Vodafone rumoured to buy Liberty Global

cunnijo

It is being reported that Vodafone are in talks with Liberty Global (Owners of UPC) with a view to a possible takeover.

http://irelandoffline.org/2014/12/the-end-of-the-cable/
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/mobile-giants-vodafone-and-bt-considering-mergers-30789131.html

If this happens it will be interesting to see what comes of it, especially when they are involved with the ESB in a joint venture for FTTH.

StaticNoise

To be honest, if Vodafone do buy UPC, I would have to consider moving.

I think that Vodafone are bullies in the world of telecommunication. They're overpriced and not as good as they once were.
Sure, they have the best quality mobile network in Ireland, but they are hemorrhaging customers.[1]
They took over from BT Ireland in the domestic market. They've pulled that one before with other companies too.


I would envisage limits and restrictions being imposed on the UPC network (in terms of speed increases, usage caps, etc.). I know that it is all speculation at present, but I am of the belief that this would be the case.

I hope that UPC/Liberty hold out and don't sell out.


[1]http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/vodafones-irish-customers-cut-spend-by-11pc-in-tough-market-29987345.html

bk

cunnijo wrote: »

http://irelandoffline.org/2014/12/the-end-of-the-cable/

I have to say, I'm very surprised at this article, it is far too critical and pessimistic about UPC and cable.

The vast majority of UPC's network has been upgraded to very high quality coax and the network is VERY fibre deep with fibre running within a few hundred meters of most costumers.

I expect we will see some very exciting developments from UPC in the next year. UPC have already launched 500mb/s in a few cities in Poland and I'd expect to see the same here. UPC are also the leaders in the development of DOCSIS 3.1, which will bring us 1Gb/s speeds over cable within the next two years.

This will push UPC far ahead of Eircoms 100mb/s VDSL and put them in a very competitive position with ESB FTTH. In fact I expect UPC will get 500mb/s to 1Gb/s speeds to more people in Ireland then ESB FTTH will and in a much shorter period of time then the ESB FTTH will take.

I'm particularly surprised at this comment:

Will DOCSIS 3.1 and the super speeds promised in DOCSIS 3.1 really give us anything new. The big problem here is that DOCSIS 3.1 will need a major investment to rollout. Improvements are needed in the core network itself and a much more important issue is that and each and every modem will need to be replaced.

Yes DC3.1 will require new network gear and modems, just like DC3.0 did, but the cost of it will be a fraction of rolling out FTTH!!!!

The reality is that DC3.1 will leave a gradual upgrade path for UPC. DC3.1 is backwards compatible with DC3.0, UPC will be able to run DC3.0 and DC3.1 in tandem. They will be able to continue to offer up to 200mb/s with the existing DC3.0 modems. And up to 1Gb/s with new DC3.1 modems.

For people who want faster speeds, they simply order a new modem, it gets mailed to they and they can replace it themselves. No need for an expensive engineer callout and pulling fiber through ducts, etc. Way, WAY more expensive.

As for UPC losing TV customers, they seem to have for the most part stabilised this, they are losing customers here, but we are talking less then 1% per year (0.002% in the last quarter), hardly something to panic about! I see it more as a reflection of cord cutters, people who are switching to fully online services.

Yes, I agree UPC need to do better in this area, but this is why UPC now considers themselves more to be a broadband company/network then a TV company/network

This article makes it sound like Liberty Global (UPC's owners) are in trouble, actually it is Liberty Global who are in the driving seat and in the strong position here, they have the largest wired broadband network in Europe and doing extremely well from it converting to a broadband network. It is Vodafone who are in trouble with mobile services facing increased competition and falling profit margins as the market matures and is being commoditized.

So while Vodafone is looking to buy Liberty Global to sure up their market and become a stronger triple play company, in reality I see it more as a reverse take over similar to Apple buying Next or Disney buying Pixar. This is why LGI's shares have jumped 10% on the news. John Malone is in the driving seat here.

One area Eamonn got right in this article, is that in the long term, UPC will eventually also have to go FTTH. FTTH is the future in the long term. However UPC are also in a good place here, their network is already very fibre deep, with fibre relatively close to the majority of their customers homes, closer then Eircom FTTC network in many places. It should be relatively straight forward for them to upgrade FTTH. But they can do it gradually as demand requires, they won't be under as much pressure as Eircom, as they will be able to do 1Gb/s and faster over cable. It is only when they start talking about 10Gb/s speeds will they be forced to FTTH.

Nollog

bk wrote: »

Yes, I agree UPC need to do better in this area, but this is why UPC now considers themselves more to be a broadband company/network then a TV company/network

They very much push the TV/Phone angle, TV is their main focus.
Broadband is their stepping stone to do IPTV instead of however it works now though.
Horizon is phase 1.