Premier League Betting Log - ManagerXI

ManagerXI

Hey Folks,

I'm a betting enthusiast when it comes to the Premier League and enjoy analysing each weeks fixtures to find that one bet that they bookies overpriced due to recent form and injuries.

Hopefully this thread will make ye a profit and provide a bit of banter along the way. I will be betting level stakes on every bet and recording the log using level stakes ROI - and not showing any supporters bias along the way:)

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I'm going to start off the log with what I consider to be a very safe bet, albeit with low odds, I think this bet has a ROI of 28% which any gambler will tell you is extremely good.

Man City v Swansea Betting Preview:

Man City are already 8 points off the lead in the Premier League so they have to start racking up the wins with Chelsea talking of going the whole season unbeaten but Swansea are a very tough test with a tight defense when they play away to the big teams and we can expect them to set up to be extremely difficult to break down especially with Aguero back to his best.

Everyone is impressed with Swansea except apparently the bookies so we have seen a drift in Man City to win from 1.29 to 1.4 which is still too short in my opinion against a team of Swansea's quality, especially after they outplayed Arsenal in their last game so confidence will be high. In Montero, Swansea have a top class winger and Bony up front can put away any chances that he can create. Swansea also were able to stop Arsenal from having a shot on target for the opening 43 minutes so they won't be completely overrun by the Man City attack. Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored or assisted nine Premier League goals this season and looks dangerous every time he receives the ball.

Man City also have to think about their Champions League match against Bayern Munich on Tuesday which they need to win to have any chance of progressing in the tournament so their motivation in this game might not be as high as expected even with their poor recent form of 1 win from their last 6 in all competitions whereas Swansea have only lost once in their last 6 league games. Only Southampton (7) have kept more clean sheets than Swansea (5) during this campaign.

David Silva (knee), left-back Aleksandar Kolarov and striker Edin Dzeko (both calf) have all been ruled out for Man City. Vincent Kompany was pictured back in training on Thursday and could face Swansea. Jonjo Shelvey will come back for Swansea after finishing his suspension for a red card against Everton.

Recommended Bet: Swansea +2 Asian Handicap - 1.425 Bet365

ManagerXI

And we're off with a win: Man City 2-1 Swansea

ManagerXI

Man Utd v Hull Betting Preview:

This is not a great weekend for Premier League bettors with short prices, loss of form for a few teams, midweek European matches and important injuries to the old reliables which all make this weekends meetings a minefield due to the home/away fixtures so this weekends bet will be slightly higher risk than normal.

Man Utd are starting to look like a more coherent attacking unit, even with Fellani running around banging into people but it is their defence that remains their achilles heel. They started the last game against Arsenal with a back 3 of Blackett, McNair and Smalling which is easily the most inexperienced defence in the league which is only being saved by De Gea pulling off a string of fine saves. Luke Shaw is unavailable after twisting his ankle to add to the defensive injury list of Blind, Rafael, Jones and Evans. Radamel Falcao and Marcos Rojo have returned for United.

While on paper Hull would be considered relegation fodder as they have won 2 from 12 games and conceded 17 goals in the process they have had an incredibly tough run of fixtures in that stretch facing most of the top teams but have showed they possess a goal threat having scored 2 goals against both Arsenal and Man City. Gaston Ramieriez will be suspended after his red card against Tottenham last week while Hull will also be without striker Abel Hernandez for the game. The Uruguayan has had to travel back to South America where his partner is due to give birth.
While I expect Man Utd to win this game their odds of 1.33 are far too short but due to their defense they will have to score at least twice more than likely to win the game. Manchester United have won the last nine straight matches against Hull City including all six meetings in the Barclays Premier League. Hull have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D4 L6).

