Who would be Taoiseach in FF/FG Coalition

xMallx

If both FF & FG have 35ish seats each, how would they decide which of the parties would have the office of Taoiseach ?

eoinbn

xMallx wrote: »

If both FF & FG have 35ish seats each, how would they decide which of the parties would have the office of Taoiseach ?

They would need 42 each to form a government.

They would probably share the office over the 5 years.

Riskymove

eoinbn wrote: »

They would need 42 each to form a government.

They would probably share the office over the 5 years.

40 each for a majority (or 79 total if you exclude CC)

Larbre34

Simon Coveney will be in charge of an FG, FF, rebooters and Sir Winston Churchtown-ites coalition with a majority of 5.

Also dont forget next time out they only need 79+1 for a majority government

seamus

xMallx wrote: »

If both FF & FG have 35ish seats each, how would they decide which of the parties would have the office of Taoiseach ?

By bartering for the key cabinet positions, e.g. if FF get the Taoiseach, then FG take Tanaiste, Finance & Justice.

There's a pretty good chance either way that this is Enda's first and only time in the big chair. If a FG/FF coalition were to come about, I think the most public-friendly government would be one with Martin and Varadkar up front and Kenny taking a ministerial position.
Leaving aside the perception of Kenny being a weak and uncharismatic leader, his face back in the chair would be a reminder of the years of austerity under him. As necessary as they were, they carry negative sentiment with them.

Kenny is also old blood (the oldest blood, in fact). Martin is no spring chicken but he doesn't carry the same smell of the old guard about him. And Varadkar of course is still a teenager in political terms, but a lot of people would look to him as a good way to try and engage with the younger generations.

alaimacerc

I think the upper end of expectation of FF seats is really pushing the envelope to the lower end of what'd demand a "rotating taoiseach". Meeting in the middle in the 35 vicinity, as the OP (somewhat) says.

Of course, both are pure guesswork. FF might outperform polls. If you're going to pull the stroke of voting for the arch stroke-pullers, you might as well have the good manners to perform the decent further stroke of lying the pollsters about it. Plus the manic fragmentation of the vote will tend to enhance the "big party bonus". Conversely, FF will be in the relatively strong position that even if they're only the third largest party, they're the only one that can plausibly seek an agreement with either of the other two. Threatening to walk out and deal with SF instead is bound to screw out a few more concessions out of FG

Definitely agree that Kenny's premiership wouldn't survive any such deal.

Muahahaha

seamus wrote: »

Kenny is also old blood (the oldest blood, in fact). Martin is no spring chicken but he doesn't carry the same smell of the old guard about him. And Varadkar of course is still a teenager in political terms, but a lot of people would look to him as a good way to try and engage with the younger generations.

Im not too sure about that, he was at the Fianna Fail cabinet table for 14 years. While he may not be as tarnished as other members of the party he has still yet to answer how that money ended up in his wifes account.

Poulgorm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Im not too sure about that, he was at the Fianna Fail cabinet table for 14 years. While he may not be as tarnished as other members of the party he has still yet to answer how that money ended up in his wifes account.

?????

goose2005

Poulgorm wrote: »

?????

Owen O'Callaghan donated £5,000 in 1991 and for some reason the money was lodged in Martin's wife's a/c. First he said it was for the Atlantic Pond Restoration Fund, then later that it was a political donation.

Godge

seamus wrote: »

By bartering for the key cabinet positions, e.g. if FF get the Taoiseach, then FG take Tanaiste, Finance & Justice.

There's a pretty good chance either way that this is Enda's first and only time in the big chair. If a FG/FF coalition were to come about, I think the most public-friendly government would be one with Martin and Varadkar up front and Kenny taking a ministerial position.
Leaving aside the perception of Kenny being a weak and uncharismatic leader, his face back in the chair would be a reminder of the years of austerity under him. As necessary as they were, they carry negative sentiment with them.

Kenny is also old blood (the oldest blood, in fact). Martin is no spring chicken but he doesn't carry the same smell of the old guard about him. And Varadkar of course is still a teenager in political terms, but a lot of people would look to him as a good way to try and engage with the younger generations.

Think of it a different way. For the election of 2021, would FF want a strong relatively young charismatic leader of FG as Taoiseach or would they want Enda Kenny having sat there for five years and be able to remind people of water charges and GSOC?

If it is not Kenny, and they can't have it themselves, then FF would want some other old sod from FG, Richard Bruton at 25/1 anyone?

conorh91

Godge wrote: »

Think of it a different way. For the election of 2021, would FF want a strong relatively young charismatic leader of FG as Taoiseach or would they want Enda Kenny having sat there for five years and be able to remind people of water charges and GSOC?

The problem is that you're using far-sighted logic.

Politicians don't do that. The bug in the democratic system is that senior politicians are rewarded for short-term vision. They only focus on the next election.

And if the past few years have taught us anything, it is to highlight how short-sighted our politicians tend to be.

They repeatedly borrow from future success in order to create short-term pleasure.

The only time this didn't happen was when we had the Troika in, or when we were threatened with the Troika.

Idbatterim

Fg would do a lot better if they got rid of the joke Kenny! although they know they have to go into coalition next time round, maybe they simply dont care about the seat outcome once they are the largest party, how else could you explain that joke Kenny still being in place? OR he is a dead man walking and as timing is everything, they dont want to ditch him just yet, they will get far better mileage out of it doing it closer to the election...