Majority of Fine Gael TDs want some independence, fairer speaking rights

hatrickpatrick

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-of-fine-gael-tds-want-whip-relaxed-survey-finds-1.2063495

Paraphrased:

A survey of Fine Gael TDs, carried out as part of research on Dáil reform commissioned by Taoiseach Enda Kenny, has found that three out of every four deputies favour loosening the whip system. Mr Kenny asked one of his TDs, Eoghan Murphy (Dublin South East), to examine and investigate areas of possible reform of the Dáil, further to the measures already implemented by the Government.
As part of the research, Mr Murphy carried out a survey of Fine Gael TDs, both backbenchers and Ministers, on various possible changes to how the chamber is run. Mr Murphy has now submitted his results – which found that 74 per cent “indicated a need to loosen the party whip in some form” – to his Fine Gael colleagues. However, it does not specify under what circumstances the whip should be relaxed.
Former party TD Lucinda Creighton has indicated her new party will adopt a more relaxed approach to the whip system, allowing a free vote on issues of conscience such as abortion. Ms Creighton lost the Fine Gael whip along with other colleagues after voting against the Government on the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill. Last month Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett also said he believed there should be a free vote on issues of conscience.

Some senior Government sources have suggested there may be loosening of the whip in the coming months, but no concrete proposals have emerged. Others in Government have warned that the current system is likely to stay as it is.

...

The same number of TDs who said the whip system needed to be relaxed – 74 per cent – also said the Dáil could be organised more efficiently, with changes such as allowing backbenchers to ask questions of the Taoiseach during Leaders’ Questions, as is the case with the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions in Westminster.
More than half also supported the election of the Ceann Comhairle by secret ballot, as recommended by the Constitutional Convention. Of those who responded, 58 per cent also that believed speaking time in the Dáil should be divided equally between all TDs and not split up among political parties and groups, as is currently the case.

Hugely significant poll in my opinion. Rabbits and headlights. Good thing it wasn't a Labour poll or I would have made an appallingly horrific "Rabbites and headlights" pun

So now we see that the current dictatorial system we have does not, in fact, sit well with government TDs. So much for all those who suggest that people subscribe to it entirely willingly. I wonder how different the results of this poll might have been were it not anonymous, and were it possible for TDs to be punished for speaking their minds just like they are in actual Dail debates?

It's fast becoming clear now that the writing is very much on the wall for the omnipresent three-line whip in Irish politics. Of course I'm only delighted. I have a prediction to make which I'd love to see people's opinions on:

The government have now realized that people's swing towards independents has little enough to do with specific issues of policy or anger and a lot more to do with frustration with the underlying system of doing politics espoused by the establishment parties. Whereas just six months ago the idea of reforming that system was regarded as unthinkable, with eejits like Pat Rabbitte attempting to defend it in the newspapers and instead unwittingly raising further questions about it in the mind of the average punter, it now appears to be crumbling. The government has realized that this march of reform is now unstoppable and that they're going to have to make some serious decisions in order to stay in the race.

I can't help but be irresistibly reminded of that cartoon depicting Samsung and Apple racing towards the finish line while Nokia puffed and panted breathlessly several metres behind. In my opinion, the government have learned this lesson far too late.
What's going to happen is some shock concessions on the party whip (or perhaps some promised concessions which will be significantly watered down if they actually do get into power again, like so many other pre election promises) in order to try and claw back some support for independents. And make no mistake, this will be done not out of concern for the wellbeing of Irish politics or for the will of the people, but out of desperation in trying to stay in the game.

The question is, will the Irish people realize that this is a cop out, a gambit, and a bit of opportunistic catch-up? Or will they see it for the cynical ploy that it is rather than the meaningful change of heart it will surely be presented as?
Obviously I'm hoping for the latter, but only time will tell. What's particularly cool about this, however, is that hot on the heels of the Irish Water victories so far, we've actually managed to drive a point far enough into government that they're willing to break with what they want and do what the people seem to want. That alone is cause for celebration, regardless of the next set of developments.

The phrase is surely becoming as tiresome to some as "going forward" and "in the current climate" became in 2009 (with "the devil is in the detail" coming in close behind, I'm sure) - but it bears mentioning one more time: Interesting times are surely ahead.

Fr Tod Umptious

I think you are reading a bit too much into this.

Come election day it will not be the whip that will be the hot topic on door steps.

It will be the state of the economy and the country in general and who are the safest set of hands to deal with it.

BoJack Horseman

Still worth considering though.

It also shows, that if TDs are just vote button jockeys, having fewer across the board would have no negative impact.

oscarBravo

I wouldn't mind seeing the whip relaxed. The main reason I don't see it happening is because we have an opposition and a commentariat who would pounce on every instance of a government TD voting against the party line as a major embarrassment for the government, or the cracks starting to show, or blood in the water, or a sign of weakness to be exploited, or...