Recommended Bet: Man Utd to score 2 or 3 Goals - 1.95 Ladbrokes (Home Team Goal Bands)

Man Utd: De Gea, Smalling, Carrick, Rojo, Valencia, Fellaini, Mata, Di Maria, Young, Rooney, van Persie
Hull: McGregor, Chester, Dawson, Davies, Robertson, Brady, Diame, Elmohamady, Livermore, Ben Arfa, Jelavic

ManagerXI

Man Utd 3-0 Hull

Utd looked very slick today and it was good to see Mata back playing in the center. Falcao returned from injury and looked dangerous so we will see now how Van Gaal will fit him, Rooney and Van Persie into the same team.

The next round of Premier League fixtures starts on Tuesday so I will be back then with my next bet.

chompdown

Great thread! Good work and fantastic write ups.

ManagerXI

West Brom v West Ham:

West Brom (15th) host West Ham (5th) in this evening’s game. West Brom are on a bad run of form at the moment with just 1 win from their last 6 league games and having failed to score in their last 3. In Berahino they have a good goal threat with 7 goals in 13 appearances this season but unfortunately for West Brom he is really their only goal threat as nobody else has scored more than 1 league goal this season whereas West Ham's last seven Premier League goals have been scored by seven different players. West Brom sit just two points above the relegation zone while the impressive West Ham are coming off an impressive win against the inform Newcastle who had won their 6 previous games in all competitions before falling to defeat against West Ham. West Brom record signing striker Brown Ideye was bought for £10m from Dynamo Kiev over the summer but at the moment he is struggling to make the match day squad and from all appearances looks to be a flop.

West Ham have lost only 2 of their away league games this season while scoring an average of 2 goals in those games and they welcome back Enner Valencia from injury who has been a revelation this season and his pace has troubled every defence he has faced and considering that West Brom have Claudio Yacob suspended for this match who would have been tasked with containing Valencia however that job will fall to Mulumbu tonight and while he is comparable, Yacob would have been better suited to reading the game to cut off Valencia's runs. West Brom also have other important defensive injuries with Jonas Olsson, Silvestre Varela and Sebastien Pocognoli with Cristian Gamboa starting in place of Pocognoli at left-back.

In West Hams last game their defense was immense with a back 4 of Cresswell, Tomkins, Collins and Jenkinson who worked very well together to double up on Newcastles players and cover for eachother when caught out of position with Andy Carroll even running back to defend and if they approach this game in the same way then West Brom will struggle to score.

Up front for West Ham alongside the impressive Valencia is the rejuvenated Stewart Downing who has been incredible for West Ham this season now that he is operating at the tip of a midfield diamond and West Ham are perfectly set up to hit teams on the counter which they should have a lot of success with if West Brom attempt to play an open game tonight. Diafra Sakho (West Ham top scorer) is expected back this weekend after aggravating a back injury but West Ham have a readymade replacement in Andy Carroll who has massively improved his work ethic and is an aerial threat from set pieces.

In West Broms last game against Arsenal they were totally dominated for the opening 75 minutes and allowed Arsenal a lot of scoring opportunities while in the game before that West Brom allowed Chelsea 21 shots on goal and West Brom have now won just 3 of their last 16 league games, 2 of which were against Burnley and Leicester. Five of the last seven Premier League meetings between West Ham and West Brom have ended as draws, with one win apiece in the other games in that run.

Recommended Bet: West Ham to win or draw (double chance) - 1.57 Coral

ManagerXI

Captain Kevin Nolans return to the West Ham starting lineup in place of Mark Noble was the catalyst for their come from behind win at West Ham who held on for an impressive win in a typically hard fought manner even when West Brom played with 5 strikers in the closing minutes in what could be best described as a 3-2-1-4 formation with West Brom goalkeeper Ben Foster also wandering around in the West Ham half.

West Brom 1-2 West Ham

ManagerXI

Aston Villa v Leicester Betting Preview:

After avoiding the carnage yesterday where Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham all failed to win odds on against inferior teams I am looking to the bottom of the table for a bet today.

