Green Party Prospects in GE 2016

Godge

As someone who intends voting Green at the next election, I did something on this in another thread a few months ago.

There is a strong possibility that they will get zero seats. However, there is also the possibility that they could pick up three or four. It will all be dependent on getting the first preference vote up in Dublin and transfers, transfers, transfers.

One remark that was noticeable in a recent poll analysis which many people may have missed is that the polling company said that the Green Party support of 2-3% was evenly spread across the country which militates against their chances of getting seats.

So, if it was to happen where and who (in order of my opinion on their chances)?

(1) Eamon Ryan - good performance in the European elections where he picked up 12.5% of the vote. A similar performance in a five-seater with the Green ability to attract transfers would see him in with a great chance. Thing is, which five-seater could he run in?

(2) Dublin West - Roderic O'Gorman. Varadkar and Coppinger are going to pick up the first two seats. With McGuinness now out of the FF nomination, Donnelly (SF) looks best placed for the third seat. That would leave a dog-fight for the last - Burton, Chambers, Mcguinness (as an independent?), second Socialist, second FG and O'Gorman. What he has going for him is that there are two seats in Castleknock and two in Mulhuddart with Donnelly and Coppinger having taken the Mulhuddart seats, he will need to stay ahead of Burton and Chambers.

(3) Ciaran Cuffe - former T.D. will be running in one of the central Dublin constituencies which can go anyway.

(4) Catherine Martin - will be running in Dublin Rathdown, part old-Dublin South, part old-Dun Laoghaire. Both of those constituencies had Green seats in the past so anything is possible.

(5) David Healy - is it still called Dublin North-East. Would take some swing to see him elected.

(6) Louth - they have two councillors in Louth so it is not impossible.

There will be candidates, some of them councillors in the other Dublin constituencies but their chances are small (certainly at this point in time). I also may have forgotten someone.

johnnyskeleton

Severed from the Cafe thread, which can be found here:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057404296

So, to confirm, if you want to say something about the greens that involves detailed and specific analysis, this is the thread. If you want to simply voice dissatisfaction in a non-specific, relaxed kind of way, then the Cafe is the place for you.

johnnyskeleton

Godge wrote: »

(1) Eamon Ryan - good performance in the European elections where he picked up 12.5% of the vote. A similar performance in a five-seater with the Green ability to attract transfers would see him in with a great chance. Thing is, which five-seater could he run in?

I was surprised by that as well, but I put it down to being part of the general protest vote. Eamon Ryan has a specific cachet around UCD, where he has his bike shop. This is the Dublin South Constituency, which has a significant affluent suburban population and so probably has a lot of people who might be inclined towards a light left wing vote.

I thought that Dublin South was being reduced to a 4 seater in the next election, but I can't see anything about that online.

In 2011 the seats were:

Shane Ross (Ind) 23.5
Alex White (Lab) 11.7
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 13.3
Peter Mathews (FG) 12.5
Alan Shatter (FG) 10.6

Also ran were
Maria Corrigan (FF) 9.4
Eamon Ryan (Green) 6.8


So, my view is that Shatter will retire and Peter Matthews with his too Lucinda for FG, too FG for Lucinda position is unlikely, IMO, to be re-elected.

I fully expect Shane Ross to be elected, although not sure he will top the polls. Alex White is less clear. He is a very popular TD, but Labour are tanking.

If FF got 9.4% first prefs in 2011, I would imagine that they will get at least that in 2016 and possibly a bit more.

The SF candidate (Sorcha Ni Cormaic / Cllr Chris Curran?) is largely untested. I would imagine they could squeeze one in.

So as predictions go, and it's a bit early yet, I'd go with 1 Ind, 2 FG, 1 SF and 1 Lab or FF. I don't see Ryan fitting into this constituency, and I don't think he would fit in anywhere else any better.

Godge

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I was surprised by that as well, but I put it down to being part of the general protest vote. Eamon Ryan has a specific cachet around UCD, where he has his bike shop. This is the Dublin South Constituency, which has a significant affluent suburban population and so probably has a lot of people who might be inclined towards a light left wing vote.

I thought that Dublin South was being reduced to a 4 seater in the next election, but I can't see anything about that online.

In 2011 the seats were:

Shane Ross (Ind) 23.5
Alex White (Lab) 11.7
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 13.3
Peter Mathews (FG) 12.5
Alan Shatter (FG) 10.6

Also ran were
Maria Corrigan (FF) 9.4
Eamon Ryan (Green) 6.8


So, my view is that Shatter will retire and Peter Matthews with his too Lucinda for FG, too FG for Lucinda position is unlikely, IMO, to be re-elected.

I fully expect Shane Ross to be elected, although not sure he will top the polls. Alex White is less clear. He is a very popular TD, but Labour are tanking.

If FF got 9.4% first prefs in 2011, I would imagine that they will get at least that in 2016 and possibly a bit more.

The SF candidate (Sorcha Ni Cormaic / Cllr Chris Curran?) is largely untested. I would imagine they could squeeze one in.

So as predictions go, and it's a bit early yet, I'd go with 1 Ind, 2 FG, 1 SF and 1 Lab or FF. I don't see Ryan fitting into this constituency, and I don't think he would fit in anywhere else any better.

Shane Ross will be re-elected but not with 23% of the vote. If Eamon Ryan gets about 10-11% of the vote, he will be in with a chance of the last seat. Can't see a Shinner getting in in Dublin South.

The Greens and other small parties will be worth watching in the next election because FG/Lab may end up only six or seven seats short.

Red Kev

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I thought that Dublin South was being reduced to a 4 seater in the next election, but I can't see anything about that online.


.

Dublin South is now part merged to be the new Dublin Bay South, that's where E Ryan is running, I'd be surprised if he didn't get elected there as its a 5 seater, he lives in Milltown and will take a chink of the old Gormley vote. He did well in the Euros and they did well there in the locals.

A lot of the old Dublin South is now called Dublin Rathdown, its a 3 seater.

Catherine Martin is running there, teaches in Dundrum and is a councillor, she would have a chance in a 5 seater but has her work cut out to get elected in a 3 seat. But they are a notoriously fickle electorate there with a traditional green vote so she has an outside chance.

Maybe Mark Deary in Louth and that's it, don't see O'Gorman getting in as it's seriously crowded there.


So 1 seat, maybe 2 or 3 if things go well on the day IMO.

For Forks Sake

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The SF candidate (Sorcha Ni Cormaic / Cllr Chris Curran?) is largely untested. I would imagine they could squeeze one in.

So as predictions go, and it's a bit early yet, I'd go with 1 Ind, 2 FG, 1 SF and 1 Lab or FF. I don't see Ryan fitting into this constituency, and I don't think he would fit in anywhere else any better.

Dublin South has never had a SF candidate come even close to being elected (usually max 1000 1st preferences) and I can't see that changing now. They like their lefties of the middle class Labour variety (Eithne Fitzgerald, Alex White) round there, and I say that as a former resident of the area.