I think a firm whip hand is an unfortunate side effect of a stunning lack of maturity and intelligence in the Oireachtas as a whole, where the opposition doesn't seem to believe it has any role other than to precipitate the downfall of the government at the earliest opportunity.

hmmm

The whip protects politicians in tough votes. "I had to vote to close the hospital or the whip would be withdrawn and we'd never get the ring road" etc.

I agree it's a maturity thing, but it's as much about the short term and parochial thinking of the electorate as it is the politicians responsibility.

Most Independents are not running on a platform of changing the system of governance, they have the usual old parochial "keep the hospital open/more money for Westmeath/down with rural taxes" type platforms. I dread to think what the next Dail will look like, it will be chaos - and negotiating with these gobsheens will be impossible.

The_Captain

I think it's hurt Fine Gael for the next election. When your local FG candidate comes knocking, you know it doesn't matter a fig who he is or what he believes in, because a vote for him is just a vote for Enda

hatrickpatrick

oscarBravo wrote: »

I wouldn't mind seeing the whip relaxed. The main reason I don't see it happening is because we have an opposition and a commentariat who would pounce on every instance of a government TD voting against the party line as a major embarrassment for the government, or the cracks starting to show, or blood in the water, or a sign of weakness to be exploited, or...

I agree entirely, and I'd lump the media in with the opposition there as well. It's a little like how in a coalition government, you can't apparently have just one instance of the junior partner refusing to support a proposal publicly without calls of "general election time!"

That paradigm is as unhealthy for Irish politics as the party whip system - in my opinion, the former is probably born out of the latter, in that because the party whip has made everyone so used to "all or nothing" party politics, the same moronic sentiment is applied to everything that happens in government. As in, the government either wins every vote or the coalition either agree on everything, or the four horsemen of the apocalypse march across the skies.

Personally I would hope that in a Dail full of whipless independents, the idea that government is all or nothing would quickly dissolve in the minds of the media and the public. It would have to really, if there was no meaningful distinction drawn between "opposition" and "government", if a TD was simply a TD whose vote was to be earned by the cabinet rather than counted upon, I believe the paradigm of all or nothing would be so unworkable that even the establishment media would have to stop peddling it.

They would look foolish indeed if they repeatedly heralded the end of a political era just because one bill failed to pass, and yet the Dail repeatedly shrugged and moved on to the next issue or to a reworking of the original issue. As it should be, as it should always have been.

hatrickpatrick

hmmm wrote: »

The whip protects politicians in tough votes. "I had to vote to close the hospital or the whip would be withdrawn and we'd never get the ring road" etc.

Agreed, this is why I find it so unhealthy for democracy.

Most Independents are not running on a platform of changing the system of governance, they have the usual old parochial "keep the hospital open/more money for Westmeath/down with rural taxes" type platforms.

I'm not so sure. The rise of independents, the fact that everyone talking about forming a loose alliance is focusing on lessening or abolishing the whip, and the fact that both parties in government are now talking about the whip publicly signifies that public discourse over its poisonous influence on Irish politics has reached a level wherein the establishment can no longer ignore it. You know they wouldn't be talking about it if they felt they could get away with not talking about it.

I dread to think what the next Dail will look like, it will be chaos - and negotiating with these gobsheens will be impossible.

It will indeed be chaos, it will move slowly, and every bill will have to earn support from TDs (and by extension those writing letters to them, the people) rather than being rubber stamped. Compared to the current system, bring it on.

View

The survey is a load of hokum frankly.

3 out of 4 TDs is a clear, absolute majority within the FG parliamentary party, yet those 3 out of 4 TDs have never even attempted (much less failed in an attempt) to introduce and vote in favour of measures to relax the FG party whip system. In this case, as in so many others, actions speak louder than words.

As a previous poster said, TDs are happy to have a whip system to blame when tough votes come around.

The whip system can be changed any time the TDs want it and/or the electorate can vote in TDs who support a loose whip system. Neither are at the end of the day particilarly interested in doing so.

hatrickpatrick

View wrote: »

The survey is a load of hokum frankly.

3 out of 4 TDs is a clear, absolute majority within the FG parliamentary party, yet those 3 out of 4 TDs have never even attempted (much less failed in an attempt) to introduce and vote in favour of measures to relax the FG party whip system. In this case, as in so many others, actions speak louder than words.

In a climate in which challenging the status quo is frowned upon at best and harshly dealt with at worst, this isn't too surprising.

As a previous poster said, TDs are happy to have a whip system to blame when tough votes come around.

Correct, which is why I'll still be voting independent regardless of what "reforms" parties introduce in their desperation coming up to the next election. The reason this is interesting is that in my view is signals that the establishment is getting a little worried, if not more than a little.