Aston Villa have been performing below expectation this season with a poor record of W4 D4 L6 and they lie in 12th position and this can be largely explained by their lack of goals as they have scored just 8 goals in 14 matches, the lowest in the league. Their form in the league is not great either with a record in their last 6 games of W1 D3 L2 however they are improving now on their overall season form without a defeat in their last 4 league games with draws in that run against this seasons surprise packages West Ham and Southampton and it should be noted that their last 4 home league games were against Southampton, Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal so their home stats are skewed by such a run against the top teams at a time when they were in good form also.

Regarding their lack of goals this season they have welcomed back last seasons top scorer Christian Benteke in their last game after a long injury layoff and he duly scored the winner in that game so now that Villa can go back to playing with their preferred front 3 of Benteke, Agbonlahor and Weimann we should see their average goals per game increase however Weimann will be suspended for this game due to an accumulation of yellow cards. There are some issues with Villas defence at the moment with injuries to Baker, Senderous and Vlaar but their center back stand in's of Okore and Clark have been performing reasonably well while they have the experience of fullbacks Hutton and Cissokho to help negate the threat of Leicesters wingers Schlupp and Mahrez who are starting to find form however as Leicester are playing two out and out wingers with two strikers they have left themselves a bit short handed in the center of the park where Villas 3 man midfield of Cleverly, Westwood and Sanchez can dominate proceedings in the absence of Joe Cole who is out injured for the next two weeks.

Leicester have failed to win a game in the league since beating Man Utd back in September - a run that stretches 9 games including 7 losses and they have the second worse away record in the league with 6 losses in 7 games while scoring just 3 goals and they sit at the bottom of the table as they are the most out of form team in the league at the moment with a record in their last 6 league games of W0 D1 L5 and just before their first goal against QPR they had gone 504 minutes without scoring and failed to get a shot on target at Southampton.

Leicester captain, Wes Morgan, is suspended for this match and his absence will be a big loss in defence, especially when defending set pieces. David Nugent is a doubt with illness which has affected some of the squad but manager Nigel Pearson, who did not name others who were laid low, hopes any bug would have cleared by Sunday.

There is a high likelihood this game will end in a draw with Leicester sitting back and coming to Villa for a draw to stop their losing streak away from home but with Bentekes return they have a player who can unlock a tight defence if he can link up well with Agbonlahor whose pace on the wing will cause problems for Leicester even though the market does not fully agree with me as Villa have gone from 2.3 to 2.55 for the win.

Rcommended Bet: Aston Villa 'Draw No Bet' - 1.73 BetVictor

ManagerXI

Villa did the business despite Leicesters best efforts to send their midfielders to the emergency room while Leicesters main goal threat Leonardo Ulloa also had to go off injured after a tough retaliatory tackle. This was a particularly tough week for stats based gamblers where almost every game bucked the trend but there are two games this weekend that jumped out at me as a good bet so I will post one up after I have researched both fully.

Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester

ManagerXI

This is not a tip but an example of two bets at the same odds but with vastly different expected values.

Paddy Power are offering 1.44 on Arsenal to beat Newcastle this weekend after Newcastle beat league leaders Chelsea last weekend and they are offering 1.44 on Everton to beat QPR who are missing their top scorer and best player Charlie Austin through suspension.

If you want to practice trying to assess value you could compare these two games and try to decide the expected winning percentage of both Arsenal and Everton and from that the value offered by the odds.

I will be back with a tip on Saturday morning.

ManagerXI

Sunderland v West Ham Betting Preview:

Sunderland host an inform West Ham side who have made their best ever start to a Premier League season with 27 points after 15 games while Sunderland have failed to score in 7 of their last 11 Premier League games and 3 of their last 4 and are currently on a 5 game winless streak and their recent form leaves them just 2 points above the relegation zone.

West Ham have surpassed expectations this season and currently sit 4th in the Premier League, just 1 point behind Manchester United. West Ham have the third best away record in the league this season and all the expectations is that West Ham will continue this run of form against a Sunderland team who have won just 2 from their opening 15 games of the season.

