Milan San Remo - Bouhanni?

pelevin

Winter is rolling along like a badly rusted/well oiled bicycle & so it's naturally time to start thinking of throwing money away on bets you've convinced yourself make loads of cool intellectual sense. . . . And so I noticed earlier Bouhanni at 14/1 with PP for Milan San Remo & I suppose having seen him dominate the Giro sprints once Kittel dropped out, & more impressively look good in the Vuelta even on the odd finish when the only others around him were the mountain goat types . . . well he seems like he'd have every right to be there in any kind of group finish with the question maybe has he a pedigree over that length of course. Any thoughts?

CptMackey

It's hard to know really. The monuments and classics etc are really hard to predict. I haven't seen the route for this Years one but is it favouring the sprinters?

Can't wait for the season to kick off again

pelevin

Last year the intent was to very much move it away from favouring the sprinters even to the point of Cav & the gang not even initially entering, but I think the main climb they were inserting had to be taken out because of landslides or some such, & so it ended in a pretty large but select group including Cavendish & Sagan, & with Kristoff winning the sprint. I think this year they've left things alone & so the likes of Cav & Degenkolb are among the favorites with Sagan outright favourite - though he might even have preferred the tougher projected route of last year I'd have thought.

Lusk_Doyle

Unless there is a large group together at the finish he will be nowhere near a win. The last few hills are simply too hard for his type when ridden at speed with punchy riders.

pelevin

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Unless there is a large group together at the finish he will be nowhere near a win. The last few hills are simply too hard for his type when ridden at speed with punchy riders.

Though that's why I mentioned the Vuelta where for instance a quick look shows on Stage 3 with a tough closing climb M Matthews winning from Dan Martin & Joaquin Rodriguez & a group on the same time of mostly GC contenders like Contador, Froome & Quintana 7 seconds ahead of the bunch with Bouhanni actually finishing with the big guns 8th on the stage.
Stage 13 on a similar tough finish the climbers Dani Navarro & Moreno were 1 & 2 just ahead of a very select group 5 seconds down with Valverde 4th followed by Bouhanni in 5th! It stuck in my head cos I remember Sean Kelly wondering why Bouhanni's team were working hard near the end of maybe both those stages as Kelly couldn't imagine Bouhanni having any hope of being in the thick of such action.

on_the_nickel

Read somewhere during the week Cofidis and Bouhanni went out to recce the route of MSR. Worth a shot, I'd think.

BTW, he's 18/1 on Bet Victor.

Brian?

It's hard to see past Sagan, he has to win a monument soon and MSR probably suits him the best.

TheBlaaMan

Watch out for Haussler. He's been second in MSR, losing to Cav by a tyre depth. He is a huge fan of this race in particular and really wants to win it. He has just this morning become Australian RR champion......

pelevin

on_the_nickel wrote: »

Read somewhere during the week Cofidis and Bouhanni went out to recce the route of MSR. Worth a shot, I'd think.

BTW, he's 18/1 on Bet Victor.

Slippery slope and all that but thanks to your pointer have now started an account with them after seeing their Giro odds of Contador of 7/4 - & they'll match my opening bet up to 25e. Tobh as of now with none of the other main men making much noise about going for the Giro, barring injury or mishap, Contador seems to me an absolute shoe-in for victory there, so 25euros on Contador there for me. On that front for instance they have Froome at 2nd favourite but he's declared he's not even riding the Giro.

ZiabR

Brian? wrote: »

It's hard to see past Sagan, he has to win a monument soon and MSR probably suits him the best.

I would agree with this. He will also be wanting to make an immediate impact for his new team.

irishrover99

I believe the run in after the final climb has been shortened by a few hundred meters so that will make it a bit easier for a lone break away or group to stay away.

MPFG

Well what about Ben Swift for MSR...He was on the podium last year and he is really targeting it

Also MTN Quebka are going all out for it as well with Cholek , EBH, Goss , etc....could pull it off

I think Porte will be on the podium at Giro
I think Wiggo will be on the podium ( not sure which step) at PR
I still see Cancellera wining RVV

Dan Martin will win FW and would be surprised if Betencur& Purito are not on podium with him

Outside bet for an Ardeeenes classic most probably Amstel Gold is Tim Wellens

Just my musings

oh yes and Nibali really wants to win MSR or LBL...show he is a rounded rider

pelevin

MPFG wrote: »

oh yes and Nibali really wants to win MSR or LBL...show he is a rounded rider

I've done very well out of Nibali the last couple of years so I think I'll throw something small on him for MSR just for the sake of it. He'll always have a go anyway & will presumably have much better legs this year than last when he still made a gutsy effort.