The whip system can be changed any time the TDs want it and/or the electorate can vote in TDs who support a loose whip system. Neither are at the end of the day particilarly interested in doing so.

The fact that every opinion poll is now showing Independents as the largest chunk of the pie would suggest that the public are interested, even if party TDs are not.

View

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

In a climate in which challenging the status quo is frowned upon at best and harshly dealt with at worst, this isn't too surprising.

And who are the people "frowning upon" and "harshly dealing with" these challenges to the status quo?

Why, it is those 3 out of 4 FG TDs who claim to favour a more relaxed approach to such issues... :-)

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Correct, which is why I'll still be voting independent regardless of what "reforms" parties introduce in their desperation coming up to the next election.

That of course is your perogative but such independent politicians are largely there on a "feel good" factor for their local area. That's fine if you want politicians who will avoid favouring something (as change definitely costs votes) but of little interest if you actually regard our system as imperfect and wish to see it evolve.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The reason this is interesting is that in my view is signals that the establishment is getting a little worried, if not more than a little.

It may well do but I'd say the politicians were feeding the "right answer" back to the questioner. A bit like the normal case where they'll promise to cut your taxes while increasing spending in your area (and don't you worry about the math on that because we won't need a bailout until the election after the next one).

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The fact that every opinion poll is now showing Independents as the largest chunk of the pie would suggest that the public are interested, even if party TDs are not.

That could be the case but it still remains a minority position I should point out.

My personal view is a lot of these "independents" and their voters are FF "gene pool" supporters - they can't bring themselves to vote for other parties or to return to FF - yet - but will hang on to see if FF recovers and jump on board if it does.

Remember most of rural Ireland has had FF V's FG contests for decades - the strength of the independents has more to do with the collapse of the FF vote rather than a sudden commitment to "indpendents" per se.

Godge

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The fact that every opinion poll is now showing Independents as the largest chunk of the pie would suggest that the public are interested, even if party TDs are not.

Here is an alternate take on the rise of Independents:


http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "

hmmm

View wrote: »

My personal view is a lot of these "independents" and their voters are FF "gene pool" supporters - they can't bring themselves to vote for other parties or to return to FF - yet - but will hang on to see if FF recovers and jump on board if it does.

FF/FG/Labour perhaps, who are never going to vote SF. How else do you register your dissatisfaction in polls or inconsequential elections?

Sand

Godge wrote: »

Here is an alternate take on the rise of Independents:


http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "

Has undecided been removed as an option?

Godge

Sand wrote: »

Has undecided been removed as an option?

No, it hasn't.

What the pollster appears to be saying is that normally between elections undecideds are as high as 25%. This time round they are only at 12%. He seems to believe that many of them are saying "others" and being counted in the independent vote but may not vote that way in the end.

I think they are rather unsure because in the analysis of another poll, they suggest that the independent vote is as firm as other parties so the two analyses taken together don't make sense.

For the next six to nine months, it is really about the trends, come September the election will be near and it will be time to focus in more on where the votes are going.

Sand

Then it is just aimless speculation. You could make the same argument that people didn't really mean it when they said "Fine Gael" either. People had the option to choose "Undecided". They chose "Independent".

My aimless speculation would be that in previous years, people would always vote for a party. "Undecided" was simply a holding pattern as people despaired of all the parties and simply voted for the least worst option on the day. Non-Party candidates were dismissed entirely as an option.

What's changed is that people are now seeing independants as a realistic option. All of the parties with the exception of SF have recently had a turn at driving the country into the ground (I don't think SF need a turn for us to know how that will turn out) and a huge part of the problem has been the poor standards of governance inherent to the whipped parties. Bad legislation rushed through without debate or review. Corruption and low standards continue to be protected from accountability. The civil service continues to operate believing it works for the Minister rather than for the citizens of Ireland.

Voters have been trying to vote for reform in the last few years. The parties have been ignoring the message and delivering business as usual, so now people are turning to Independants. If the "Undecided" vote has declined its because less people are glumly looking at the list of parties wondering which gang of thieves and morons is the least harmful in power.

hatrickpatrick

Sand wrote: »

a huge part of the problem has been the poor standards of governance inherent to the whipped parties. Bad legislation rushed through without debate or review. Corruption and low standards continue to be protected from accountability. The civil service continues to operate believing it works for the Minister rather than for the citizens of Ireland.

This I feel is the central point which a lot of people are missing. People are always talking about recovery, living standards etc as if these are literally the only factors involved in national wellbeing. While they are important issues, on a fundamental level people also want to feel like their government works for them and works as well as it can. Self serving and incompetent practises by those in power are going to make people angry even in the wealthiest, most prosperous nation on Earth.

As I'm always saying, you don't have to be poor to balk at inequality, just as you don't have to be mugged to have a low view of thieves.