West Ham have all their important players back from injury and Sam Allardyce will have to decide between starting Enner Valencia or Andy Carroll who scored 2 goals in West Hams very impressive victory over Swansea last week who can take advantage of West Hams good wide play to score from crosses and set pieces as West Ham have scored 12 headed goals this season, twice as many as any other Premier League side. Diafra Sakho is expected to start up front for West Ham and he has made a great start to life in the Premier League having scored 7 times in his last 8 Premier League appearances for West Ham while Stewart Downing has been incredible this season now that he is playing at the tip of a midfield diamond and has more Premier League assists this season (6 in 14 apps) than he managed in 65 games during his Liverpool career (5).

Sunderland have been involved in five 0-0 draws this season in the Premier League, more than any other side while there has been 25 goals scored in West Hams 7 away games this season so both teams will come into this game with very different game plans but West Ham have the advantage of having an extremely fast counter attack which is their main advantage when playing away and has resulted in them scoring 14 away goals and if Sunderland try to play an open game then West Ham will have the advantage as Sunderland can be expected to play Johnson and Wickham on the wings and they are not great when tracking back after their attack breaks down and their only defensive strength against West Hams style of play is their huge goalkeeper Pantilimon who at 6ft 8in is the favourite when the ball is sent high into the Sunderland box so we have to see if West Ham go for the pace and trickery of Valencia to counter this as Sunderlands expected center back pairing of Brown and O'Shea are in the twilight of their careers and don't have a hope of keeping up with him.

The midfield battle will be extremely important in this match and with Alex Song providing the steel in West Hams spine he will control the game in the middle of the park and Sunderlands central midfield pairing of Rodwell and Larsson have more of a brute strength approach which will be easily countered by Song and Kouyate in midfield who are backed up by the excellent understanding between the West Ham center back pairing of Tomkins and Reid and I expect Sunderland to go with just Fletcher up front who should be left isolated for the vast majority of the game as Sunderland will have to sit deep to counter West Hams pace while Sunderlands defensive midfielder Cattermole does not have the pace required to deal with West Hams interchangeable attacking players and it should be relatively easy for West Ham to play around him.

Recommended Bet: West Ham To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Ladbrokes/Coral/SkyBet/Boylesports

ManagerXI

Sunderland played their best game of the season against West Ham and were a much improved unit but West Ham still managed to edge the game on performance as Sunderland still lack a cutting edge up front as they score less than a goal a game and were gifted a goal in the first half from the penalty spot when Adam Johnson threw himself to the ground as if he had been shot by a tank when he noticed the shadow of James Tomkins behind him. Sunderland have now drawn 10 of their 16 league games this season and they are clearly set up not to lose rather than going for the win.

Sunderland 1-1 West Ham

ManagerXI

Hull v Swansea Betting Preview:

Hull (19th) host Swansea (9th) with both teams currently in poor form. Hull have won just 2 games this season with a recent record of W0 D2 L4 while Swansea have won 6 games this season they are in a slump at the moment with a recent record of W1 D2 L4 however this recent form includes losses against Man City, Tottenham and the in form West Ham. In that run of 6 games, except for the game against Man City, Swansea was the better team in all and it was simply bad luck in front of goal that they don't have a much better points tally however this run has provided us with the value for this weekends bet.

Swansea are a formidable team and they play a very exciting brand of football with a front three of Bony, Sigurdsson and Montero who have caused every team they faced problems this season. 17 of Swansea's 21 league goals this season have been either scored or assisted by one of Wilfried Bony or Gylfi Sigurdsson while Jefferson Montero has been getting the best of every right back with his incredible pace since his arrival from Mexico in the summer and Hulls Ahmed El Mohamady, who played at right back in their last game, does not possess the defensive ability to contain him. Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances (20 goals in 2014). Swansea have no injury concerns ahead of the trip to Hull. Lukasz Fabianski returns in goal after missing the loss to Tottenham through suspension.

