Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

1:45 Ascot

I think the conditions here might just play into the hands of Biographer here. A lot of this field are unproven or aren’t guaranteed to go on this ground at all. He has been poor this year, but his last run was his best this season and ran a decent race in this last year with what looked a deeper field. There is a chance that we should be sticking with the 7/1 to place with bet365 but in for a penny in for a pound and I’ll chance EW at 28/1 in a few places as well.

1 Point ew 28/1 Generally & 1 point place 7/1 Bet365

2:55 Ascot

Chicquita wasn’t great in the Arc but that is understandable in that race. She is relatively fresh for this year and although we don’t know what the story with the ground is, she should be favourite here. On form the race is between her and Hadaatha and they both look overpriced but I’ll go with the Aobrien charge by a small margin.

1 Point win 13/2
3:30 Ascot

Kingsbarns was 3rd in this last year in what was definatly a stronger race,. He hasn’t done a lot this year but goes on the ground and in a shockingly poor Group 1 he may be able to get back to form here. The former Racing Post Trophy winner on soft ground won’t get a better opportunity than this and looks an unbelievable price at 18/1.

2 Points EW 18/1 Various

Ascot 4:05

Al Kazeem ran well in the Arc again this year, and appears to be on the way back to decent form. There may be nothing between him and Ruler of the world again here and when I look at the field he looks very hard to knock out of the places here at 18/1 in the without the Fav market on Ladbrokes. He also stands a decent chance of grabbing 2nd behind the fav.

1 Point EW 18/1 w/o Fav Ladbrokes.

Ascot 4:45

Both Belgian Bill and Hawkeyethenoo stick out for me here at the prices. Hawkeye has always looked as if 1 mile might not be a disadvantage and will go on the ground. Belgian Bill has looked likely a couple of times at this course and if he can go on the ground is certainly overpriced at 28/1. Im also going to have a just in case win bet on Heavy Metal as has been a revelation this year and is well capable of just bouncing back to form at the right time for a trainer who picks up these regularly.

1 Point EW Belgian Bill 28/1 5 Places
1 Point EW Hawkeyrthenoo 33/1 5 places
½ Point win Heavy Metal 40/1

2:35 Cheltenham

Ackertac looks to have been given a serious chance by the handicapper here. He has a good record fresh and will surely be readied for this today. If his 7lbs claimer can be worth his claim here he has a very light weight and would be difficult to beat on his best form.

2 Points win 12/1

3:45 Cheltenham

Golden Chieftain doesn’t have the best record fresh but he has course form and ran a couple of eye-catching races last term. He is down to a winnable mark and is bound to win this year soon enough, so I’ll have to follow him until he does. 14/1 looks value

1 Point win 14/1 Sporting Bet

famagusta

They are very happy with An saighdiur and he could be worth a 10ew at 50/1

longshotvalue

aidankk wrote: »

1:45 Ascot

I think the conditions here might just play into the hands of Biographer here. A lot of this field are unproven or aren’t guaranteed to go on this ground at all. He has been poor this year, but his last run was his best this season and ran a decent race in this last year with what looked a deeper field. There is a chance that we should be sticking with the 7/1 to place with bet365 but in for a penny in for a pound and I’ll chance EW at 28/1 in a few places as well.

1 Point ew 28/1 Generally & 1 point place 7/1 Bet365

Lovely Start 13pts profit.. :-)

longshotvalue

2:20 Ascot

Racking my brains to see what surprise could happen in the sprint and the 4 places ew with bet365 have made up my mind. Gathering Power looks to be steadily improving and at 50/1 with 4 places looks the best value in this. I don’t think he would be coming at all without some kind of chance as the stable also have Viztoria. It’s more of a gut feeling selection but I’d be annoyed if I didn’t pull the trigger after looking at it this morning

1 Point EW 4 places Bet365 50/1

Gringo180

aidankkk wrote: »

2:20 Ascot

Racking my brains to see what surprise could happen in the sprint and the 4 places ew with bet365 have made up my mind. Gathering Power looks to be steadily improving and at 50/1 with 4 places looks the best value in this. I don’t think he would be coming at all without some kind of chance as the stable also have Viztoria. It’s more of a gut feeling selection but I’d be annoyed if I didn’t pull the trigger after looking at it this morning

1 Point EW 4 places Bet365 50/1

I like the look of Baccarat, theres a big race in him and the ground may be to his liking. 25/1.