how do you pick a winner

Letyourselfgo

With all the xmas racing coming up (heading to Lexus day myself) what is the one factor above all that you consider before putting on a bet or not and why?
Bit of fun

BumperD

Whether the horse is strong or weak in the betting market.

forgotten password

i just go by the name

also back the favourite and a long shot


hope this helps

Rock Lesnar

Well i usually follow a horse or horses who ive won on before and see if they have ran well recently, i follow Gordon Elliott to, thats what ive done last few weeks, working out ok,

Nulty

the state of the ground can mean you can dismiss some horses and thats always my starting point, especially in extremes

Letyourselfgo

I've done my homework for the King George and have come to the conclusion the winner is either Menorah or SC, I would back the two of them but...

SC is slightly over priced IMO and I think backing a horse (no matter how much you think he'll win) at your wrong price is key. I've never had that kind of restraint though and would always back it anyway.

Haven't backed SC yet though

handsfree2

I mostly fail to pick the winner.

Peintre Celebre

I can't remember the last time I backed a horse in a group race or any sort of non handicap (think it may have been Olympic Glory in the Lockinge)

Patience is the number one biggest factor in betting to make long term profit, patience and discipline. If you wake up in the morning and say 'It's Saturday I must throw on a few bets' you are (or so I'd say) in the wrong frame of thought. The only horses I back are one's who I have had my eye on in the past or strike me as being extremely well handicapped. It's been about 3 weeks since I had a bet because there's been nothing I've overly fancied. There have been many horses I'm following that have run in the meantime but it's important to know, or at least to think you know, the horse's optimised trips or going. For example: Clockmaker in England has ran a couple of times in England the last few weeks, every time he runs I keep a close eye on him of late because he is ready to strike soon, and as soon as he goes over 7 I'll more than likely be on depending on the race. It takes discipline not to give in and chance him even over the six furlongs he's been running over. On one hand you could have a smaller bet 'in case' he won but those small bets add up. You have to ask yourself would you forgive yourself if he won over a trip or conditions that aren't his optimum. For me it's a yes because the risk does not outweigh the rewards. For example if he went and won at 8/1 it would be frustrating but if you think he's more of a 20/1 shot over six furlongs then I'm more than happy to write it off and move on.

This happened a few weeks ago in a non handicap. I've had my eye on Third Intention for a long time and had marked him down for a max bet as soon as he goes in a handicap, anything up to 2 1/2 miles on a flat track or 2 1/2 around Cheltenham. He was entered in a Listed race a few weeks ago where he hacked up and duly went up 8lbs. I'll probably never back him off that mark

One thing I stick to is not following up on horses. I can't remember the last horse who I backed to win last time out and then backed again to follow up. Nearly all the bets I have are on horses coming down in the handicap, I'm usually happy enough to watch them as they're going up, unless I thought they had an absolute tonne in hand last time out and their increased rating didn't reflect this.

Jockeys don't necessarily put me off unless I think they are an absolutely woeful rider, this would usually only occur with some inexperienced ones who I specifically saw give some shockers. Trainers form is something I would consider thought it's not necessarily the be all and end all. Sometimes trainers' horses can be running fine without winning. It may be that they're just a bit unlucky, I'd only be extremely cautious if the majority are running woefully, horses being beaten out of sight left right and centre seemingly with no excuses.

Most of my winners come from low grade all weather handicaps. One massive issue is the draw. More often than not I won't be backing a horse if he's drawn above 10. It's not to say I flat out won't but I'll err on the side of caution though still consider the risks v rewards. This mostly works out well. My standout error in this was a few weeks ago- having told people all week Stoichkhov was the bet of the month one Friday night at Dundalk. My exact words Thursday morning when the draw was made and he was 13 ''Hold fire, let it run and back it next week''. You can imagine my sorrow when he won at a BSP of 40. In hindsight 40 was still about 20 points too big even with the gelding's draw but it's easy to say afterward.

The other big factor is the price. Value value value. Some people will argue that picking winners is the most important aspect when betting. This is obviously a fundamental part, but an individual backing consistently falsely or under-priced horses will lose in the long term. The argument I make to people is: You may think a horse will win, but at what point does it become a bad bet? The horse is 5/4, at what price do you say the value is gone, do you still back it at evens, 1/2, 1/3,1/5? Thinking a horse will win is just a part of your bet. Every time I go to back a horse I have a tissue price and I have a price in my head that is the minimum I'll take. If I want at least 8/1 on a horse I will not take 7/1. Sometimes you miss out on the winner but it's all about the long term. There will be more in the future.


