The End is Nigh, Flat is back (Saturday Thread)

mr.jingle

Just a few selections for my e/w lucky 31 tomorrow:

Doncaster 1-35 With the Mark Johnston horses starting to find a little form I like the look of Ravenhoe 7/1 in the Brocklesby.

2-35 Astaire 3/1 has the class to burn these off dropped in class. Jack Dexter probably needs it softer as does Aetna.

3-10 King Torus 10/1 has dropped to a winnable mark again and trip/ground are perfect. No better man than O'Meara to get some improvement from an older horse

3-45 Belgian Bill 18/1 has been running well in Dubai and the fact Smullen goes over for 1 ride is enough to sway me. GM Hopkins is the other I like but is very short in such a race

3-25 Kempton Boomerang Bob 5/1 ran a cracker lto behind a progressive Godolphin horse and should go well here. Has won on his only start at Kempton and has won off a higher mark than this before

Flat is bòllox.

That is all.

Peintre Celebre

I always find its little bemusing when people say they like racing yet don't like flat. After a particularly un eventful jumps season I'm looking forward to it.


What About Carlo my fancy in the Lincoln who should strip much fitter for his recent return at Lingfield, bit disgraced in a hot race when given a quiet ride. Always thought he could be a 100+ horse and he goes on any ground. Backed him at 20/1

mr.jingle

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I always find its little bemusing when people say they like racing yet don't like flat. After a particularly un eventful jumps season I'm looking forward to it.

Fully agree, the thread title is a little tongue in cheek as I expected similar posts to TheTorments!

True the horses aren't as accessible to the general public as they only race 2/3 yrs in cases unlike the NH counterparts who are around a bit longer.

pugw

mr.jingle wrote: »

Fully agree, the thread title is a little tongue in cheek as I expected similar posts to TheTorments!

True the horses aren't as accessible to the general public as they only race 2/3 yrs in cases unlike the NH counterparts who are around a bit longer.

I just find it extremely open and difficult to pick winners in! Generally have a good deal more luck with the jumps, everyone is different I suppose! Definately the big field cavalry charge are a lottery

Timberrrrrrrr

pugw wrote: »

I just find it extremely open and difficult to pick winners in! Generally have a good deal more luck with the jumps, everyone is different I suppose! Definately the big field cavalry charge are a lottery

I'm the opposite

Always do badly on the jumps (nothing worse than seeing your horse fall at the last) but do well on the flat.

Anywho am backing Jacks revenge in t"et Lincoln €10 e/w for ****s and giggles.

Timberrrrrrrr

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm the opposite

Always do badly on the jumps (nothing worse than seeing your horse fall at the last) but do well on the flat.

Anywho am backing Jacks revenge in t"et Lincoln €10 e/w for ****s and giggles.

Especially when Ruby's on it! I like a day out in the Curragh, but prefer the big meetings like Leopardstown at Christmas or Punchestown, but strangely, I'm not a fan of Galway Festival. I never make much, but the odd Placepot keeps the Tote Account active!

Peintre Celebre

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I always find its little bemusing when people say they like racing yet don't like flat. After a particularly un eventful jumps season I'm looking forward to it.

I love NH racing and ptp meetings but the flat does very little for me. Whilst I will watch the classics, perhaps have a bet even, flat racing does very little to excite me in the way that NH does.

In my opinion they cant be laid out in comparison. Perhaps like if Racing was like GAA, some find hurling far superior in excitement to football. Its a matter of self preference but I don't think that my dislike of flat racing lends itself to not being a Racing (collectively) fan.

DylanAFC

I prefer the flat to jumps personally. Gabrials Kaka my pick for the Lincoln. Nice claimer on board too.

tomaussie

Gone for INDY in the 3.10 and ROBERT THE PAINTER was an unlucky 3rd in the Lincoln last year so 33/1 seems fair to me.

I love the flat racing !

Shemale

I am not a fan of the flat as its nowhere near as exciting as national hunt and as a punter you can have the right horse backed but zero luck/ jockey stupidity at the business end to do your money.

Lt J.R. Bell

TheTorment wrote: »

Flat is bòllox.

That is all.

Your summer is going to be miserable so

Lt J.R. Bell

pugw wrote: »

I just find it extremely open and difficult to pick winners in! Generally have a good deal more luck with the jumps, everyone is different I suppose! Definately the big field cavalry charge are a lottery

Its often all about the draw.

Slade Power was an excellent each way bet horse for the last 2 years. Could go on most grounds,and carry most weights, but you always had your hands over your eyes at the start in case he messed up in the stalls. Did it twice in 2013 and again at the end of 2014.

I think it would have been hard not to knock Declaration of War in 2013, he ran 5-6 times in top company, and ran well in mos, even in the Breeders Cup

Mark Johnston is a huew for constantly running his horses within a short time with a decent degree of success.The delight I had to see Est Que Love actually win last year (with Clive Cox) after many great races (heartbreaks) with Johnston in 2013. Then you have Hartwell and Sennockian Star -crazy amount of runs in a season

mailburner

how tamarkuz won that I'll never know :eek:

Lt J.R. Bell

Deleted User wrote: »

Especially when Ruby's on it! I like a day out in the Curragh, but prefer the big meetings like Leopardstown at Christmas or Punchestown, but strangely, I'm not a fan of Galway Festival. I never make much, but the odd Placepot keeps the Tote Account active!

