National TV Awards Wednesday 21st January

insidertips

Best daytime show-This Morning

You heard it here first.

Thank me later.

Shane St.

price?

insidertips

Shane St. wrote: »

price?

Let me Google that for you.

1.61 on Betfair.

Want me to place the bet and collect the winnings while I am at it?

insidertips

I got on at 2.0 as soon as the market opened on Betfair.

But the odds shortened to 1.61 after I had lumped on.

1.62 is the best price across the board on oddschecker.

ianburke

on that too at william hill. lumped on at 7/4 when it opened and its 1/2 now. going to stick a few quid on the other options to guarantee i get my stake back if it loses. wouldnt want to lose a big stake on this market when the odds have swung so much in my favor

insidertips

ianburke wrote: »

on that too at william hill. lumped on at 7/4 when it opened and its 1/2 now. going to stick a few quid on the other options to guarantee i get my stake back if it loses. wouldnt want to lose a big stake on this market when the odds have swung so much in my favor

Its buying money. Enjoy your winnings.

Sure as night follows day.

ianburke

cheers man. i stuck a few bob on ur big brother tip. and a few quid on him to be top male. its tough to know how the votes will go though. hopkins is the one id worry about

insidertips

ianburke wrote: »

cheers man. i stuck a few bob on ur big brother tip. and a few quid on him to be top male. its tough to know how the votes will go though. hopkins is the one id worry about

I reckon its going to be a Hopkins v Chegwin final. The MEM's (middle England mums) decide who wins this. Since moving from Channel 4 to 5 t
he voting demographic has changed from teenage students to MEM's. If one looks at the winners list on Wiki it reflects this. MEM's favourites like Denise Welch and Jim Davidson; they are the national treasures of the 30-40 year old MEM, not the 19-21 year old students.
With Hopkins v Chegwin its a vote for nasty v nice, and the MEM's like a nice winner.
Chegwin has been in showbiz for 50 years, he knows how to play the game. He isn't getting the edits now due to the trouble makers such as Perez and Hopkins, but as numbers thin out over the next 2 weeks, he will get more airtime; and nice edits mean votes in the final.
As always, this is won in the house; not on preconceived ideas about house mates.
Chegwin wins this, sure as night follows day.

ianburke

nice reasoning. will u be putting up a lay at odds on to cover ur stake or anything? sum1 always seems to trade at ridiculous short odds and then end up losing. i might stick up a small lay at 2.0 to get my stake back

insidertips

I reckon the eviction twist tonight will be keeping Perez in somehow.

Alicia will be evicted Friday most likely.

The producers will do what ever it takes to keep Perez in as he is TV gold for their ratings.

insidertips

ianburke wrote: »

nice reasoning. will u be putting up a lay at odds on to cover ur stake or anything? sum1 always seems to trade at ridiculous short odds and then end up losing. i might stick up a small lay at 2.0 to get my stake back

Personally I never get involved with the lay market. Reason being that one can have a great run laying outsiders. But then one comes along at big odds and wipes weeks of bank out in one go. Laying at low odds is more risky, yes the liability is low; but statistically favourites win more than outsiders so its more risk. Laying an outsider like Cami is safer than Hopkins obviously; but then look at the massive liability incurred for a small return.
I think its safer to back favourites. Say one covers the top 5 favourites in this market, its safer than laying the 5 outsiders as upsets do happen.
Take Hamilton and McIlroy to win BBC SPOTY for example. McIloy was odds on from the market opening, and yet Hamilton traded at 7.0 when the market closed; and won.
Many Hamilton layer got burned on that one, despite it looking like a dead cert McIlray would win.
This evening MEM's will see a nice edit for Chegwin; slow and steady wins the race. Kavan got drunk and layed into Chegwin. So he can now play the victim; Mr Nice getting bullied. A few tears in the diary room and its all over. The MEM's will love all that. Nasty Kavana, nice Chegwin. His odds will hold at under 5.0 and steadily shorten until the final 6th February.

insidertips

Back on topic; National TV Awards tonight.
The odds are steadily shortening on This Morning to win best daytime show as predicted.
The market knows the result already, and thousands are being lumped on.
When one sees the online bookies capping the bets down to nothing, they know.
By this stage in the day, the majority of telephone votes are in; online votes are in.
So the results are already known. It doesn't come down to the hundreds of votes on this market, the winner leads by thousands of votes.
This Morning has won it already.

ianburke

safely landed:) just noticed it in my bet history there!

4068ac1elhodqr

insidertips wrote: »

Best daytime show-This Morning You heard it here first.

Nice spot, am a fan of these 'Novelty' selections, didn't jump on it as too short for me at x1.5. Was interesting to see that on Oddschecker midday to see massive 98.9% selection/popularity for this, so was good cert.

Can remember the odds for pope market went from 66/1 down to 16/1 for Jorge (francie) in the few hours before the final smoke came out.

Only a couple of bookies allow accum's on these markets e.g. StanJames.

Had a 6-figure return pending on the back of a few bob if 'Pete' had of been selected to complete a 7-fold. The prophecies were slightly altered that day...

Not too sure on Keith for CBB15 as yet as a few of the B-C1/2 dolls may vote Calum's way (going short).

whiteshorts

Good call.