Bet timing

Earendil

Evening all,
Could I ask people's views on whether it's better to place bets now when the final decs' haven't been confirmed and the NRNB is in place, or wait till race day? Reason I ask is I see mentioned a lot on here that people reckon the price of certain horses will be bigger on the day(though usually in relation to favs'). In particular I was looking at the Novices Handicap Chase.
Thanks for your time.

BumperD

Now. When final decs are done, price will likely shorten. It won't drift unless it's not fancied. Some are bog now so if it drifts, you'll get the bigger price.

Earendil

That makes perfect sense...cheers BD.

AstraOwner

It really depends on the horse and the race. Many aren't going to change a whole lot at this stage. In many cases extra places for e/w will be added on race day which you would miss out on now. Jockey bookings might be the biggest factor in changes things at this stage. AP's choice in the handicaps for example or Patrick Mullins' choice in the bumper. These will cause the horse to shorten, maybe significantly. And the ones they don't pick are more likely to drift a bit.

If you're dealing with favourites in the Championship races I'd wait it out. Bookies will be very, very eager for money on the day and I bet bigger prices will be available on most of them during the mornings.
If you're dealing with handicaps I'd probably go in now if it's an outsider. Get BOG.

But it really all does depend on the horse and the race.

Hulk Hands

BumperD wrote: »

Now. When final decs are done, price will likely shorten. It won't drift unless it's not fancied. Some are bog now so if it drifts, you'll get the bigger price.

Jaysus, are you messing? You will get a better price in the market on 95% of the horses on the morning of the race, somewhere between 9-12 am. How do people forget each year how competitive things get between the bookies on the day of the race. By no means should you back a horse today unless its some sort of silly enhancement or you're certain theres a big gamble happening, which is rare

BumperD

95%? Really?

DylanAFC

I'm relatively new to racing but I would have thought that you'll get better prices on the day in the big races but you'll get better prices now in the big handicaps? Someone feel free to correct me.

Hulk Hands

BumperD wrote: »

95%? Really?

If you can point me out 10 horses that are a shorter best price at 10am tomorrow than they were before decs this morn, ill happily say im wrong

BumperD

That's a little tricky now. The decs are done for tomorrow and I'm working all week so won't be able access odds checker at 10 am. I know they push out the prices on the morning, I get that, but I didn't know it was for pretty much every horse running. if it's that high, well there's no point taking an early price. The scenario I envisaged was say 30 entries ie like the supreme being cut to 12 declared. If 11 of the 12 declared are all offered at a bigger price the day of the race then that's much more than I expected.

I'll try it for one of the Friday races. I do not have time to go on at 10am on Friday for the gold cup but it would be a good experiment, not to prove a point, just to see if it holds up for that race.

Best prices at the moment, ignoring betfair:
Conti 7/2
Many clouds 9/1
Holywell 9/1
Djakadam 10/1
Road to riches 11/1
Carling ford lough 11/1
Coneygree 11/1
Lord Wind 12/1
Bobs worth 14/1
Siad place 20/1
Boston Bob 25/1
Sam Winner 33/1
Giant bolster 33/1
On his own 33/1
Don Cossack 33/1
Hourlong des 50/1
Home farm 100/1
River choice (who?) 250/1

Hulk Hands

I'll leave it go, I think we both have far better things to do with our limited time this week. I still think my point 'it's far better to wait until the morning of the race at Cheltenham" is impossible to argue against in the vast majority of cases. The most popular horses hes most likely to back can be got at ridiculously enhanced prices tomorrow for instance - Douvan (3/1) Un De Sceaux (evs), Annie (evs), Faugheen (6/4), TNO (5/1), etc etc. Anyway Good luck with your week

Edit: One horse who you wont be able to get after decs at 20/1 he currently is wounded warrior 3 places e/w RSA. Get on!

BumperD

I know the favs will be. So did the op. Anyway, good luck this week!

BumperD

I already lost money on the RSA - no way am I backing that race again!