Is the Euro on the rise?

BMmeow

Looking for informed opinions!

A lot of doom and gloom about the euro the past few months, but with the 4 month extension for Greece, will the Euro rise against the Dollar once again? Is Eur/USD parity still on the horizon?

Bernanke KOs Trichet

BMmeow wrote: »

Looking for informed opinions!

A lot of doom and gloom about the euro the past few months, but with the 4 month extension for Greece, will the Euro rise against the Dollar once again? Is Eur/USD parity still on the horizon?

The long term trajectory will be for the Euro to weaken further against USD/GBP.

BOE and Fed Res. will gradually be increasing interest rates in contrast with a stagnating Euro zone attempting to stimulate some growth through an extended period of looser monetary policy.

The long term success of QE has yet to be unequivocally determined but UK/US are growing at 2-3% per annum with unemployment of 4-5% in contrast to a stagnating euro zone with 10%+ unemployment.

The Euro Zone is firmly ensnared in a liquidity trap,will the looser monetary policy now be effective? Probably not because of the considerable delay combined with a lack of commitment to the policy. It is very similar to the delay in the Japanese policy until 2003 and the Euro Zone faces an extended period of stagnation at best and hence increasingly looser monetary policy for a considerable time.

Germany's fear of hyper-inflation and hence apprehension towards QE ("The independent ECB" implemented relatively conservative/traditional monetary policy) combined with an insistence on implementing deep contractionary fiscal policy has exacerbated and prolonged a disastrous economic predicament.

BMmeow

Bernanke KOs Trichet wrote: »

The long term trajectory will be for the Euro to weaken further against USD/GBP.

BOE and Fed Res. will gradually be increasing interest rates in contrast with a stagnating Euro zone attempting to stimulate some growth through an extended period of looser monetary policy.

The long term success of QE has yet to be unequivocally determined but UK/US are growing at 2-3% per annum with unemployment of 4-5% in contrast to a stagnating euro zone with 10%+ unemployment.

The Euro Zone is firmly ensnared in a liquidity trap,will the looser monetary policy now be effective? Probably not because of the considerable delay combined with a lack of commitment to the policy. It is very similar to the delay in the Japanese policy until 2003 and the Euro Zone faces an extended period of stagnation at best and hence increasingly looser monetary policy for a considerable time.

Germany's fear of hyper-inflation and hence apprehension towards QE ("The independent ECB" implemented relatively conservative/traditional monetary policy) combined with an insistence on implementing deep contractionary fiscal policy has exacerbated and prolonged a disastrous economic predicament.

but on the short term, is it likely the euro may rise in the next few months until the end of the bailout extension?

Bernanke KOs Trichet

Does a 4 month extension convey a reformed and decisive EU with political leadership and direction or a temporary measure as per usual?

For ever odd

Write down a list of what events or possible events that are going to effect the Euro over the next six months or so, and figure out what way you think the Euro will react to each event. It's not foolproof but a good way to see the bigger picture and at least you'll have an idea of what to expect.

ie. UK elections, with a possible referendum on leaving the EU. How would that effect the Euro?

BMmeow

ok on the short short term.. from now till May, likelihood of it going under 1.12? I would think if things with Greece settle down for now it may rise a little before the uk elections?

Im not that well read on this, so was just looking for more informed opinions. Im going the the US in June, just wondering what the state of the exchange rate might be!

Fizman

Very hard to see it rise with €60 billion being produced monthly from March through to September, regardless of what major news stories break.

BMmeow

Fizman wrote: »

Very hard to see it rise with €60 billion being produced monthly from March through to September, regardless of what major news stories break.

will it drop significantly beyond what it is now tho?

For ever odd

BMmeow wrote: »

ok on the short short term.. from now till May, likelihood of it going under 1.12? I would think if things with Greece settle down for now it may rise a little before the uk elections?

Im not that well read on this, so was just looking for more informed opinions. Im going the the US in June, just wondering what the state of the exchange rate might be!

BMmeow you have asked the same question a few times on different threads,
So in simple terms the exchange rate at close on Friday was 1.1381 that does not mean you will get that exchange rate from a bank. Have you looked at how you are changing your money and what commissions are involved?
You sound like your on a tight budget

BMmeow

For ever odd wrote: »

BMmeow you have asked the same question a few times on different threads,
So in simple terms the exchange rate at close on Friday was 1.1381 that does not mean you will get that exchange rate from a bank. Have you looked at how you are changing your money and what commissions are involved?
You sound like your on a tight budget

Thank you but Im very aware of the current rates and the sell rate in banks/PO. I'm simply wondering what the likelihood of the euro rising in the next few months is, so I can figure out when to covert money. If it were to go down further Id be kicking myself for not changing now, and vice versa... a rise of even 5c makes a difference when you're exchanging large amounts....

Amirani

Anybody who knows more than the rest of the market won't be posting in this thread, you're not going to get a conclusive set of advice.