Hull are in freefall at the moment having won just one of their last 15 league and cup games and they are without a win in 9 games in the league since beating Crystal Palace at the beginning of October while scoring just 2 goals in their last 8 games. They will be missing some very important players for this game with Tom Huddlestone serving a 4-match ban after his red card and fifth yellow card of the season against Chelsea and Michael Dawson is a out for 3-5 weeks after tearing his hamstring and he has been the heart of Hulls defence this season while Huddlestone will be a major loss in midfield and Hull will struggle to maintain possession with him out of the side while Mohamed Diame will be unavailable until the new year and his powerful runs forward from midfield were almost unstoppable and forced defences to sit a bit deeper than they might have otherwise. Hull averages the lowest shots-per-game ratio this season, with just 9.2 and they are unlikely to get more than that against Swansea.

While I was tempted by the draw no bet market I will go for the more conservative double chance market as Swansea have failed to win in their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.

Recommended Bet: Swansea To Win or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Coral

ManagerXI

Swansea went with an unusual lineup with knocks to Sigurdsson and Montero ruling them out with Gomis getting the nod over Bony however Hulls injuries were more important to the team and they were outclassed by Swansea from start to finish and it was important that they got the three points as they will lose important players to the African Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup next month.

Hull 0-1 Swansea

ManagerXI

Boxing day games are more unpredictable than usual as a lot of teams are unable to maintain their pregame routine and some have to travel large distances on the day of the game instead of the day before so I would recommend keeping your stakes lower than usual and be careful about backing the away team to win.




I have put together some stats that may help you decide on a bet:

*There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 14 of Liverpool's last 15 away games in the Premier League.

*There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Southampton's last 6 away games in the Premier League.

*Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Premier League however they have seen under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches against Stoke in all competitions.

*Leicester have lost 9 of their last 10 matches in the Premier League / There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Tottenham's last 10 games in the Premier League.

*There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Man Utd's last 16 home games in the Premier League / Man Utd have won 7 of their last 8 home matches in the Premier League.

*Hull have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches in the Premier League / There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Sunderland's last 7 games in the Premier League.

*Aston Villa have won just one of the six Premier League meetings with Swansea (W1 D3 L2).

*Arsenal are undefeated in 25 of their last 26 home matches in the Premier League / QPR have lost their last 9 away matches in the Premier League while they have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 away matches in the Premier League.




Whats your best bet?

Collie D

You not keeping this going or have you just not fancied anything? Excellent write-ups and logic.

Six out of six and profit of about 3.50 to a level unit stake by my quick calculation.

ManagerXI

I might be back tomorrow with a bet depending on team news tomorrow... I think most people will know what I'm waiting for:) I like to see a bit more engagement in the thread so I don't feel as I'm talking to myself but will continue to post some tips here regardless.

ManagerXI

Chelsea v Man City Betting Preview:

Top of the table clash and potential title decider if Chelsea win... a bit early in the season to make that assumption but not far off the mark either with Chelsea currently leading the title race by 5 points.

Both teams are missing key players which will have a big impact on this match with Chelsea more than likely happy enough with a draw to maintain their lead over the main title rival and City looking to make up ground but aware of the consequences if they push too hard for the win and leave gaps at the back.

City will be without Yaya Toure who will be a massive loss in the midfield battle while Samir Nasri is expected to be unavailable for another week or two. Mangala is undergoining tests on his groin while new signing Wilfried Bony is still competing in the African Cup Of Nations.

Chelsea have more serious injury concerns with Fabregas unavailable with a hamstring injury and he will not be available to pull the strings in midfield while they are lacking his fantastic link up play which has netted him 15 assists this season and he should break Thierry Henry's record of 20 assists in a season. Main man Diego Costa will also be unavailable after he was confirmed this afternoon as receiving a 3 man ban for stamping on Liverpools Emre Can. Costa has been lethal this season with 17 goals so far and has been involved in 37% of Chelseas league goals this season while Fabregas has been involved in 33%. Drogba is expected to fill in as a lone striker but he is currently a shadow of Costas brilliance and dominance in the opposition box and will not be a match for Kompany.