The value argument is one that a lot of people disagree on. Kevin Blake outlines it very well in his book It Can Be Done and is well worth a read. There's a reason all successful punters will talk about value and why it's one of Timeform's key analytical tools


One other thing: You have to understand each bet as being a long term plan. People attempting to land one big pot will more than likely be searching in vain all of their lives. Long term consistent profit is the ultimate holy grail. Win singles are the only bets I have done for years and I'm much better off because of it. We all hear stories about the fella down the pub getting 4 up on his lucky 15. I wonder how much of that he'll give back trying to replicate it over the next 20 years. Probably about 5000%. A losing bet isn't the be all and end all. I very rarely even think of a losing bet once it's done, I know there'll be more winners to come. I could lose a couple of tonne getting chinned on the line and you'd never know. Yes it's a kick in the balls but a momentary setback. There is no better feeling than a horse winning when you've had your eye on him and have held fire until he got his optimised conditions. Seanie, Duke of Lucca, Prince of Burma, Shifting Star, Houblon des Obeaux all big winners following serious patience. It's nice to think of them but also important not to gloat in them. It's important not to be too complacent or emotional. Bet on what you think is likely to happen, not what you want to. It can be easy to let emotions cloud your judgement. This is the same reason why a 20/1 winner in a class 6 at Catterick would give me the same satisfaction of a 30 runner handicap at the festival

Just my two cents, hope it helps

BumperD

A comprehensive two cents.

braddun

I see what the bookkies are backing

see what odds they give,


one time I asked the person at the entrance,he knew the winner

braddun

I see what the bookkies are backing

see what odds they give,


one time I asked the person at the entrance,he knew the winner

wackokid

Its a pity Painte Celebre don't give us a horse or two to watch or even back over the festive season?

Good advice is all well and grand but.....................................

Peintre Celebre

wackokid wrote: »

Its a pity Painte Celebre don't give us a horse or two to watch or even back over the festive season?

Good advice is all well and grand but.....................................

Backed one today at what will be huge odds but I'm taking BSP so keeping it close to my chest.

Chanced Heaney in the Paddy Power tomorrow. Took a small bit of 50 on the exchange ante post. Could run well at a big price but it's a hugely open race

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

With all the xmas racing coming up (heading to Lexus day myself) what is the one factor above all that you consider before putting on a bet or not and why?
Bit of fun

I just go Eenie, Meenie, Minie, Mo, with Mo being my choice!

oPATCHo

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Patience is the number one biggest factor in betting to make long term profit, patience and discipline.

Totally agree. Lost a lot of money because I felt I needed to bet on every single race

I started to use a tracker last year, and never looked back. Most of them have been added because I felt that they have lost but would go on to win next time out - going was against them, or they were hammered, or they are being aimed at a bigger race in the near future.

Venetia Williams form with handicap chasers, bottom weight over heavy is very strong. I always take note, particularly between November and Jan.

I've been a keen follower of a change of head gear or first time head gear.

In terms of betting, I tend to find value with my single bets (10/1 plus) whilst my accumulators tend to go on shot favourites. I hardly play short singles (anything else than 5/1).

Trends also play a vital part. For the 2014 KG, Conti and Dynaste scored very highly (hitting 6 out of 7 trends), whereas Champagne Fever scored lowly (hitting 2 out of 7). The result says it all. In additional, both Conti and Dynaste were sporting head gear. I had backed Conti anti post in 2 accumulators, both having Conti as the last runner. I didnt have a single on him today, and couldnt have at those prices, so happen I stuck to my methods and had him to bring in my accumulators

Peintre Celebre

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Backed one today at what will be huge odds but I'm taking BSP so keeping it close to my chest.

Chanced Heaney in the Paddy Power tomorrow. Took a small bit of 50 on the exchange ante post. Could run well at a big price but it's a hugely open race

Never before have I been more upset with a winner. Horse won alright but the BSP was half of what I could have had with the bookies. Shortfall of 253, sick

jimjamcos

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Never before have I been more upset with a winner. Horse won alright but the BSP was half of what I could have had with the bookies. Shortfall of 253, sick

Did you post the horse on here?

Peintre Celebre

jimjamcos wrote: »

Did you post the horse on here?

No but ft9 and colonel sanders are aware of who it was.

ft9

he backed it alright at betfair starting price. Hence the reason he didn't share

It was forty foot tom.

Rock Lesnar

Didn't have a bet today but there is 3 horses tomorrow that i backed last time out and will back them again, Groody hill and Grand Jesture in the PP chase and Monbeg Dude in the welsh national.

Shemale

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Never before have I been more upset with a winner. Horse won alright but the BSP was half of what I could have had with the bookies. Shortfall of 253, sick

Is BSP, Betfair Starting Price? I have used their sportsbook and they do a price boost so you can take the sportsbook price and they enhance it if the exchange SP is higher.

tomaussie

1 - The going
2 - Trainer form
3 - Course form
4 - Distance
5 - Class of race previously contested

When I get back to civilisation I was thinking of doing a 'one a day' thread.

It would involve picking a race every day and applying your own logic and strategy and putting up your selection an reasons why.

Think it might be interesting.

supremenovice

When it comes to The Cheltenham Festival, I always delve into the trends and previous course form of horses.
Its amazing how the same top horses may underperform through the winter and blossom at Prestbury Park in March.
Good recent examples of Festival specialists are Lord Windermere, Jezki and Balthazar King and Albertas Run.

Shemale

I have really lost my dicipline and have been backing in the majority of races on a day which is the quick route to the poor house save for maybe in the big festivals. Also NEVER change your mind.

Yesterday I really fancied 4 horses, I backed 3 -Ptit Zig(w), Caid De Berlais (ew) and Rock on Ruby (w) and changed my mind about Mon Parrain. I got greedy and along with the above 3 put loads of other horses to try get a decent accumulator, while the singles went in, Mon Parrain won at 25s who I missed cause I changed my mind.

Net result a change of mind, chasing a big win and backed in nearly every race resulted in me losing 35% of my bank instead of being nicely up.