something off the table.

Hold onto that tracker but hold some liquid assets to service any unforeseen.

Personally if I had dollar shares at an All time high, I would be taking advantage of the exchange rate (and buy European bank stock;))
Good Luck

bun_king

ongarboy wrote: »

Hi all, I was reading the Sunday Times Business section yesterday and there was an article about how we are in one of longest sustained periods of stock market gains since the Wall Street Crash in 1929 and that another dot.com type bubble burst is most likely imminent.

I have shares with a US bank accumulated over 10 years of bonuses working for that company and all of which are now matured (ie exempt from income tax if I dispose). There are at or near their all time share price peak and with the great US to EUR exchange rate at the moment, would I be wise selling them off before a potential fall in value? Any cash savings I have are stagnant due to the paltry deposit rate returns and the only gains I've made in recent years have been the 50% rise in my equity shares. Would transferring my shares assets to cash be a wise move?

I also have 148K outstanding on a 0.75% tracker mortgage over 25 years along with mortgage interest relief until 2018 so feel as the repayments are so cheap on that, it would probably not benefit me paying off lump sums? Not sure also if I want to invest in another property as I've heard too many horror stories from friends getting nightmare tenants who don't pay rent and seemingly appear to be legally entitled to avoiding eviction....!

PS - I'm not in a permanent position at the moment but in a well paid but constantly renewed contract position.

Opinions welcome on whether I should sell my shares/what to do with proceeds or keep them as shares.

while long term ( ten years plus ) shares should go up , by any objective measure , stocks are expensive right now , they were for absolutely nothing after the crash in late 2008 - early 2009 , even you bought a broad based index fund in the usa or europe , you would be up 150%

were it me , i would not put much in stock right now with the possible exception of energy stocks which are down at least 30% in the past twelve months

daheff

euroboom13 wrote: »

Firstly,dont pay any attention to, what advise you pick up, in a newspaper.

(The newspapers encouraged, property speculation and also blue chip bank shares.)

Good advice...same goes for what you pick up on chat forums on the internet :rolleyes:

Seriously though, cashing in some of the shares (at least) seems like a good idea.

If the figures you are talking about are significant, then maybe go to a financial adviser (not one in the bank, paid by the bank).

ongarboy

daheff wrote: »

Good advice...same goes for what you pick up on chat forums on the internet :rolleyes:

Seriously though, cashing in some of the shares (at least) seems like a good idea.

If the figures you are talking about are significant, then maybe go to a financial adviser (not one in the bank, paid by the bank).

Well, I decided to bite the bullet and sell!! The value has hovered around it's peak for the last 6 months and with the exchange rate back to EUR being so close to parity with USD, I'm getting a good deal I think. OK, they could possible go higher but if the Euro starts strengthening again then I may not get the same net return.

hfallada

euroboom13 wrote: »

Firstly,dont pay any attention to, what advise you pick up, in a newspaper.

(The newspapers encouraged, property speculation and also blue chip bank shares.)

Gripes aside,

if you feel you are riding all time high`s,take something off the table.

Hold onto that tracker but hold some liquid assets to service any unforeseen.

Personally if I had dollar shares at an All time high, I would be taking advantage of the exchange rate (and buy European bank stock;))
Good Luck

If all the fund managers are highlighting that they believe the FTSE is overvalued and are holding as much of their funds in cash as possible. I think I would do what a manager of a multi-billion pound fund is doing and sell my shares. Then wait for a correction, to repurchase shares. They only share fund managers are saying are value are British American Tobacco and a handful of others. As BATS is giving a solid dividend.

I dont think Euro bank shares offer value for money. If they are giving out 15 year mortgages in Germany for just over 1%. I cant see how in 5 years, Euro bank shares are going to be significantly higher and offer great dividends. Germans arent borrowing at all. Most Europeans are not borrowing at all. Any other Eurozone banks that have diversified in places like Russia, have been destroyed by their economic situation eg raiffsen bank

For ever odd

German's are just as happy to rent for life than buy a house, ( ie. not like Irish)as with other European countries. This has been the case for a long time, so German banks main source of income is from other sources than mortgages. Big money lost By the banks diversecation as you said in Russia and Switzerland among other places, but five years is a long time to write off European banks,especially German banks in my view.

For ever odd

ongarboy wrote: »

Well, I decided to bite the bullet and sell!! The value has hovered around it's peak for the last 6 months and with the exchange rate back to EUR being so close to parity with USD, I'm getting a good deal I think. OK, they could possible go higher but if the Euro starts strengthening again then I may not get the same net return.

No-one ever went broke by taking a profit.

DarkDusk

I wrote this in another thread but I thought you'd be interested so I posted it here.

Nearly all economic data that has come out of the US the last few months has been very negative. The Atlanta Fed has estimated zero GDP growth for Q1 2015. Huge miss today with the March Non-farm Payrolls and both the January and February figures were revised downwards. After-tax corporate profits declined $57.1 billion (3%) in Q4 2014, the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2011 (despite a rising stock market). First back to back monthly decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013. March Dallas Manufacturing Index dropped 17% the largest drop since 2008. The Chicago PMI is at 6 year lows, what was happening 6 years ago? ISM Manufacturing Index has declined for 5 consecutive months, the first time this has happened since 2008.

The US economy is at it's weakest since the great recession of 2008! After a bust in Q1, most people are expecting a "boom" in Q2. However, without huge spending on Obamacare and businesses investing on inventories where is this growth going to come from? And all this negative data while the US is at 0% interest rates!

Who still believes that rate hikes are coming and not QE4?

ixus

I think you did the right thing for three reasons.

1. You wanted to sell them. Something was telling you to and it wasn't greed.

2. Ireland is littered with people who did the same as you but had their little "pension" pot destroyed in 2007.

3. You were over exposed to the company. A disaster scenario where you lost job and those savings would hurt a lot.

Take your time with your cash pile, don't treat it like hot potatoes.