We can expect Chelsea to set out to contain Man City and try to hit them on the counter mainly through Hazard who will struggle without having the ever present outlet Fabregas offers and Fernando and Fernandinho will cut off the space for him to operate. Both teams are expected to line out with two very defensively minded holding midfielders in Matic and Ramires (Chelsea) and Fernando and Fernandinho will provide the steel for City with Milner doing a job where needed to cut off Oscars space when he switches to the right wing.

I expect this to be a defensive masterclass from Mourinho given his injuries have restricted his options and with City being cautious this will be a very tight game with City being undefeated in their last 6 away games.

Recommended Bet: Man City To Win or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.73 Bet365

ManagerXI

Result: Chelsea 1-1 Man City

lamoss

ManagerXI wrote: »

Result: Chelsea 1-1 Man City

Good picking , you are doing well !

Collie D

lamoss wrote: »

Good picking , you are doing well !

Indeed. Seven out of seven and about 70% profit to level stake. No doubt it all goes tits up when I follow.

Keep up the good work.

ManagerXI

Leicester v West Ham Betting Preview

West Ham are coming up against a Leicester side who are woefully out of form and looking to almost certainly be relegated. Leicester have failed to score in their last 3 home matches in the Premier League while only having 1 win in their last 10 home league games. Leicester have scored just three goals in their last nine Premier League games at the King Power Stadium and have gone five hours and 15 minutes since they lasted netted in front of their own fans. On the flip side West Ham are not great for the win away from home and they have struggled to keep clean sheets but they have the better midfield and they will battle Leicester who have gone for an attacking lineup without someone to pull the strings in midfield and control the game where West Ham have Downing to keep Leicester pinned back and punish them on the counter attack supported by Kouyate who returns to his usual midfield position.

The odds are simply too big on West Ham due to their away stats but the matchup is more in favour of West Ham than the bookies are suggesting and there is a decent bit of value available.

Recommended Bet: West Ham To Win Or Draw Double Chance - 1.73 Bet365

ManagerXI

Unfortunately Leicester nicked an undeserved winner 4 minutes from the end of the game to put up the first loss, it was inevitable and a good example of why bankroll management is as important if not more so than picking value bets.

Newcastle v Tottenham Betting Preview:

Newcastle come into this game with 9 players unavailable through injuries and suspension and they are in a bad run having lost their last 5 Premier League games and they have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 league games and they appeared to have given up on their season in their last game against Liverpool where influential midfielder Sissoko was sent off and is suspended for this game.

Tottenham are not in great form themselves and put in a poor performance last time out against Villa with a makeshift defense struggling to deal with the power and positioning of Benteke but they don't have that same threat to deal with against a toothless Newcastle who are also missing their most creative player and have little to play for mainly due to the poor performances of the teams below them. Dier and Vertonghen return to Tottenhams defence which will make them much harder to break down and a single goal from the in form Harry Kane could settle this.

We will play this a bit safer with the draw no bet market as the season is starting to wind down for both of these teams and their motivation levels are questionable.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham To Win ' Draw No Bet' @ 1.67 Bet365

ManagerXI

Newcastle 1-3 Tottenham

ManagerXI

Now that the Premier League season is finished I won't be posting any more tips in this thread. Hopefully a few people made some money from my tips along the way and I will be back next season with a slightly different approach.

Thread Stats:

Strike rate: 89%
Level Stakes Profit: 3.96
Level Stakes ROI: 43.9%

In other words if you bet £100 on each of my tips you would have made a profit of £396.

Have a good summer folks and if you are looking for a bet for the Champions League final I would recommend Barcelona to score exactly 2 or 3 goals @ 2.1 with Ladbrokes.

ManagerXI

Barcelona 3-1 Juventus.