Galway is nightmare to back a winner,especially the flat. Not the greatest of jump/ flat horses,though 2013 was a good year for NH as many pattern winners came out of that later eg Carlingford Lough and Missunited. Doesn't help when you are tipsy

Love Leopardstown, flat and jumps. Gorgeous track and so close to the city. A little disappointed with the Curragh (not the track itself) looks a little old

Lt J.R. Bell

mailburner wrote: »

how tamarkuz won that I'll never know :eek:

Bha, despite his pageant for weak finishing, I had each way on Frankie Four Fingers. Bha!

Francie Barrett

I see that Benkei has been switched over to hurdles in the 2:40 after being sold for €70k. This one has some fairly decent flat form over the distance, so it will be interesting to see how it takes to hurdles today. Sizing Titanium has bags of experience and has been going closer with every run, so not expecting Benkei to win, but horse may very well sneak into the places. Prices are utterly sh1te at the moment, so will be keeping an eye on the exchanges for decent value.

Squall Leonhart

Good call in Ravenhoe.. I pretty much never bet on horses because I don't know a thing about them. Went 2.50 e/w on four of your tips, I'm already up six euro thanks to Ravenhoe, thanks ;-)

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I see that Benkei has been switched over to hurdles in the 2:40 after being sold for €70k. This one has some fairly decent flat form over the distance, so it will be interesting to see how it takes to hurdles today. Sizing Titanium has bags of experience and has been going closer with every run, so not expecting Benkei to win, but horse may very well sneak into the places. Prices are utterly sh1te at the moment, so will be keeping an eye on the exchanges for decent value.

33/1 Sportingbet good enough for me now.

hawkhead

Rebellious Guest in the next at Kempton looks to have a good chance. Should get the strong gallop he needs to be seen to best effect in this race 6/1 seems fair enough

kfallon

Brilliant reaction from Callum Shepherd there after Noble Gift was called the winner

Backstreet Moyes

Feel so hard done by on Fire Fighting can't wait to see the photo i was sure he was up.

Lt J.R. Bell

Probably won't run well, but fancy Mark Johnstons horse Shennokian Star, later at Chelmsford City, he is or should be race fit.

Mysterypunter

All them lottery handicaps on the flat are a joke. Start today, stick the money in a jar and you will have a decent tank for Cheltenham. All the fivers and tenners ew add up. Better to have 400 on a jump horse than have ten score ew bets on flat handicaps.

Peintre Celebre

Mysterypunter wrote: »

All them lottery handicaps on the flat are a joke. Start today, stick the money in a jar and you will have a decent tank for Cheltenham. All the fivers and tenners ew add up. Better to have 400 on a jump horse than have ten score ew bets on flat handicaps.

Any statistical and or evidence to suggest that? Assuming a horse is priced correctly, a 10/1 shot has the same statsotixal chance regardless of where it runs

Harry Angstrom

Mysterypunter wrote: »

All them lottery handicaps on the flat are a joke. Start today, stick the money in a jar and you will have a decent tank for Cheltenham. All the fivers and tenners ew add up. Better to have 400 on a jump horse than have ten score ew bets on flat handicaps.

And then watch it fall, unseat, brought down or get hampered......

DylanAFC

African Story to make history here. Come on!!

Harry Angstrom

Hard to see beyond the Yanks, now that they've got the dirt back.

sdoc13

Backed CC here 6/4 on exchanges too big for me to resist

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

Backed CC here 6/4 on exchanges too big for me to resist

Typicall backed prince bishop last year

Mysterypunter

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Any statistical and or evidence to suggest that? Assuming a horse is priced correctly, a 10/1 shot has the same statsotixal chance regardless of where it runs

A 10/1 chance should run ok. Loads of flat horses are tailed off at that price. 2 horses fight out the finish of thr lincoln and the other 20 are tailed off. That happens loads on the flat. Not so much in other events.

Gavster1982

What wins the Irish Lincolnshire?

Harry Angstrom

Gavster1982 wrote: »

What wins the Irish Lincolnshire?

Irish handicaps (Flat and NH) are a definite no-no. Bookmakers bet to ridiculous over-round percentages and half of the field aren't even trying.

Sundance_Kid

Hi folks,

Wondering can someone explain the handicap ratings a bit better too me, sorry if this is quite obvious.

Im looking at last years Irish Lincoln and also this years Irish Lincoln. See below and attached the RP result for the first seven home in 2014.

So my question is, Canary Rows official handicap rating has dropped 1lb and Stucodors official has gone up 6lb yet Stucodor is carrying 6lb more in weight from last years race and Canary Row is carrying 9lb more.

Why is this? Is it something to do with the claim from the jockeys?
2014 Irish Lincoln Result

1st; Stucodor 9-9 (weight) 102 (OR)
3rd; Canary Row - 8-6 - 95
4th; Bold Thady Quill - 9-4 - 100
6th; Defining Year - 9-0 - 96
7th; Chapter Seven - 9-9 - 102

2015 Irish Lincoln Entries

Stucodor - 10-1 (weight) - 108 (OR)
Canary Row - 9-1 - 94
Bold Thady Quill - 9-3 - 96
Defining Year - 8-10 - 89
Chapter Seven - 9-11 - 104

Francie Barrett

Sundance_Kid wrote: »

Why is this? Is it something to do with the claim from the jockeys?

That is exactly it. On the RP site, the jockey claim isn't subtracted from the weight on the pre-race card. In the result however, the jockey claim is subtracted.